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Examining the roles of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) in energy import (EI) is vital to ensuring energy security in China. The exploration utilises the TVP-SV-VAR methodology to seize the time-varying connection among EPU, GPR and EI. In light of the quantitative discussion, we discover that EPU exerts an adverse effect on EI, emphasising that the uncertainties in economic policies would reduce energy imports in China, which conforms to the theoretical hypothesis. GPR had a favourable impact on EI before COVID-19, primarily due to the changes in energy prices and diversification of imports, which turned negative after this epidemic because of economic recovery and more severe geopolitical events, which is not perfectly consistent with the qualitative analysis. Besides, the exploration replaces EI with oil import (OI) and ascertains the robustness of the reported conclusion. By comparing, the influences from EPU and GPR on coal import (CI) and natural gas import (NGI) are entirely different from OI primarily due to the substitution effect and geopolitical property. In the increasingly challenging economic and political environment context, the exploration will offer significant lessons for China to ensure the security of energy imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is a rapidly rising sector that contributes significantly to economies. In this paper, we apply a bootstrap full-sample causality test, parameter stability test, and quantile-on-quantile approach test so as to examine the relationship between consumer confidence index (CCI) and outward tourism expenditure (OTE) for the period between 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of the findings reflect that CCI tends to exert a positive impact on the OTE in most of the quantiles. This essentially implies that consumer confidence in China can act as a compound for outbound tourism expenditure in nature. Therefore, it can be affirmed that the OTE tends not to have an effect on the CCI, thus extending the implication that an alteration in the private outbound tourism spending in most likely to be insufficient for the modification of the factor of consumer confidence. To ensure the robustness of the results, we have employed the quantile-based granger causality to investigate the causal relationship in quantile between CCI on the OTE. The results of this study tend to educate the foreign tourism policymakers, while at the same time making forecasts of the tourism arrivals from China. Policymakers can then plan their tourism strategies, ideally including the CCI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes new perspective on the nexus between transportation and urbanization in China to test the search-matching theory. We find that the linkage between transportation and urbanization has both frequency and time-varying features. We find that transportation improves urbanization in the short term, while urbanization plays the importation role in transportation during the period 1969–1996. This result obviously supports search-matching theory that in the subsample periods, the transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization in the short term but not in the long term. In the long term, urbanization will promote the development of transportation, while short-term traffic infrastructure investment can effectively improve the transfer of population to urban regions. It would be beneficial for the government to formulate the scientific traffic planning policy and adjust the transport structure to improve urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causal link between green credit (GC) and particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is discussed this paper for the case of China using the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test. The fresh empirical results show that GC had both positive and negative influences on PM2.5 in two separate sub-sample periods. In turn, PM2.5 positively and consistently affected GC in two sub-sample periods. In addition, time periods without causalities were also found in the sample. These inconsistent conclusions do not provide strong support for the hypothesis that GC and PM2.5 would affect each other throughout the whole sampling period. Government intervention, public environmental awareness, the domestic economic situation, and other factors were fully considered in interpreting the deviations in certain periods. Thus, the major contribution of this study is that the linear assumption of causality was relaxed, which is more in line with China's realities. Some policies are suggested to further strengthen the construction of the GC framework and establish a multiparticipant GC system. Moreover, PM2.5 is an important reference and can be incorporated into enterprises' green financing strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic received widespread media attention, and global financial markets reacted strongly to the pandemic shocks. It is, therefore, worthwhile to detect the influence of media hype about COVID-19 and the pandemic index on stock market price returns. Utilising a newly developed non-linear ARDL model, our empirical outcomes show that the direct effect of the COVID-19 pandemic index on sectoral stock market returns is generally weak and significant only in the Energy, Financials, and Health Care sectors. In contrast to the direct effect of the COVID-19, we find that the media hype index pronouncedly affects sectoral stock market returns, with a significant negative effect in most sectors and with asymmetry. The dynamic asymmetric causality test has been applied for robustness check, where there is time-varying asymmetric causality from media hype to sectoral stock markets. These findings help investors with different investment horizons in emerging markets understand sector-level stock price dynamics and formulate investment strategies during the pandemic. Furthermore, market regulators should consider asymmetric effects over time when formulating strategies and making policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study performs the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests, in order to investigate the time-varying causal relationship between the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the outbound tourism expenditure (OTM) in China. For this purpose, it introduces the variable of consumer confidence as a subjective psychological perception variable into the gravity model and explores its impact on the outbound travel. The results reveal that CCI tends to exert positive impacts on the OTM in most subsamples. That is to say that the Chinese consumer confidence can be considered as a catalyst for the OTM. However, the impact tends to be negative during times such as the global financial crisis, caused by the