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Reducing carbon emissions has become an urgent task in China. As the category with the largest economic and emissions contribution to the industry, the carbon emissions research of the manufacturing industry is particularly important. This paper uses the LMDI method to decompose manufacturing carbon emissions into seven influencing factors (i.e., population, urbanization, economic development, investment share, energy intensity, energy structure and emission intensity), in order to explore the factors driving manufacturing carbon emissions during 2003–2018. Then, the paper analyzes the decoupling relationship between manufacturing investment and carbon emissions in 30 provinces. Finally, three scenarios are developed to project future manufacturing emissions at the provincial level up to 2035, and whether manufacturing emissions in 30 provinces can realize peak is discussed. The paper results in three main findings. First, we find that energy intensity played the most important role in decreasing the manufacturing emissions during the whole study period, while the economic development and investment share were the main effect promoting manufacturing carbon emissions. Second, China experienced a process from weak decoupling to strong decoupling between manufacturing invest and emissions. Third, China's manufacturing carbon emissions can only achieve the carbon peaking target in 2030 under the High scenario, and 7 provinces cannot reach the peak before 2035 under the three scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to support the emissions reduction options in manufacturing industry effectively, it is necessary to quantify the final demand embedded manufacturing consumption (DEMC) emissions which can be estimated by converting intermediate manufacturing consumption into all final demand categories. Here, we quantify the DEMC emissions in China's 30 provinces during 2007–2017 using a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model and the modified hypothetical extraction method (HEM). Then, we analyze impacts of four factors (including emissions multipliers, consumption structure, investment efficiency, and investment scale) on the DEMC emissions. Finally, considering a large driving effect of investment scale on manufacturing emissions, we conduct four scenarios to quantify the mitigation potential of DEMC emissions during 2020–2035. We find that from 2007 to 2012, the DMEC emissions increased doubled, while during 2012–2017, it decreased from 1217 to 634 Mt. The capital-intensive manufacturing and the labor-intensive manufacturing industries were main sources of intra- and inter-sectoral emissions, respectively. Investment scale was the main driver of the growth in DEMC emissions during 2007–2015, while it led to a reduction of DEMC emissions during 2015–2017. Emission multipliers had the largest positive impact on the reduction of DEMC emissions during the whole period. Consumption structure increased DEMC emissions during 2007–2012, while with the consumption structure shift towards knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry, it induced a reduction of DEMC emissions during 2012–2017. Moreover, implementing an integrated mitigation measures (including reducing emissions multipliers, decreasing investment efficiency, and adjusting consumption structure) could help China to realize the emissions peaking target. However, there are still 8 provinces whose DEMC emissions are unlikely to peak before 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the linkage between financial development (FD) and carbon emissions is important for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies investigating how carbon emissions decouple from FD. Here, we investigate the relationship between FD and carbon emissions by using the decoupling model based on cross-province data of China during 2000-2019. Then, we use the decomposition method to analyze the nine drivers of decoupling elasticity of FD and CO 2 emissions. We found that China experienced weak decoupling and strong negative decoupling in most years. Only the finance develops at a very high level; the FD had spare capacities to promote the reduction in the carbon emissions. For example, several developed provinces (e.g., Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangdong) realized strong decoupling after 2012. The reduction in energy intensity and the increase of foreign direct investment promoted the decoupling of FD from carbon emissions. During the financial recession period, developing a bank-based financial market helped the emissions reduction. Once financial crisis is overcome, developing a market-based financial market promoted the decoupling of FD from emissions. This is because that with the fast FD, the development of stock market contributed to emission reductions through technological improvement, while the bank loans inhibited the decoupling process through the expansion of capital-labor inputs. Overall, these results help in the assessment of the emissions impacts of FD and in addressing climate change problems., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)