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Wildfires are becoming a global natural disaster under climate change. A worthwhile concern is that the rainfall thresholds that trigger debris flows in catchments affected by recent wildfires are much lower than those that trigger debris flows in catchments with similar environments but that have not experienced wildfires. In this study, we investigated a major post‐fire debris flow event in Xiangjiao catchment triggered by heavy rainfall in 2021. Through the combination of field observation, laboratory experiments and several numerical models (rainfall interception, infiltration, erosion and runoff models), the physical mechanistic analysis and numerical simulation of the post‐fire debris flow in Xiangjiao catchment was carried out. Results show that the simulated deposited area, erosion depth, and the occurrence time of debris‐flow initiation correlate well with the actual situation. It is demonstrated that the numerical simulation method used in this study can be used to effectively describe the characteristics of the initial and propagation stages of the post‐fire debris flow generated by runoff and provide important insights and guidance for the prediction and prevention of debris‐flow disasters in catchments affected by wildfire. Plain Language Summary: Wildfires are becoming more and more common under more frequent extreme weather. After the wildfire, the overall environment would be substantially changed, which will lead to more frequent debris‐flow disasters. Consequences of these changes are worthy to be deeply investigated. In this study, we investigated a major 2021 post‐fire debris flow event in Xiangjiao catchment, China, triggered by heavy rainfall. Through the combination of field observation, laboratory experiments, and numerical models, the physical mechanistic analysis and numerical simulation of the post‐fire debris flow in Xiangjiao catchment was carried out. Key Points: The mechanism of post‐fire debris flows caused by runoff in Xiangjiao catchment is analyzedUsing multiple numerical models and multi‐source data, the 2021 Xiangjiao post‐fire debris flow is simulatedThe numerical simulation results are analyzed and correlated well with the field investigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In tectonically active steep mountain belts, such as those in west Sichuan in China, frequent landslide disasters can occur during the rainy season. High-locality landslides often initiate with the failure of fractured rock masses or regolith near the ridge of a high and steep slope. Often, these events occur suddenly in the sense that people downslope are caught by surprise. High-locality landslides can be destructive owing to the large momentum and entrainment potential of the moving mass. Increasing attention has been given to these events since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Indeed, slope ridges are particularly susceptible of topographic amplification of the seismic shaking, resulting in mechanical weakening that predisposes them to enhanced weathering and rain-triggered failures years or decades after the mainshock. Risk reduction in such cases must begin with a systematic surveying of the ridges to identify criticalities. Then, quantitative (numerical) approaches must be used to evaluate volumes and describe the movement. Risk assessments can then be produced, and mitigations suggested. Here, we describe the Tonghua landslide in Li County, which is currently in a creeping stage but threatens critical infrastructures and dwellings. We monitored the site for 3 years and identified additional potentially unstable areas before performing physically based modeling and hazard zonation. Our results could be useful in decision-making for risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide disasters are associated with severe losses on the Loess Plateau of China. Although early warning systems and susceptibility mapping have mitigated this issue to some extent, most methods are qualitative or semi-quantitative in the site-specific range. In this paper, a quantitative spatial distribution model is presented for site-specific loess landslide hazard assessment. Coupled with multi-temporal remote sensing images and high-precision UAV cloud point data, a total of 98 loess landslides that have occurred since 2004 on the Heifangtai terrace were collected to establish a landslide volume-date and retreating distance database. Eleven loess landslides are selected to construct a numerical model for parameter back analysis, and the accuracy of the simulation results is quantitatively evaluated by the centroid distance and overlapping area. Different volumes and receding distance rates of landslides are fitted to determine the relationship between cracks and potential volume, and different volumes and parameters are combined to simulate the spatial distribution of potential loess landslides. The results of this study reveal that landslide volumes mainly range between 1 × 103 and 5 × 105 m3, and the historical occurrence probability reaches 0.551. The optimal parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method to obtain a uniform distribution parameter value probability model, and the results show that the error of the estimated length within a range of 0.05 from the optimal parameter does not exceed 15%. In the selected slope slide case, farmland near the toe of the slope primarily includes exposed hazards with probabilities greater than 0.7. This work provides a useful reference for local disaster reduction and a theoretical methodology for hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A consequent slope, comprising weak planes in the same dip direction along the slope face, is the most dangerous type of rock slope. Herein, a consequent landslide that occurred on May 5, 2018, in Mabian County, Southwest China, was investigated. This landslide occurred in a region with a complex geological background and strong geological activity and is considered a typical consequent landslide. Field investigations and aerial photographic interpretations revealed that the rock mass slipped along the contact surface of the strongly and moderately weathered rock mass, triggered by continuous rainfall. A depth-integrated continuum method was used to study the dynamic process of the landslide. The applicability of the depth-integrated method was verified by comparing the moving boundary of the landslide extracted from a video with the simulation results. The results show that the velocity of the landslide first increased and then decreased from the top to the bottom of the landslide and reached a maximum of 21 m/s in the middle of the landslide. Based on this method, we predicted the potential danger zones and velocity distribution of unstable masses next to the Mabian landslide. On comparing the calculated results of a depth-integrated continuum method with the Scheidegger method, in the case of the Mabian landslide, a reduction factor λ was added to the Scheidegger formula to achieve a modified formula that determines the