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Instantaneous precipitation can often cause devastating disasters on the Earth's surface. Continuous increases in extreme precipitation around the world have caused widespread concern, and it is necessary to study the extreme hourly precipitation over a large scale and long time series. Using specific numbers of unique hourly precipitation point data from 1980 to 2019, our research found that there are different spatial patterns regarding the frequency and intensity of extreme hourly precipitation in Mainland China, but the clear spatial pattern of being weak in the west and strong in the east of China. Most extreme hourly precipitation events occurred from June to August in the north of China and from April to October in the south of China. Afternoon and midnight are the peak periods of extreme precipitation events in southern China. The frequency of extreme hourly precipitation in the whole of China had increased by 0.7 hr/10a and increased significantly in the northwest and southeast of China. The average intensity of extreme hourly precipitation has decreased by 0.1 mm·hr−1/10a in the whole of China. While the maximum intensity has increased in local areas, the trend of changes is not significant in the whole of China. We have discovered that rapid urbanization is likely to be responsible for the frequency of extreme hourly precipitation in China. It is urgent to enact flood protection measures because this change is expected to worsen in the future with intensified urbanization in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland cities were proposed by the International Wetland Convention Organization for the protection of urban wetlands. Few studies have performed land cover classifications for internationally recognized wetland cities or explored what contribution the classification results can make to the establishment of additional wetland cities to date. Based on Sentinel-1 and 2 data, this study used a 10-fold random forest method to classify the land cover of the first six wetland cities recognized in China. A land cover dataset, which had a resolution of 10 m and included four wetland types, was obtained and the wetland area and protected wetland areas of the six cities were calculated. The results showed that (1) the classification accuracy of six cities was good, the overall accuracy was above 90%, and the Kappa coefficient was above 0.88. (2) Cropland or forested areas were the most common non-wetland land coverage type in wetland cities and accounted for more than 20% or 40% of the land coverages, while water was the most common wetland type and accounted for more than 2% of the land coverages. From 2015 to 2020, the built area in most cities increased, while cropland and forest decreased significantly. (3) The wetland rate was 6.68–37.56% and the wetland protection rate was 49.48–73.74% in the six wetland cities. From 2015 to 2020, the wetland rate of the six cities were relatively stable, and the wetland protection rate of inland cities (Yinchuan, Changde, Harbin and Changshu) increased significantly, while those of coastal cities (Haikou and Dongying) decreased, which might be related to the change in coastline. Therefore, we found that the wetlands in these cities were well protected. Land cover classification for wetland cities can provide a reference for using remote sensing techniques used to monitor internationally wetland cities while also supporting the creation of additional wetland cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake are the two largest freshwater lakes in China. They play a critical ecological role in regional sustainable development, which is closely related to water occurrence (WO). This study aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal changes, ecological impacts, and influencing factors of WO in the two lakes. First, this study utilized the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and all available Landsat images to retrieve the time series of WO in Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake on a two-year scale from 1989 to 2020. Then, the study explored the landscape variation intensity, landscape structure, and their ecological impacts on net primary production (NPP) and total nitrogen (TN) based on the landscape transfer rate (LTR), landscape indices, and geostatistical connectivity analysis. Finally, the study investigated the natural and human factors that influence the changes in WO. The major conclusions include the following: (1) the mean WO showed a significantly decreasing trend in the two lakes from 1989 to 2020. According to the LTR, the landscape variation in Dongting Lake was more intense before 2002, while after 2002, the landscape variation in Poyang Lake was more intense. (2) The landscape structure of WO gradually fragmented and diversified, along with decreasing hydrological connectivity in the two lakes. (3) The increase in NPP in Poyang Lake and the increase in TN in Dongting Lake were closely correlated with the changes in WO. (4) The upstream runoff showed a significantly positive correlation with the mean WO in Poyang Lake and the annual precipitation showed a significantly positive correlation with the mean WO in Dongting Lake; the influences of natural factors on WO changes became weaker. This study reinforces the understanding of long-term changes