appreciation in the renminbi. In turn, OTM does not affect CCI. This suggests that the only change of private expenditure on outbound tourism cannot alter consumer confidence regarding the current economic and income situation. These findings compel the foreign tourism authorities to take CCI into account, especially when predicating the tourism arrivals from China, and hence plan their tourism strategy accordingly. Also, Chinese travel agencies should ideally take notice of the CCI in order to plan their international tour packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", it is crucial for China to effectively control environmental pollution in low-carbon action (LCA). Based on the evidence from 283 cities in China from 2007 to 2019, the difference-in-differences (DID) method is applied to explore the impact of LCA on pollutant emissions represented by the pilot of low-carbon city construction (LCCC) in China. The main findings are as follows. First of all, the LCCC suppresses pollution emissions, and the basic conclusions are still stable after endogenous treatment and robustness testing. Secondly, the mechanism analysis reveals that the main path of LCCC affecting pollution reduction comes from the progress of green technology and the upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis shows that the pollution reduction effect of the LCCC is better in the eastern region and cities with higher level of green economy development. Based on the policy standpoint of environmental protection, the LCCC has opened up a reasonable exploration path for China and other countries in the world to carry out effective pollution reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the causal relationship about CO2 emissions, traffic density and urbanization development in China's provinces by the quantile causality test The method can capture the structural breaks under different quantiles from the nonlinear perspective. The robust results don't find the causality relationship between traffic density and CO2 emissions. Urbanization will increase CO2 emission at the high quantile level while the impact of CO2 emissions on urbanization presents a symmetric relationship. The promoting effect of transportation on urbanization only occurs at the beginning of urbanization. It shows the environmental pollution is a key factor to the whole process of urbanization. With the advancement of urbanization, the increase of traffic line density has no significant impact on the urbanization process. The results can provide references for the government in the layout of local traffic lines and the improvement of urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High housing prices and the urban–rural income gap are two important social problems that China is facing currently. Due to the imbalance of regional economic development, the relationship between housing prices and urban–rural income gap in regions may also be different. This study examines this relationship across regions in China by employing the bootstrap panel Granger causality method. We find that regional differences obviously exist between the housing prices and the urban–rural income gap. Housing prices have widened the urban–rural income gap in the eastern region, have narrowed it in the northeastern region, and have no significant impacts in the central and western regions. On the other hand, the urban–rural income gap is an important driver of the increasing housing prices in the eastern region, has suppressed them in the central and northeastern regions, and has no significant influence in the western region. The government may curb the excessive growth in housing prices to avoid widening the urban–rural income gap in the eastern region. For the northeastern region, boosting the housing market may help to narrow the income gap. For the central and western regions, policies should be committed to raising the resident income to reduce the income gap. These can provide references for policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper clarifies the association between the Sino-U.S. bilateral relation (BR) and Bitcoin price (BCP) by applying the bootstrap full- and sub-sample Granger causality tests. It reveals that BR has positive and negative effects on BCP. The negative impact points out that Bitcoin is viewed as a tool to avoid uncertainties caused by the deterioration of BR, also proving that the strained relation between China and the U.S. can stimulate the Bitcoin market. However, this opinion is not held under a positive impact, the main explanation is that the burst of bubble weakens its ability to hedge risks. The above conclusion is not consistent with the theoretical model, underlining that the Bitcoin market is boosted by the deterioration of BR. Conversely, there is a negative influence from BCP to BR, meaning that the relationship between China and the U.S. can be reflected by the Bitcoin market. Under the complex and volatile international situation, investors can benefit from this investigation to compensate for the losses and keep their wealth. Also, it helps the related authorities to create a stable investment environment and promote friendly bilateral relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of crude oil price, this paper investigates the effects of new energy vehicles on air quality by applying a time-varying parameter–stochastic volatility–vector autoregression model. NEVs benefits from the continuous adjustment and improvement of subsidy standards by the Chinese government, and the share of new energy vehicles in the market has been continuously improved. The empirical results show that the increase in new energy vehicles can reduce PM2.5 emissions, which is also consistent with the energy and environment theoretical model, and replacing traditional energy with new energy is helpful for controlling environmental pollution. Oil price has a direct negative impact on PM2.5 concentration, and the influence of new energy vehicles on air quality is also regulated by changes in oil price. A high oil price leads to an increase in driving costs, and consumers are more inclined to purchase new energy vehicles, which achieves the purpose of improving air quality to a certain extent. To improve the air quality, the relevant departments should adjust the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles according to the change in oil price and appropriately increase gasoline or diesel consumption taxes to provide development space for the new energy vehicle market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies the slack-based measure-data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) method to measure energy efficiency and tests the spatial spill-over effects of fiscal decentralisation, industrial structure and energy efficiency using the spatial Durbin model. The results show that China's energy efficiency