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An accurate analysis of the relationship between humans and the land in oasis areas is essential for the formulation of policies for differentiated oasis urban development and resource management measures. Therefore, researchers have conducted numerous studies based on the linear relationship between "people and land" in oasis areas. To address this gap, this paper takes the Wuwei oasis as an example and re-examines the impact of human activities on the sustainability of natural capital from a new research perspective (nonlinear perspective). The study selected four variables, namely planted forests, scientific R&D investment, urbanization, and population density, as the main human activities affecting the Wuwei oasis area. The NARDL model, the nonlinear Granger causality test, is employed to investigate the interactions between the variables and the oasis natural capital in both the short and long term. The results indicate the following: (1) During the study period, the consumption of natural capital in the Wuwei oasis has been increasing annually and has long exceeded the local ecological carrying capacity. (2) In the short term, planting forests is the most beneficial human activity. The most beneficial human activity is the planting of trees, while in the long term, scientific R&D investment has the most positive effect on enhancing the oasis' resource reserves. (3) Urbanization, population density, and planted forest land all have a direct effect on the sustainable development of natural resources in the oasis. The findings of the study indicate that the application of scientific and technological innovation to promote the sustainable development of resources and the environment is a more reliable approach for oasis cities with a high degree of industrialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forestry's high-quality development is crucial for China's sustainable ecological, economic, and social progress. To elevate the efficiency of carbon sequestration in forestry, continuously improve the increment of carbon sinks, and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality, it is crucial to accurately assess the level of carbon sequestration efficiency in China's forestry and explore its long-term evolution trend. In this paper, a super-efficiency SBM model, which combines the SBM model with the super-efficiency method and considers the relaxation variables, was selected to evaluate the forestry carbon sequestration efficiency of 31 provinces in China; likewise, the temporal development features of the efficacy of Chinese forests in sequestering carbon were examined using the nuclear density estimation method. Secondly, the study constructed traditional and spatial Markov probability transfer matrices to further explore the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon sequestration efficiency within Chinese forestry. Finally, combined with the Markov chain infinite distribution matrix, the future trajectory of carbon sequestration efficiency in China's forestry was scientifically forecasted. The findings indicate that: (1) The average carbon sequestration efficiency of forestry in China showed a stable increase with fluctuations and reached the optimal state in 2018. The carbon sequestration efficiency level of various forest regions was always portrayed as southwest forest region > southern forest region > northeast forest region > northern forest region. From 2003 to 2018, there were significant differences in forestry carbon sequestration efficiency among provinces. The distribution of forestry carbon sequestration efficiency exhibited a "three-pillar" distribution pattern with Xizang, Zhejiang, and Heilongjiang as the core, and the marginal regions continuously promoted the carbon sequestration efficiency to the inland. (2) The type of transfer of forestry carbon sequestration efficiency in China is stable, and it is difficult to achieve cross-stage transfer in the short term. Moreover, the forestry carbon sequestration efficiency of each province tended to converge to a high (low) level over time, showing a "bimodal distribution" of low efficiency and high efficiency, indicating the existence of the obvious "club convergence phenomenon". (3) Forecasting from a long-term evolution trend perspective, the outlook for the future evolution of forestry carbon sequestration efficiency in China is optimistic, and the overall trend was concentrated in the high-value area. Therefore, future forestry development in China should contemplate both internal structure optimization and coordinated regional development. Attention should be placed on forestry carbon sequestration's role while considering the distinctive endowments of each region and developing reasonable, differentiated, and collaborative forestry management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the total carbon emission data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper used non-parametric kernel density estimation and traditional and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix methods to explore the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in China and then used a super-SBM model to calculate the carbon emission reduction potential of each province. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in China showed an upward trend of fluctuation, from 1.35 Gt to 4.90 Gt year by year, with an annual growth rate of 13.10%. (2) The core density curve showed a double peak form of "main peak + right peak," indicating that a polarization phenomenon occurred in the region. (3) The overall trend of carbon dioxide emissions shifting to superheavy carbon emissions was significant, and the probability of transition was as high as 74.69%, indicating that it was challenging to achieve leapfrog transition in the short term. (4) Based on the principle of fairness and efficiency of provincial carbon emission reduction, mainland China's 30 provincial administrative regions can be divided into four types. Finally, the carbon emission reduction path is designed for each province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of decline in ecosystem services has been exacerbated by inefficient and inequitable natural resource use and management. This study analyzes the natural capital stock and outflow in the Arid and Semi-Arid Northern Region of China (ASRNC) from 2000 to 2020. The Gini coefficient and coefficient of variation are used in the equity assessment of natural capital consumption. Over-appropriation of natural capital is a prerequisite for the inequitable distribution of natural resources, and all variables were accounted