in the water body in Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) replaced the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), providing guidance and direction for the future development of countries around the world. Both MDG and SDG have established multiple indicators to achieve environmental sustainability. However, few studies have compared the changes in the ecological environment during the two periods. Therefore, this study selected the seven major river basins in China as the study area and comprehensively assessed the changes in ecosystem service importance (ESI) within different basins in the MDG and SDG periods based on six ecosystem services, including habitat quality, soil conservation, water yield, carbon storage, grain production, and aesthetic landscape. Specifically, the changes from 2000 to 2015 and 2015 to 2020 were used to represent MDG and SDG periods, respectively. The results showed that the overall ESI of the seven major river basins showed an increasing trend in both periods, and the proportion of extremely important basins reached 20.39% in 2020, mostly distributed in the Yangtze River basin and the Pearl River basin. Except for carbon storage, other ecosystem services were restored in the SDG period. However, COVID-19 and a series of sudden disasters in 2020 have greatly affected grain production and the aesthetic landscape. The fluctuation of habitat quality also indicated that although the ecological environment has a trend of recovery, there was still some degradation compared to 20 years ago. National protection policies and restoration projects have gradually improved the ecological environment of the seven river basins and are striving to reach the SDG standards step by step. However, many problems still need to be solved urgently, such as the reduction of ecological land, the increase in carbon emissions, and the weak resilience to disasters. China has made significant positive progress in MDG, and more efforts are needed to achieve the SDG goals in the future. [Display omitted] • The changes in ecosystem services and their importance of the seven major river basins in China were explored. • The ecosystem service importance has steadily increased in the MDG and SDG periods. • China ecological policies and restoration projects have been essential to mitigate the environment degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depletion of water resources has threatened water security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China. However, the relative importance of precipitation and urbanization to water storage change has not been sufficiently studied. In this study, both terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) change in Jing-Jin-Ji from 1979 to the 2010s were investigated, based on the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and the EartH2Observe (E2O) outputs, and we used a night light index as an index of urbanization. The results showed that TWS anomaly varied in three stages: significant increase from 1981 to 1996, rapid decrease from 1996 to 2002 and increase from 2002 to the 2010s. Simultaneously, GWS has decreased with about 41.5 cm (500% of GWS in 1979). Both urbanization and precipitation change influenced urban water resource variability. Urbanization was a relatively important factor to the depletion of TWS (explains 83%) and GWS (explains 94%) since the 1980s and the precipitation deficit explains 72% and 64% of TWS and GWS variabilities. It indicates that urbanization coupled with precipitation deficit has been a more important factor that impacted depletion of both TWS and GWS than climate change only, in the Jing-Jin-Ji region. Moreover, we suggested that the cumulative effect should be considered when discussing the relationship between influence factors and water storage change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands play an important role in regional development and environmental protection. Under the impact of natural and artificial factors, the plateau wetlands have degenerated and even disappeared, resulting in serious problems for society and the ecological environment. It is necessary to establish a reasonable risk assessment method to evaluate the risk of wetland degradation, and then to analyze changes in the range and features of risk. For this work, the Zogie Plateau wetland was selected as the study area. For this site, a wetland degradation risk assessment method was established based on the conceptual model of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The method included nine indicators used to analyze the wetland hazard index, wetland vulnerability index, and wetland degradation risk synthetically. From the spatial-temporal pattern, the wetland degradation risk was analyzed using data from 2000 to 2014. The calculated results revealed the following: (1) from 2000 to 2014, the wetland hazard index (WHI) showed a trend of increase, the value of which increased from 0.29 to 0.42, with a growth rate of 44.83%. Similarly, the wetland vulnerability index (WVI) significantly increased from 0.30 to 0.54, with a growth rate of 80%. Over the same time, the total wetland area decreased from 3910.25 km 2 to 2777.38 km 2 , a reduction of 28.97%. (2) Using the equidistant method, the risk value was divided into three risk grades. The wetland degradation risk in the whole region is increasing, and the risk rank has changed from the low risk zone (0.092) to the medium risk zone (0.25). The degradation risk becomes greater with distance from the center to fringe areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, the largest coal consumer in the world, is one of the countries that experience the most coal fires. Hence, it is critical for China to monitor coal fires and carry out coal fire monitoring, assessment, and appropriate suppression work. The Wuda coalfield, located in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, was selected as the study area. This paper was aiming to analyze spatiotemporal changes of coal fires located in Wuda of China from 2000 to 2015 and focused on the assessment of fire protection project during 2006–2008. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus images were used to detect changes in coal fires over the last 16 years by utilizing a generalized single-channel method to retrieve land surface temperature data and natural breaks extracting coal fire zones. The results showed that: 1) the changes of coal fires area represented obvious three stages: Stage I (2000–2006) was before the fire suppression project with fire spread and expansion; Stage II (2006–2008) was the implementation of this project with rapid reduction of fire area; Stage III (2008–2015) was after this project with stable fire area at a low level; 2) the fire suppression work was highly successful; the area of coal fires basically remained at 192.98 ha, a reduction by 45.74% from 2000 and 62.40% from 2006 (before fire suppression projects); 3) fire suppression work in the south (zone F) and in the northwest (zone A) was the most successful, while some new patches sporadically appeared in other regions (zone B, C and D); 4) coal fire suppression methods have led to significant destruction of local geomorphology; 5) it was difficult to completely extinct coal fires underground with current suppression method. Compared with previous studies, this research paid more attention to the estimation of fire suppression projections which provided an available way for environment decision makers and coal energy producers to qualitatively assess the status and effectiveness of coal fire suppression projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the variation and patterns of vegetation coverage in the Yellow River Basin, as well as to promote regional ecological protection and maintain ecological construction achievements, MOD13Q1 data at a resolution of 250 m were used to calculate the annual average normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a time series from 2000 to 2010. Using a variation coefficient, a Theil–Sen Median trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, and the Hurst index method, this study investigated the temporal and spatial variations of vegetation coverage characteristics of the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that (1) the vegetation coverage of the Yellow River appeared to have an overall trend of high in the southeast and west and low in the northwest; (2) the averaged NDVI of the whole basin fluctuated in a range of 0.3 to 0.4 from 2000 to 2010 (from 2000 to 2004 there were larger variations and these have been growing rapidly since 2005); (3) the NDVI was stable, 73.4% of the vegetation-coverage area fluctuated with a low-to-medium amplitude, while 27.6% of the area varied by a large amplitude; (4) the regions with improved vegetation coverage (62.9%) were far greater than the degraded regions (27.7%), while the sustained invariant area accounted for 9.4% of the total vegetation coverage regions; and (5) 86% of the vegetation-covered area was positively sustainable. The areas with sustainable improvement accounted for 53.7% of the total vegetation coverage area; the invariant area accounted for 7.8%. The area with sustainable degradation was 24.5%; the future variation in trends of the residual (14%) could not be determined. Therefore, continuous attention must be given to the variation in trends of vegetation in the sustainably degraded and underdetermined regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eco-environment is dynamic and shows a continuous process of long-term change. It is helpful for policymakers to know the status of the regional eco-environment through accurate evaluations of the history and current situation of the regional eco-environment. The remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model of China was established in this study by using four indexes: wetness, greenness, dryness, and heat. Knowledge granulation of the RSEIs were carried out, and a method to determine the weights of the knowledge granulation entropy of the indexes based on their characteristics was proposed. This study used Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from the Google Cloud Computing Platform to study and calculate the eco-environmental quality of China from 2000–2017. The overall eco-environmental quality in China tended to improve from 2000–2017, although there were large areas of ecological degradation from 2009–2014. The eco-environment of eastern China was better than that of western China. Most of the national ecological areas were third-level ecological areas, which had moderate environmental quality. Dryness was the most important factor affecting the quality of the eco-environment, followed