presents a clear geographical step distribution, and the Eastern and Western regions have higher energy efficiency than the Central region. Fiscal decentralisation has a positive effect on the energy efficiency of the Eastern and Central regions by upgrading the industrial structure. In addition, fiscal decentralisation has significant, positive externalities on the surrounding areas, promoting environmental protection and energy conservation in all regions of China. The results are in line with the tenets of environmental federalism (Oates & Schwab): through the allocation and transfer of industrial factors, fiscal decentralisation affects energy governance. Therefore, local governments should formulate policies and targets according to their regions' different economic development levels, and the Central and Western areas, which have greater space for improvement and low energy efficiency, should receive attention to balance regional differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to a lack of consensus on whether the competition among the banks brings stability, or vulnerability in the financial system, this research is aimed towards investigating the Chinese banking industry. For this purpose, we have used the Granger and sub-sample time varying rolling window, in order to estimate the dynamic causality of the competition in the banking sector, and the systematic risk factors that follow, in China. The purpose of exploring the two-way causality is to make the banking system more stable, and also to provide new and first-hand evidence that can aid in reducing the occurrence of systematic risks. The results show that the competition in the banking sector has a negative impact on the systematic risk. This means that the increased competition in the banking sector will eventually lead to a reduction in the systematic risk. The results of the study are supported by the competition-stability hypothesis. Also, following the results, the policy direction we propose is that the banks may aim at reducing their systematic risks. They may achieve this by increasing their market share and accelerating transformation, in order to improve their competitiveness, which will help the banking system in China to achieve a sustainable form of stability. Moreover, our findings will also be helpful for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), which has been, over the years, in the process of developing an assessment framework for bank mergers, while also trying to minimize the tradeoff between competition and financial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the factor of causality between the variables of economic growth and carbon emissions in China, by conducting full, and sub-sample Granger causality tests for the period of 1965 to 2019. The full-sample Granger causality test is not considered to be authentic, and is rather unstable, as indicated by the parameter stability tests. Therefore, we consider the time variation using a causality test, and the results indicate that the causality exists from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions. This development essentially suggests that economic growth is critical for China's environment. It also implies that carbon emissions are mainly determined by the increase in economic growth, at some specific period in time. Thus, in this regard, the use of renewable energy sources should be encouraged by policymakers, in order to deal with rise in the energy demand, and promote industrial upgrading, so as to slow down the rate degradation that the environment have been experiencing. However, our empirical results indicate that CO2 emissions are not the Granger reason to GDP. In this case, the government can formulate more conservative reduction policies that pertain to carbon emissions, and will therefore, not impede the economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causality between reserve accumulation and money supply in China over the period of 2000:01–2016:11. The bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window causality tests are utilized. The full-sample test supports that reserve accumulations lead to significant endogenous money supply. However, the sub-sample test suggests that the endogenous money supply caused by reserve accumulations mostly existed before 2007 when China implemented a compulsory exchange settlement system. Structural changes also exist as a result of the impacts of excess money supply and reserve accumulations, which suggests specific backgrounds should be taken into account when investigating this issue. The rolling window causality test provides a more accurate result when considering structural changes, which proves reserve accumulations are more likely to cause endogenous money supply in a compulsory exchange settlement system. The significant difference before and after 2007 suggests that the ending of the compulsory exchange settlement system is helpful to improve the monetary policy independence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether there exists an optimal level of research and development (R&D) intensity, at which defense enterprises are able to maximize their market performance. The Panel Threshold Regression Model was applied to probe the link between R&D intensity and sales growth for defense listed enterprises, in China. The empirical results indicate that the Law of Gibrat does not hold and, unlimited input in R&D, does not guarantee positive paybacks. This may lead to the assumption that there is an optimal R&D intensity level in Chinese defense enterprises. Due to the fact that the defense industry has broken entrance barriers and considering the introduction of social capital into R&D activities, managers and top management should set more specific guidelines and provisional benchmarks to ensure effective R&D resource allocation in order to achieve maximum performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article employs the bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window estimation to explore the time-varying property between bilateral political relations and foreign direct investment based on Sino-Japanese relations. The result identifies a one-way causal nexus running from bilateral political relations to foreign direct investment. Bilateral political relations have both positive and negative influences on foreign direct investment inflows in different sub-stages, but merely negative impacts on outflows. However, the reverse causality has not been proven, which is inconsistent with the model of Polachek et al. that the increased foreign direct investment is conducive to improving bilateral political relations. We also divide the BPR into two dimensions: leader's visits and diplomatic conflicts to examine the role of specific political actions. Leader's visits can significantly increase FDI inflows and outflows, but diplomatic