velocity of such consequent landslides relatively accurately. This work could provide reference for the study of landslide velocity and disaster prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood—hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-locality landslides primarily occur in the upper zone of the failed slope, in which the slip surface is considerably higher than the foot of the slope. This paper discusses a high-locality landslide that occurred on August 8, 2017, on the left bank of Zagunao River in Tonghua Town, southwest China. The landslide, called the Tonghua landslide, originated on a 716-m-high hillslope, which was formed by preexisting glacial deposits. The main body of the landslide is currently suspended on hillslope, with a relative relief of 353 m and is undergoing progressive failure. The town of Tonghua is located downslope of this landslide, and hence, the landslide could cause severe damage, including casualties and the destruction of infrastructure. Very few mitigation measures have been implemented to reduce the potentially devastating consequences due to the high locality and continuous movement of the landslide. We conducted comprehensive studies including field investigations, aerial photographic interpretations, pluviometric regime analysis, and superficial displacement monitoring to understand the failure mechanism and evolutionary process of this ongoing landslide. Considering that a Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou, approximately 220 km northeast of Tonghua Town, on the same day as the landslide, and that sporadic but persistent rainfall occurred before slope failure, we believe that both the rainfall and the earthquake were potential triggers for this landslide. However, further studies are necessary to better understand the characteristics and to develop hazard mitigation strategies for this type of landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this paper is on two large sequential landslides which formed a dam and the resulting lake that occurred along the Jinsha River on October 11 and November 3, 2018. About 24 and 9 × 106 m3 of material failed and rushed into the river, respectively. Both landslides totally blocked the river and induced hazard chains. Four multi-temporal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based high-resolution images and digital elevation models (DEMs) before and after the landslides were obtained and merged. The initial deformation of the two landslides can be clearly captured by optical remote-sensing images and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis. The depth-integrated continuum method was adopted to analyze the dynamic process of both landslides, using the same basal friction angle and cohesion. The computational results matched well with field measurements and observations. It is shown that the evaluation of potentially landslide-prone areas by the depth-integrated continuum method is feasible and is able to provide significant information before a possible event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ridge-top rockslides frequently cause huge property losses and casualties due to the difficulties involved in detecting their precursors by means of manual surveys. Their early identification and the surrounding area's evaluation in terms of potential danger are essential for preventing disasters. The recent large rockslide which occurred at Su Village, which is in possession of data related to pre-failure images, real-time video, and post-failure boreholes, is helpful for providing new insights into the processes associated with these events. Due to a strong sustained rainfall, a large volume of granite blocks rapidly descended from the upper part of the hillside, causing 27 deaths and destroying more than 20 houses. It is found that the early identification of the hazard associated with such rockfalls can be made by the analysis of remote sensing images and Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) analysis of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The depth-integrated continuum method, including taking the entrainment effect into account, was adopted to analyze the dynamic processes and to identify the areas at risk. The computational results show that the evaluated runout distance and extent match well with the field investigation results. The parameter sensitivity surrounding cohesion, coefficients of lateral earth pressure, and volume amplification were analyzed. It is demonstrated that the cohesion plays a significant role in the dynamic processes and the deposited area. However, the effects from the earth pressure coefficient and volume bulking are comparatively weaker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rock avalanches represent a serious risk for human lives, properties, and infrastructures. On June 24, 2017, a catastrophic landslide destroyed the village of Xinmo (Maoxian County, Sichuan, China) causing a large number of fatalities. Adjacent to the landslide source area, further potentially unstable masses were identified. Among them, a 4.5-million m3 body, displaced during the landslide event by about 40 m, raised serious concerns. Field monitoring and a reliable secondary risk assessment are fundamental to protect the infrastructure and the population still living in the valley. In this framework, the use of distinct element methods and continuum model methods to simulate the avalanche process was discussed. Various models (PFC, MatDEM, MassMov2D, Massflow) were used with the aim of reproducing the Xinmo landslide and, as predictive tools, simulating the kinematics and runout of the potentially unstable mass, which could cause a new catastrophic event. The models were all able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the landslide kinematics and the morphology of the deposit, but with computational times differing by several orders of magnitude. More variability of the results was obtained from the simulations of the potential secondary failure. However, all models agreed that the new landslide could invest several still-inhabited buildings and block the course of the river again. Comparison and discussion of the performances and usability of the models could prove useful towards the enforcement of physically based (and multi-model) risk assessments and mitigation countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since lots of underground and slope excavation works were conducted during the urbanization process, an increasing number of sites in ravines around a city have been used to stockpile a large amount of excavated soils. This brings a huge challenge for researchers and managers in the risk evaluation and mitigation of potential dangers of these man-made construction waste landfills. This paper describes a recently large landslide of the construction waste landfill, which occurred at a site of Guangming new district in Shenzhen, China, on December 20, 2015. This catastrophic landslide caused the death of 69 persons and 8 persons are still missing. In this paper, this landslide was