by greenness, which reflected the increasing environmental damage caused by human activities in China in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal changes of open-surface water bodies in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) have profound influences on sustainable economic development, and are also closely relevant to water scarcity in China. However, long-term changes of open-surface water bodies in the YRB have remained poorly characterized. Taking advantage of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, this study processed 75,593 scenes of Landsat images to investigate the long-term changes of open-surface water bodies in the YRB from 1984 to 2018. In this study, we adopted the percentile-based image composite method to collect training samples and proposed a multiple index water detection rule (MIWDR) to quickly extract the open-surface water bodies. The results indicated that (1) the MIWDR is suitable for the long-term and large-scale Landsat water bodies mapping, especially in the urban regions. (2) The areas of permanent water bodies and seasonal water bodies were 29,076.70 km2 and 21,526.24 km2, accounting for 57.46% and 42.54% of the total open-surface water bodies in the YRB, respectively. (3) The permanent water bodies in the YRB increased along with the decreases in the seasonal water bodies from 1984 to 2018. In general, the total open-surface surface water bodies in the YRB experienced an increasing trend, with an obvious spatial heterogeneity. (4) The changes of open-surface water bodies were associated with the climate changes and intense human activities in the YRB, however, the influences varied among different regions and need to be further investigated in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban water bodies in China showed a significant spatial autocorrelation in spatial distribution. • About 40% and 60% of total cities were detected with a mutation point in urban permanent and seasonal water bodies, respectively. • GDP explained about 13 %∼35 % of spatiotemporal variations of urban water bodies in China. Urban water bodies constitute a vital element within the urban ecosystem. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal changes in urban water bodies and their relationship with economic development in China is critical for sustainable development. However, previous studies usually investigated the spatiotemporal changes of urban water bodies at discrete time points and ignored the relationship between urban water bodies and economic development. Here, this study first corrected freely available water body products based on spatiotemporal majority filter, thereby obtaining an improved yearly urban water body dataset. Then, the research adopted Moran's I and Anselin Local Moran's I to explore the spatial distribution patterns of urban water bodies and employed linear regression and segmented linear regression to investigate the temporal abrupt change and long-term trend of urban water bodies. Finally, we used geodetector to evaluate the relative contributions of GDP to the spatial heterogeneity of trends in urban water bodies. The study revealed a significant spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of urban water bodies, particularly notable in the "High-High" cluster within the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas. It was observed that approximately 40 % and 60 % of total cities experienced an abrupt change in permanent and seasonal urban water bodies, respectively. Specifically, the majority of these abrupt changes occurred during 2010–2013. When considering both long-term trends and abrupt changes, permanent urban water bodies in Chinese cities exhibited primarily a steadily increasing trend, while seasonal water bodies in Chinese cities displayed two distinct temporal patterns: a steadily increasing trend and a decreasing trend followed by a subsequent increasing trend. Furthermore, it was noted that GDP exhibited a significantly positive correlation with the temporal changes of permanent urban water bodies from 2000 to 2020 at the national scale while it first showed a significantly negative correlation with the temporal changes of seasonal urban water bodies from 2000 to 2012 and then showed a significantly positive correlation from 2012 to 2020 on a national scale. In conclusion, we found that GDP played a more important role in driving the spatial heterogeneity of trends in urban water bodies during 2012–2020 compared to 2000–2012, with the relative contribution of ∼ 32.5 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of remote sensing to monitor surface water bodies has gradually matured. Long-term serial water change analysis and floods monitoring are currently research hotspots of remote sensing hydrology. However, these studies are also faced with some problems, such as coarse temporal or spatial resolution of some remote sensing data. In general, flood monitoring requires high temporal resolution, and small-scale surface water extraction requires high spatial resolution. The machine learning method has been proven to be effective against long-term serial surface water extraction, such as random forests (RFs). MODIS data are well suited for large-scale surface water dynamic analysis and flood monitoring because of its short return cycle and medium spatial resolution. In this paper, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China was selected as the study area, and two MODIS products (MOD09A1 and MOD13Q1) and RF method were used to extract the surface water from 2000 to 2016. Considering the disadvantages of temporal or spatial resolution of these two MODIS products, this study also presents a data fusion method to combine them and get higher spatiotemporal resolution water results. Finally, 762 surface water maps from 2000 to 2016 are obtained, whose temporal and spatial resolution is every eight days and 250 m, respectively. In addition, water extent variation is analyzed and compared to observed precipitation data. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) this constructed approach for long-term serial surface water extraction based on the RF classifier is feasible, and a good fusion method is used to obtain the surface water body with higher spatiotemporal resolution; (2) the maximum area of the surface water extent is 48.53 × 103 km2, and seasonal and permanent water areas are 20.51 × 103 km2 and 28.01 × 103 km2, respectively; (3) surface water area is increasing in the YRB, such that seasonal water area decreased by 3450 km2, and the permanent water area increased by 3565 km2 in 2001–2015; (4) precipitation is the main factor causing variation in the surface water bodies, and they both show an increasing trend in 2000–2016. As such, the approach is worth referring to other remote sensing applications, and these products are very both valuable for water resource management and flood monitoring in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature and precipitation are considered to be the most important indicators affecting the green-up date. Sensitivity of the green-up date to temperature and precipitation is considered to be one of the key indicators to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We selected the main grassland types for analysis, including temperate steppe, temperate meadow steppe, upland meadow, and lowland meadow. This study investigates the variation in key meteorological indicators (daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation) between 2001 and 2018. We then examined the partial correlation and sensitivity of green-up date (GUD) to Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation. Our analysis indicated that the average GUD across the whole area was DOY 113. The mean GUD trend was −3.1 days/decade and the 25% region advanced significantly. Tmax and Tmin mainly showed a decreasing trend in winter (p > 0.05). In spring, Tmax mainly showed an increasing trend (p > 0.05) and Tmin a decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Precipitation showed no significant (p > 0.05) change trend and the trend range was ±10 mm/decade. For temperate steppe, the increase in Tmin in March promotes green-up (27.3%, the proportion of significant pixels), with a sensitivity of −0.17 days/°C. In addition, precipitation in April also promotes green-up (21.7%), with a sensitivity of −0.32 days/mm. The GUDs of temperate meadow steppe (73.9%), lowland meadow (65.9%), and upland meadow (22.1%) were mainly affected by Tmin in March, with sensitivities of −0.15 days/°C, −0.13 days/°C, and −0.14 days/°C, respectively. The results of this study reveal the response of vegetation to climate warming and contribute to improving the prediction of ecological changes as temperatures increase in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the widespread presence of noise, such as clouds and cloud shadows, continuous, high spatiotemporal-resolution dynamic monitoring of lake water extents is still limited using remote sensing data. This study aims to take an approach to mapping continuous time series of highly-accurate lake water extents. Four lakes from diverse regions of China were selected as cases. In order to reduce the impact of noise and ensure high spatial and temporal resolution of the final results, two sets of MODIS products (including MOD09A1 and MOD13Q1) are used to extract water bodies. This approach mainly comprises preliminary classification, post processing and data fusion. The preliminary classification used the Random Forest (RF) classifier to efficiently and automatically obtain the initial classification results. Post-processing is implemented to repair the classification results affected by noise as much as possible. The processed results of the two sets of products are fused by using the Homologous Data-Based Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Fusion Method (HDSTAFM), which reduces the effect of noise and also improve the temporal and spatial resolution for the final water results. We determined the accuracy using Landsat-based water results, and the values of overall accuracy (OA), user's accuracy (UA), producer's accuracy (PA), and kappa coefficients (KC) are mostly greater than 0.9. Good correlation was achieved for a time series of water area and altimetry data, obtained by multiple satellites, and also for water-level data selected from hydrological stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formulation of different ecological zone plans according to the corresponding protection targets and the necessity of proper conservation policy is one of the measures to achieve the goal of ecological conservation in China. In order to clarify the interrelation among key ecological zone