conflicts have less impact on FDI. China and Japan should increase dialogue to ensure bilateral relations' stability and seek common ground in economic interests, ultimately providing investors with a favorable political environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reviews the threshold effect of house prices (HPs) on marriage (MR) in China by utilizing a panel threshold regression. The findings indicate that HPs have a positive impact on MR when the price is below the threshold value. Homeownership is an extremely important factor in MR in China, and MR without housing is considered incomplete. However, HPs have a negative effect on MR when the price is higher than the threshold value. Unemployment and female education have a negative effect on MR, while GDP per capita has a positive effect. These results are supported by the duration model, which shows that as HPs increase, the rate of MR decreases. The study makes a contribution on the asymmetric impact of high HPs on MR in China in the two regimes. The paper offers insight into the economic outlook on HPs and MR driven by societal and institutional changes, such as privatization and state ownership of enterprises, that have changed marriage behavior. Increasing HPs slow MR and may have a more serious impact on China than on other countries. The government should balance housing supply and demand by enhancing antimonopoly supervision in the private market. The government should establish policy measures to meet housing demand and create incentives to wed, which can relieve competition in marriage markets. Diversified investment, in turn, can control HPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade using a time-varying (bootstrap) Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The result indicates that Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade may interact in various ways. Bilateral trade has both positive and negative effects on political conflict in several sub-phases, and in turn, political conflict has the same impacts on bilateral trade. In general, the relationship between Sino-U.S. political conflict and bilateral trade is not always consistent with the model of Polachek, which states bilateral trade has significantly reduced political conflict. In the face of a severe economic situation, China and the U.S. government should strengthen trade cooperation and seek common ground of economic interests in order to expand the improvement of political relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether broader money supply (M2) and interest rate as two monetary policy tools may have differently affected housing prices in China. Empirical results show that there is a co-movement between housing prices and M2 in the short run and it becomes more pronounced after 2006 in the medium run. In addition, generally M2 positively affects housing prices. This supports the asset price channel which indicates that an easing monetary policy offers ample liquidity and results in raising the housing prices. The excess liquidity after 2008 spread to housing market, resulting in too much money chasing relatively few assets and triggering a surge in housing prices. On the other hand, we observe that co-movement between housing prices and interest rate is not very evident in most time. Moreover, we find that interest rate has a positive effect on housing prices which is not consistent with the user cost approach and indicates that a contracting monetary policy is not effective in curbing housing market. Not completely liberalized interest rate system and the high return on housing investments reduce the impact of interest rate on housing prices. These findings indicate that money supply is more effective than interest rate as channel to control the housing prices in China. The results are helpful for the scientific formulation of monetary policy for reasonable regulation of the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate environmental problems and to achieve sustainability, China is striving to transition to low-carbon urban economies. Among several significant steps, the country has made remarkable success in controlling the emissions from transportation, buildings, and energy by shutting down or relocating several polluting industries. This study contributes to the issue of sustainable growth debate using time series data from China for the period 1998–2017 and empirically examines the effects of green investment and renewable energy consumption on production-based carbon emissions for China. The strength of this study is that it tested some new variables such as production-based carbon emissions and green investment. Using autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) cointegration technique, we found that production-based emission and its determinants move together in the long run. The study found that green investment and renewable energy consumption are both helpful in controlling production-based carbon emissions, while trade openness increases production-based carbon emissions. Hence, green investment and renewable energy consumption contribute to the achievement of sustainable growth. Moreover, based on a robustness check, human capital, financial development, and environment-specific technological innovation are found to be helpful in curbing production-based carbon emissions. Our study recommends financial technology (fin-tech), green investment, and public-private partnership investment in renewable energy to mitigate the effect of production-based carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China's air pollution has caused significant concern in the academia. China is the hub of business and financial activities, with the most populous cities. It is important to determine the convergence and asymmetric persistence of air quality index (AQI hereafter) in China to achieve sustainable development goals, especially the ones related to the environment. This paper uses the Fourier quantile unit root test to check for inter-regional convergence of monthly AQI for 74 cities across China from January 2013 to July 2019. For a comparative baseline analysis, five conventional univariate and quantile unit root tests are also conducted. The empirical outcomes show that the Fourier quantile unit test exhibits a significant advantage in detecting smooth breaks and evaluating the asymmetric behavior and mean-reverting properties of AQI. Moreover, the monthly AQI in 70 out of 74 C0hinese cities are stationary processes. These findings not only focus on the appropriate use of relevant modeling techniques of smooth breaks and asymmetries in the AQI series of the 74 Chinese cities but also provide crucial environmental sustainability and economic implications for AQI regulation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, a continuous wavelet method is employed to investigate the dynamic