numerically simulated and analyzed. In spite of neither high-intensity rainfall nor antecedent rainfall, a slope of this landfill with a relative height of 111 m sided and caused about 2.34 million cubic meters of the soils to travel over a gentle terrain more than 1.2 km. This means that the landslide mobility index (H/L = 0.092) is much lower than a general designed value and the values in most other cases. A depth-integrated continuum method and a MacCormack-TVD finite difference algorithm are adopted, in this paper, to numerically simulate the dynamic process of this large landslide. It is found that a Coulomb friction model with consideration of the pore water pressure effects can well reproduce the main characteristics of the dynamic process of this landslide. Sensitivity analysis has demonstrated that the high pore water pressure in the soils plays a significant role in its mobility and is a key factor to the severity of this landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On June 17, 2020, a large debris flow occurred in the Meilong catchment following a short-duration, high-intensity rainstorm. The debris flow was initiated by two shallow landsides upstream of the catchment and had a volume of approximately 7.7 × 105 m3. It blocked the river and then induced flooding, causing significant losses to the local residents. In this study, through a combination of field observation, image interpretation, and laboratory experiments, the initiation mechanism, erosion depth along the main channel, and deposition area of this debris flow were comprehensively analyzed. A sequentially integrated numerical model considering the rainfall interception by vegetation, infiltration, and runoff process was developed. Considering the spatial variations in the climatic, hydrological, and geotechnical parameters, the entire process of debris flow initiation, motion, entrainment, and deposition was simulated. The computational outcomes matched well with the field observation results. A combination of the proposed integrated model and spatially varying parameters can be used to effectively describe the debris flow characteristics in the initiation and propagation stages and provide significant insights into the physical processes involved in such hazards. • The Meilong debris flow was initiated by two shallow landsides upstream. • An integrated numerical model with spatial variations of parameter is developed. • The computational outcomes of debris flow match well with the field observation. • A well-monitored groundwater data should be available to predict shallow landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ill-considered urban planning around Niwan gully may multiply the human and economic losses caused by debris flows. • A depth-integrated model was adopted to determine the hazard zones of debris flows with different recurrence intervals. • The debris flow inundation and evolutionary trajectory are shown to be reasonably comparable with historical debris flows. • This study established a relatively complete system to implement hazard and risk assessment in the study area. The highly geologically active, structurally complex Bailongjiang river basin, Longnan City, Gansu Province hosts many debris-flow gullies. The recent Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes have increased the amount of source material available in these debris flow gullies, and the disturbed nature of the slopes makes them prone to failure under high rainfall, increasing the risk of large-scale debris flows. Moreover, poor urban planning in the region may multiply the human and economic losses caused by debris flows. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the potential hazard zones associated with such debris flows and to implement debris flow hazard and risk assessment. In this paper, Niwan gully is chosen as the study object, as it is characterized by repeated debris flow outbreaks and an ill-considered urban planning at the outlet of the gully. A depth-integrated continuum method is adopted to determine the potential hazard zones of debris flows with different recurrence intervals. The debris flow inundation and evolutionary trajectory are shown to be reasonably comparable with historical debris flows. A two-factor model that couples maximum flow depth with momentum is used to better classify the hazard zones. This study also provides a complete and efficient means to determine the values of debris flow parameters and to implement a hazard and risk assessment based on the solid material reserve method and a probabilistic method. This proposed approach efficiently generated a debris flow risk distribution map that can be used for effective disaster prevention in the Bailongjiang River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic debris flows are common after large earthquakes and pose a significant risk for recovering communities. The depositional volume of these large debris flows is often much greater than the initiation volume, suggesting that bulking of the flow plays an important role in determining their volume, speed, and runout distance. Observations from recent earthquakes have driven progress in understanding the relationship between triggering rainfall events and the timing of post-earthquake debris flows. However, we lack an adequate mechanism for quantifying bulking and applying it within a hazard context. Here we apply a 2D dynamic debris flow model (Massflow) that incorporates a process-based expression of basal entrainment to understand how debris flow bulking may occur within post-earthquake catchments and develop hazard maps. Focussing on catchments in the epicentral area of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, we first parameterised the model based on a large debris flow that occurred within the Hongchun catchment, before applying the calibrated model to adjoining catchments. A model sensitivity analysis identified three main controls on debris flow bulking; the saturation level of entrainable material along the flow pathway, and the size and position of initial mass failures. The model demonstrates that the difference between small and very large debris flows occur across a narrow range of pore-water ratios (λ). Below λ = 0.65 flows falter at the base of hillslopes and come to rest in the valley bottom, above λ = 0.70 they build sufficient mass and momentum to sustain channelised flow and transport large volumes of material beyond the valley confines. Finally, we applied the model across different catchments to develop hazard maps that demonstrate the utility of Massflow in post-earthquake planning within the Wenchuan epicentral region. • Focussing on the Wenchuan region in China, we apply a 2D dynamic debris flow model (Massflow) • We use Massflow's process-based expression of basal entrainment to examine debris flow bulking • We find a narrow range of pore-water ratios (λ) mark the difference between small and large debris flows • Finally, we applied the model across different catchments to develop hazard maps [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]