plans, this paper carried out the research on spatial relation of priority areas of biodiversity conservation and three key ecological areas (key ecological function areas, key regions of ecological service function, national nature reserves) and the research on ecological conditions, based on multi-scale ecological spatial theme information, which incorporates elements like ecological quality and type, and by the aid of spatial information analysis and GIS modeling. The results showed a contrastively fine spatial consistency with 68.8% of priority areas of biodiversity conservation overlapping with three key ecological areas. Although the environment in priority areas of biodiversity conservation were in good conditions, protection pressure is also increasing, powerful supervision and protection should not be ignored. The environmental conditions in the overlapping areas, as a whole, were superior to those in the non-overlapping areas. Since two areas have different characteristics, targeted protection measures should be formulated based on this difference, which will be very important for biodiversity conservation in priority areas of biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on multi-source data, this paper evaluated the economic value of ecological services in the Yeyahu Wetland Nature Reserve, Beijing, China. The ecological services of wetland included gas regulation, water quality improvement, biodiversity maintenance, erosion control, water supply, recreational opportunity, raw material supply and existence value. Multiple conventional evaluation methods were used to calculate the value of eight wetland services. The results showed that significant values came from biodiversity maintenance and recreational opportunity. The main reasons were as follows. Firstly, Yeyahu Wetland Nature Reserve was the habitat for migrant birds, and government had payed more efforts to protect precious birds. Secondly, the population is large in Beijing. People enjoyed going outside and enjoyed the natural and artificial wetland scenes. At the same time, most people were prepared to pay for wetland conservation. The decline of vegetation cover made the economic value of erosion control the lowest. While the shrink of water resource and the deteriorative water quality caused the economic value of water supply lower. The evaluation results could help decision-makers understand the present status of the Yeyahu Wetland Nature Reserve and provide a scientific basis for strategic decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the world's third largest sugar consumer and fourth largest sugar producer, and approximately 90% of sugar comes from sugarcane in China. Understanding the influence of climate change on sugarcane planting patterns and their suitability is conducive to the strategic decisions related to future agricultural adaptation. In this study, based on climatic resources and climate hazard indexes, a new climatic suitability index of sugarcane (CSI S) was established. A CSI S of the current climate period (1981–2010) was proposed for investigating the present planting pattern of sugarcane based on historical climate observations. We also projected the future changes in the CSI S and discussed the variation in the planting patterns of sugarcane in the middle of the 21st century (2020–2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario using projection data from the CMIP5. The regions with a CSI S >0.2 had influence on sugarcane planting. The results of the CSI S in the current climate period showed that sugarcane is distributed in areas with a CSI S ≥ 0.2, while areas with the highest sugarcane yield correspond to areas with a CSI S ≥ 0.6. The areas of sugarcane planting in China can be classified into three grades: plantable area (0.2 ≤ CSI S < 0.4), suitable area (0.4 ≤ CSI S < 0.6) and optimal area (CSI S ≥ 0.6). In the middle 21st century, suitable sugarcane planting area grades showed an increase under the projection of the RCP4.5 scenario. The plantable area was extended to the south of Shandong Province and the north bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, mainly because the frost hazard was alleviated and the heat index increased. In addition to the increase in heat conditions, an increase in total solar radiation was also found to play a role in the expansion of suitable areas in Chongqing in western China. The optimal area covers southern China, Jiangxi and southern Hunan in central China and eastern Zhejiang in eastern China. By the end of the 21st century, this positive effect was further expanded, but for Hainan Province, due to intense heat accumulation and intensified drought, heat injury occurred; thus, emphasis of sugarcane planting in this area should be placed on disaster prevention. In central and southwestern China, the CSI S still has great potential to reach saturation so that more efforts should be implemented to expand the planting area and improve the yield quality and sugar content. • Climatic suitability index of sugarcane was established to evaluate the suitability for sugarcane planting. • The risk of planting sugarcane in the southern China will increase due to intensive drought and heat events in future. • The risk of planting sugarcane in the central China will be mitigated by less frosts and increased heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]