time–frequency varying linkage of hot money, money supply (M2) and housing prices in China. In most time hot money has insignificant effect on M2 which indicates that the effectiveness of sterilization. On the other hand, M2 has a significant influence on hot money especially in the long term. M2 affects housing prices significantly in the long term. However, the effect of hot money on housing prices is pronounced mainly in short and medium terms. Therefore, hot money inflows have not weakened the monetary control in recent years, and both M2 and hot money are important leading forces in the rising housing prices in China. These findings provide implications for the government to formulate monetary policy and regulate the housing market and capital flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the nexus between the defense spending growth rate and inflation to test whether defense spending is inflationary in China, particularly in times of peace. Using wavelet analysis, we find that the linkage between the defense spending growth rate and inflation changes over time and across frequencies. We provide evidence supporting negative leading effects of inflation on the defense spending growth rate in certain periods across various frequencies. The results illustrate that the relationship is stronger at the short- to medium-term horizon of less than eight years than it is in the long term. No positive leading effect of defense spending on inflation is demonstrated, showing that defense spending is not inflationary in China. The results indicate that inflation lowers the defense spending growth rate at short and medium scales, particularly in peace time. This study provides new insights into the nexus between defense spending and inflation and emphasizes that such a correlation has time and frequency features. Meanwhile, given that there is little evidence supporting the idea that defense spending is inflationary, a moderate increase in defense spending will not damage price stability in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new insights into the dynamic relationships between money supply growth and housing boom, through the application of wavelet analysis. Specifically, in the time domain, the results highlight the existence of positive co-movement and causality between money supply growth and housing returns, during different sub-periods. In the frequency domain, the co-movements occur especially over the short and medium term. Our results are basically in line with the general equilibrium model developed by Frankel (Am J Agric Econ 68:344–348, 1986) and Li (The theory and empirical research on housing price overshooting under the impact of money supply in China, 2012). After controlling for the simultaneous impact of inflation and interest rates, the correlations become considerably strong in the short term since the early 2000s, which proves for an increasingly close interaction between money supply growth and real estate market. The results provide further evidence of the value of steady money supply growth for the maintenance of healthy and effective operation of the real estate market. Moreover, appropriate signal released by monetary authorities is rapidly assimilated by the real estate market, which highlights that policy adjustments should focus on the short term horizons in order to improve policy pertinence and flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market-oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) fits the Chinese military market using the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) and the Panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function. We obtain evidence for structural shifts and non-linearity in the stock prices of the military industry in the Chinese stock market. Because sharp shifts and structural breaks are taken into account, the unit root hypothesis for most listed companies is rejected. Our result suggests that the Chinese military market is inefficient because of such factors as defense reforms, friction in the stock market, and irrational investors. We provide investment implications to enable future stock price movements to be predicted based on past behavior and enable trading strategies to be developed to earn abnormal returns. Meanwhile, Chinese defense enterprises should continue to implement industrial reforms, change their bureaucratic culture, and develop a market-oriented workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causal link between short-term capital flow and interest rate differential with the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality and sub-sample rolling-window methods. The empirical results indicate that there is a unidirectional link from interest rate differential to short-term capital flow. However, when considering structural breaks in the above series, the full-sample causality test cannot be relied on. Hence, the time-varying rolling-window method is employed to examine the dynamic causal nexus. Being influenced by the U.S. monetary, world economic situation, Chinese intervention policies and other factors, interest rate differential has influences on short-term capital flow in some periods, but the reverse effect does not exist. Therefore, it is important for authorities to focus on specific backgrounds (e.g., economic situation, monetary policies) and further utilise interest rate and capital control to alleviate negative effects from violent fluctuation of short-term capital flow on the Chinese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate whether the covered interest rate parity (C.I.P.) holds or not through examining the dynamic link between nominal interest rate differential (N.I.R.D.) and nominal exchange rate (N.E.R.) in China. With economic transitions and structural changes existing, we find that the C.I.P. condition using full-sample data does not always hold. Consequently, we apply a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationship, and the results show that N.I.R.D. has both positive and negative impacts on N.E.R. in several sub-periods, and in turn, N.E.R. has the same effects on N.I.R.D. for China. Exchange regime reform, currency-specific market risk and capital control are considered in explaining the deviations in some sub-sample periods. Therefore, empirical results have important implications for distinguishing factors that bring about the C.I.P. deviations and further offers policy suggestions for the Chinese monetary authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) holds by examining the dynamic link between nominal exchange rate (NER) and relative consumer price (RCP) in China. With economic transitions and structural changes existing, we discover that by using full sample data the PPP does not hold. Consequently, we apply the rolling window causality method in order to reconsider the dynamic causal link, and as a