for through a geographic probe. Since most of the variables in this study have a nonlinear relationship, an in-depth analysis was conducted using NARDL. The results show that (1) natural capital flow occupancy generally shows an upward and downward trend and peaks in 2015. Natural capital stock occupancy was on a linear upward trend over the study period, rising from 14.580hm2/cap to 18.272hm2/cap. Depletion of natural capital is increasing and construction land has become the land type that leads to deep footprint changes (2) A city's consumption of natural capital matches its ecological carrying capacity to contribute to economic growth. However, the Gini coefficient for the depth of the ecological footprint from 2000 to 2020 is on a fluctuating upward trend. It reached its maximum in 2020 (1.457), indicating that the inequitable use of natural capital stock is increasing. (3) In the long run, population density and urbanization rate have different adverse effects on utilizing natural capital stock. In addition, the equity of planted forest area on natural capital use is heterogeneous in the long and short term. There is a negative effect of planted forest area on natural capital stock under long-term development. The study helps to judge the equity of regional consumption of natural capital and provides a scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economic systems and ecosystems. • The inequities in natural capital consumption are accounted for in a condition allowing nonlinear development. • Longitudinally, a chain of three aspects, natural capital accounting - equity measurement - imbalance tracing, is dissected. • In the long term, planted forests can exacerbate regional water shortages and lead to an imbalance in the use of natural capital. • Constructing an equity assessment framework for natural capital depletion can help guide the sustainable development of natural resources in arid and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The achievement of regional sustainable development is at the core of PLES. • The quantitative identification of land use functions forms the foundation of territory spatial planning and management. • The COAL model provides a reference for determining future PLES development. Analysis of the dynamics of regional production-life-ecological space (PLES) can help to mitigate conflicts between economic development and the natural environment and can also promote sustainable and healthy regional development. However, the delineation and optimal integration of PLES at large scales, and predictions about its future, still lack sufficient scientific basis and reliable quantitative analysis. To fill this gap, this paper therefore chooses the city cluster as a research scale and the Lanzhou-Xining City Cluster (LXCC), an area typical of the "human-nature" conflict in northern China, as a case study. A collaborative optimal allocation of land-use (COAL) model was established to explore the future development of PLES in city clusters. In COAL, a morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) and a minimum cumulative resistance model are used to determine the spatial functional areas of the country in 2020. Then, combined with the future land use simulation model, the PLES of LXCC is predicted in a multi-scenario perspective and differential control strategies are implemented for different land use functions. The results show that: (1) The identification and prioritization of source sites with important functions were the basis for enhancing the multiple functions of the land in the region. The ecological "source" of expansion accounts for 42% of the total area of LXCC, mainly in the mountains, forests, and ecological reserves, while the living "source" of expansion accounts for 58% of the total area of the city, mostly scattered on flat terrain. Based on this, five functional zones have been defined. The ecological protection zone was the largest, mainly in the western part of LXCC, and the agricultural buffer zone was the smallest. (2) The integration of different functional areas into the optimal allocation of land use is the premise of PLES delineation under the COAL framework. After a comparative analysis of multiple scenarios, the result of land use optimization under coordinated the city cluster scenario increased the area of productive land to 177,780.68 km2 and the area of living land to 13,947.33 km2. Based on this, the proportion of LXCC ecological, production, and living space were 77.20%, 18.23%, and 4.57% respectively. The optimized results have been proven to serve to meet the future spatial needs for food security and ecological conservation. The results of this study demonstrate that the COAL framework can help the government to determine the future development of PLES and promote balanced regional development in city clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A UGB scheme is proposed in which the ecological constraints are incorporated into a CA-Markov model. • Quantifies ecological resources and urban development in a complex environment. • The model and planning method can be applied to other ecologically fragile cities. Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) are seen as an effective tool to control urban sprawl and promote sustainable urban development. Existing methodologies related to urban boundary delineation focus mainly on increasing land intensification and compact urban development. However, it is not sufficient to focus on optimal urban development, especially in China. The delineation of UGBs should not only take into account the heterogeneity of regional natural resources but also further reconcile urban–ecological conflict. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework for delineating UGBs in an ecologically sustainable manner. This study first uses the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and ecological sensitivity as a basis for ecological constraints (EC). Both the background state of the regional ecology and ecological stress from human activities are considered to be constraints on urban sprawl. These ecological constraints are then combined with a CA-Markov model to simulate future urban development. The framework is applied to the Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture, an ecologically fragile region in China, where UGB delineation can be used not only to reconcile ecological and land-use planning conflict but also to ensure sustainable resource development in individual zoning districts. The results suggest that a plan that only considers urban development may have a negative impact on the conservation of natural resources and ecological sustainability. The delineation of UGBs based on the proposed EC-CA-Markov model will thus help guide sustainable urban development. The conceptual and methodological advances in this study are applicable to other ecologically fragile cities and can help in the delineation of UGBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy and power industry is an important field for CO 2 emission reduction. The CO 2 emitted by thermal power enterprises is a major cause of global climate change, and also a key challenge for China to achieve the goals of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality." Therefore, it is essential to scientifically and accurately predict the CO 2 emissions of key thermal power enterprises in the region. This will guide carbon reduction strategies and policy recommendations for leaders, and also provide a valuable reference for similar regions globally. This study utilizes the factor analysis method to extract the common factors influencing CO 2 emissions based on the carbon verification data of 17 thermal power enterprises in Gansu Province. Additionally, the DISO (distance between indices of simulation and observation) index is employed to comprehensively evaluate three prediction models, namely multiple linear regression, support vector regression, and GA-BP neural network. Ultimately, this study provides a reasonable prediction of CO 2 emissions for the aforementioned enterprises in Gansu Province. The results show that the three common factors obtained by factor analysis, namely energy consumption and output factor, energy quality factor, and energy efficiency factor, can effectively predict the CO 2 emissions from thermal power enterprises. In the three prediction models, GA-BP neural network has the best overall performance with DISO value of 0.95, RMSE value of 11848.236, and MAE value of 7880.543. Over the period 2022-2030, CO 2 emissions from 17 thermal power enterprises in Gansu Province are predicted to increase. Under the low-carbon, scenario baseline, and high-carbon scenarios, the CO 2 emissions will reach 71.58 Mt, 79.25 Mt, and 87.97 Mt, respectively, by 2030., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the largest ecological barrier and one of the most vulnerable areas of the ecological environmental system. However, the increasing frequency of human activities in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has led to strong interference. Residential areas are the main places in which human activities are carried out and, as such, can effectively reflect the intensity of activities. Based on this, this research takes the Tibet Autonomous Region as the study area and analyzes the distribution characteristics of Tibetan residential areas using Zipf's law and various landscape indices, as well as discussing the influences of altitude, hydrology, ecological environment, and location on residential area distribution. The obtained results indicate the following: (1) The residential areas in Tibet basically conform to the rank-size principle. The residential areas in central and northwest Tibet are concentrated in size distribution, and the relatively large residential areas are prominent, while the residential areas in the eastern Hengduan mountain region are relatively balanced in size distribution. (2) The landscape index results demonstrate that the counties with an unbalanced distribution of residential areas are mainly concentrated in the northwest of Tibet, while the residential areas in the counties and regions where the administrative stations of each prefecture-level city (or region) are located tend to present a polarization phenomenon, with large patches. The area distribution of residential areas showed a "medium-high-low" pattern from southeast to northwest. The residential areas in eastern Tibet have a high degree of fragmentation and a low degree of aggregation, while the residential areas in northwest Tibet have a low degree of fragmentation and a relatively high degree of aggregation. (3) The residential areas in Tibet are most concentrated in the altitude range of 3000-5000 m above sea level and their water affinity and road-affinity are strong, with the distribution of residential areas within 500 m of roads and water networks accounting for more than one-quarter. The vegetation coverage in the residential areas is low, inconsistent with the surface vegetation coverage rate over the whole of Tibet.

The Ecological Functional Zone of the Upper Yellow River (EFZUYR) is a critical water-catching area in the Yellow River Basin, the ecological security of which affects the sound development of the ecosystem in the entire basin. Recently, significant land use changes have aggravated regional ecological risks and seriously affected the sustainable development of EFZUYR. In this context, this paper provides an in-depth study of the ecological risks caused by land use landscape changes. With the help of land use data and dynamic degree analysis, the land use transfer matrix, and the landscape pattern index, this paper quantifies the distribution trends of land use landscape patterns in EFZUYR from 1990 to 2018. In addition, this research explores the temporal and spatial dynamic distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks in this functional zone. The research results show the following: (1) The transfer of land use in EFZUYR from 1990 to 2018 mainly occurred among cultivated land, grassland, and woodland, with the transferred area accounting for 87.16% of the total changed area. (2) The fragmentation degree of built-up areas is 0.1097, 0.1053, 0.0811 and 0.0762 in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018, respectively, with a decreasing trend. The dominance degree of grassland has been maintained at the highest level for a long time, with all values above 0.59. The separation degree and the interference degree of built-up areas were the highest and the values of the four periods were above 1.2 and 0.44, respectively. The loss degree of water was the highest, with a value above 0.67, while the value of other land use was mostly below 0.4. (3) The landscape ecological risk of EFZUYR presented a fluctuating rising, falling, and then rising trend. The spatial distribution characteristic of EFZUYR presented "high in the north and south, low in the middle.", which has been maintained for a long time. The proportion of low-risk areas is as high as 70%, and the overall ecological risk of the region was low. However, the ecological risk of some areas, such as Linxia City and Magu County, increased. These findings can provide theoretical support for land use planning and achieving sustainable development of EFZUYR.