result we observe NER having both positive and negative impacts on RCP in some sub-periods. However, RCP has no effect on the NER, meaning that the PPP does not hold. Trade cost, restrictions and imperfect competition are considered in explaining the deviations in some sub-sample periods. Therefore, this empirical result has important implications for stakeholders to distinguish factors that bring about the PPP deviations and further offers policy suggestions for the Chinese monetary authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global shift to renewable energy is conducive to carbon reduction, but its impact on the economy is still uncertain. Unlike existing research focusing on the effect of domestic renewable energy (RE), this paper considers the global RE connection among countries and examines the impact of global RE development on economic growth (EG) using China as a sample. In addition, we apply a novel wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile method, which can estimate the local influence of the α-quantile of global RE on the β-quantile of the EG in different periods. The finding shows that the upper quantiles of RE promote EG , and this effect is greater at the upper quantiles of EG in the medium- and long-term. This is mainly because China plays a leading role in RE development and has an advantage in exporting RE -related products with the development of global RE. The finding proves the growth effect, indicating that RE is a blessing for China's EG. However, in the short term, a higher level of global RE development impedes China's EG due to high upfront costs of RE production, fierce competition from other countries, and insufficient energy supply when significant investment shifts from non-renewable energy to RE. The empirical results provide important policy implications to balance RE 's short-term inhibitory effect and long-term promoting effect on EG in the process of the global energy transition. • The global RE connection and the impact of global RE development on economic EG. • Applying wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile method can estimate the local influence of global RE on EG in different periods. • Upper quantiles of RE promote EG is greater at the upper quantiles of EG in the medium- and long-term. • The growth effect indicating that RE is a blessing for China's EG. • Balance RE's short-term inhibitory effect and long-term promoting effect on EG in the process of energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a perspective for the link between air quality and stock returns in China through quantile Granger causality test. Compared to previous studies, the study makes the following innovations. Given the Chinese government plays an important role in economic development, its industrial policies are regarded as a new indispensable supplement of analysis framework apart from investor mood. Next, due to different reflections from cross-industries for different AQ levels, the industry heterogeneity is further considered. Also, nine industries are chosen as a sample, including environmental protection, wind power equipment, steel, photovoltaic equipment, thermal power, tourism, coal, medical service, and medical equipment. Besides, the quantile Granger causality test is robust to misspecification errors when detecting the potential dependence structure between the variables of air quality and stock returns. The empirical results show that the causal link exists in all industries, except medical service. Meanwhile, this impact presents asymmetrical features that when air quality is unhealthy, it has an influence on stock returns of the remaining eight industries. It can be explained by increasing cortisol level, more stringent environmental protection, and industrial policies. These conclusions have essential implications for market participants due to the fact that air quality generates various influences on the stock market. That is why a sustainable environmental design, strict regulatory framework, and special monitoring activities should be highly regarded in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the reconsideration of price bubbles specific to the shipping freight market based on the method of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF). This approach offers the opportunity to recognize multiple bubbles and set their corresponding original and final dates. Empirical results reveal that four bubbles existed in the shipping freight market between October 1988 and February 2018 in which freight deviated from fundamental values. Strong demand (especially in China), the supply capacity, crude oil prices and U.S. dollar fluctuations are potential explanations for the first three bubbles. The global financial crisis that burst in 2008 is the major factor results in the last bubble. Hence, we must distinguish the potential reasons of bubbles in different periods and take measures such as promoting economic multipolarization, strengthening the bargaining power of China, building an effective information transfer system, employing financial derivatives and accelerating the consolidation of the shipping industry to alleviate the negative influences on global seaborne trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the causal relationship between financial development and the urban–rural income gap in China. Using a bootstrap Granger panel causality analysis, the result indicates that financial development influences urban–rural income gap mainly in Eastern China. The high level of financial development in this region enables rural areas to increase its income. Our results also confirm the existence of the financial Kuznets curve in Eastern China where urban–rural income gap would be first increased and afterwards decreased by financial development. The financial development itself is not dependent on urban–rural income gap as it largely depends on government policies and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and real estate investment from 1990 to 2014 for 29 provinces in China. We argue that the patterns of interaction between urbanization and investment in real estate vary across regions. The results show that urbanization does Granger‐cause investment in real estate, primarily in the central and northeastern regions of China, while urbanization does not Granger‐cause investment in real estate in the eastern and western regions, except for four provinces. Most regions do not have a Granger‐causality relationship from real estate investment to urbanization; the exceptions are Henan and Hei Longjiang provinces. Our results only support one theory on the relationship between urbanization and the real estate market for one‐third of the provinces. Thus, urbanization can improve real estate investment by increasing the demand for housing as a result of population agglomeration, but urbanization does not depend on real estate investment in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the causal relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, using the research methodology namely bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation. The results reveal that there is a significant bidirectional relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, pointing out the existence of both ‘demand-following’ and ‘supply-leading’ hypotheses. Furthermore, their relationship fits well the fact that China has experienced economic restructuring and structural changes in the past few decades. As financial development improves trade openness robustly, the Chinese policymakers should further increase financial reform to promote trade development. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between Chinese housing and stock markets. The authors discuss the three transmission mechanisms between the two markets: wealth effect, modern portfolio theory and credit-price effect. Moreover, the authors focus on the effects of inflation on the relationship between the two markets.Design/methodology/approach This paper uses wavelet analysis to test the housing and stock markets relationship both in the frequency domain and time domain.Findings The empirical results indicate that housing prices have a positive effect on stock prices, and these have the same effect on housing prices. Moreover, this positive effect means that stock prices have a wealth effect on housing prices and these have a credit-price effect on stock prices.Research limitations/implications These results provide information to financial institutions and individual investors in China to assist them in constructing investment portfolios within these two asset markets.Originality/value The authors first use wavelet analysis to analyze Chinese housing and stock markets and to provide information both on the frequency domain and time domain. Moreover, the authors take the inflation factor as a control variable in the causal relationship between the housing and stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese housing market (HM) and stock market (SM), using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and subsample rolling-window estimation test. The results show that stock price (SP) has both positive and negative impacts on housing price (HP) in several sub-periods, and HP has the same effects on SP. The substitution effect drives their adverse consequences. Meanwhile, the positive effect indicates that SP has a wealth effect on HP, and HP has a credit-price effect on SP. Results provide information to Chinese financial institutions and individual investors for constructing investment portfolios within these asset markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causal relationship between the housing prices (HP) and the international capital flows (ICF) in China. With structural changes existing, we find that long-run relationship using full-sample data is unstable, suggesting that traditional Granger causality test is not reliable. However, we further find an unstable short-run relationship betweenICFandHPwhen assessing the stability of the parameters and there are bidirectional causal relationships betweenICFandHPfor several sub-periods. Additionally, our findings indicate both positive and negative bidirectional causal relations between the series. Based on the arbitrage ofICF, the results suggest that the rise of ChineseHPis the underlying force for the inflows of international capital. Meanwhile, a surge in capital inflows may be accompanied by a rise in the price of housing. This confirms the theoretical analysis that there is an interconnected transmission mechanism between theICFand theHP, which is diverse and depends both on the flow ofICFand on other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Using a bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and a sub-sample rolling window estimation, this paper examines the causal link between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China. The results show that high inflation leads to high inflation uncertainty, supporting Friedman-Ball's hypothesis (1992) and Holland's theory (J Money Credit Bank 27:827-837, 1995). Furthermore, significant feedback exists from inflation uncertainty to inflation in some periods, supporting Holland's theory (J Money Credit Bank 27:827-837, 1995) that inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on inflation. We find that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty varies across time. The Chinese monetary authority needs to ensure a quick and effective policy response to inflation development because doing so will help reduce inflation, eliminate many of the costs associated with high inflation and therefore minimize the marginal effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty. However, quantitative tools for China's monetary policy are also warranted. In the long term, the importance of keeping inflation low, stable, and predictable cannot be overemphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports in China based on the knowledge capital model (KK model, Markusen, 2002).Design/methodology/approach The bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window causality test is used to determine whether FDI can promote exports.Findings The full-sample causality test indicates no causal relationship from FDI to exports. However, considering structural changes of exports and FDI, the authors’ find that the full-sample test is not reliable. Instead, the authors use the rolling window causality test to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results present significant effects from FDI on exports, mostly around periods in which the proportion of FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is increasing. Specifically, positive impacts of FDI on exports are stronger than the negative impacts in China.Research limitations/implications The findings in this study suggest a significant time-varying nature of the correlation between FDI and exports. The promotion effect of FDI to exports is proved by the rolling window approach; it thus supports the KK model that divides FDI into lateral FDI and vertical FDI and proves that the constitution of FDI is critical to the relationship between FDI and exports.Practical implications China has been facing adjustment of its economic structure in recent years, and in this situation, increasing the proportion of FDI that can bring advanced production function is critical for the industrial structural adjustment.Originality/value This paper uses the bootstrap rolling window causality test to investigate the time-varying nature of the causality between FDI and exports, considering structural changes for the first time. The authors further deepen the previous research and draw a more realistic conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causal relationship between reserve accumulation and money supply in China over the period of 1999 M1–2015 M6. First, we use a Granger causality test and find that there is a unidirectional relationship from money supply growth to reserve accumulation growth; however, taking structural changes into account, we assess stability of parameters of the estimated vector autoregressive models. We find both the short-run and long-run relationships between money supply growth and reserve accumulation growth estimated using full-sample data are unstable over the sample period. This suggests that full-sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. We turn to propose a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. We find that two variables have causal relationships in some sub-periods. We argue that reserve accumulation growth has put pressure on money supply growth. However, in general, sterilization is effective, but not in few months 2006–2007. And money supply has a positive reserve accumulation from the second half of 2001–2003 because RMB was undervalued under the fixed exchange rate regime. We argue that the improvements of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime are crucial to break the relationship between reserve accumulation growth and the money supply growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we apply a stationarity test with a flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee [ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74 (2012) 574-599] to test the convergence of China's urbanization. We find that our approximation has greater power to detect U-shaped and smooth breaks than the linear method if the urbanization is, in fact, a stationary non-linear process. It shows that the stationarity of the urbanization level varies across different regions where urbanization levels are convergent mainly in the middle- and low-income regions in China, while the high-income regions' urbanization is divergent. This, in turn, shows that most of the regions, especially high-income regions, have their own economic evolution rules due to the degree of openness in the economy and urbanization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green credit policy (GCP) can achieve economic growth and environmental conservation, notably by lowering air pollutants (PM2.5). Green credit is a significant component of China's green financing for environmental regulation and achieving carbon neutrality. In this paper, to understand the causal relationship between GCP and PM2.5, we apply a bootstrap full-sample Granger causality test, parameter stability test, and quantile-on-quantile test for the period between 2003:M01 to 2019:M12. The result shows a bidirectional relationship and reveals that GCP has varied environmental implications in its early and mature stages because of a low percentage of green credit and a lack of motivation for financial institutions. In the long run, GCP and PM2.5 interaction confirm the favorable effects of GCP on PM2.5 as the green credit system improves. For robustness, we used quantile-based granger causality to evaluate the causative link between GCP and PM2.5. In light of the findings, this research advises legislative reforms and stresses the relevance of green credit in improving air quality. This study adds additional evidence that air pollution affects green credit policies. Air quality being a leading indicator helps firms anticipate changes in bank credit preferences and alter financing techniques. • The study explores the causal relationship between GCP and PM2.5 • The study used advanced econometrics methods for the period 2003:M01 to 2019:M12. • The result shows a bidirectional relationship between GCP and PM2.5. • GCP has a positive influence on PM2.5 as the green credit system improves. • This study adds further evidence that air pollution affects green credit policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between real effective exchange rates (REERs) and the consumer price index (CPI) in China, utilizing a bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and a sub-sample rolling-window estimation. Considering structural changes, we assess the stability of the parameters and find that both the short-run and long-run relationships between the two estimated variables are unstable. This result suggests that full-sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. We instead employ a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and we find that the CPI is affected by the REER for several sub-samples due to the role of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) under the managed floating exchange rate regime in China. These findings provide further proof of the impact of stable exchange rates on the maintenance of relatively steady price levels especially during the economic crisis and economic reform in China. The policy implication of these findings is that maintaining exchange rate stability is beneficial for controlling inflation during the economic crisis and economic reform. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese money supply growth and inflation, using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation test to determine whether such a relationship in China supports the quantity theory of money. The result indicates that there is a unidirectional relationship from inflation to money supply growth. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that short-run relationships using full-sample data are unstable, which suggests that full-sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. Then, we use a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results show that money supply growth has both positive and negative impacts on inflation in several sub-periods, and in turn, inflation has the same effects on money supply growth for China. These findings are basically consistent with the modern quantity theory of money from the perspective of money supply and price level. When money supply growth does not outweigh output growth, inflation should not be curbed only by decreasing money supply. It notes that a stable money supply growth is critical to price level stability and economic development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we developed the recursive unit root tests to identify the beginning and end of potential speculative bubbles in the Chinese housing price cycles during 2006-2013 for the 70 major cities of China. The method is best suited for a practical implementation with a time series and delivers a consistent date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations demonstrate that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains when multiple bubbles occur. Overall, the results indicate that the speculative housing price bubbles in China are not bursting, and they indicate that the stationarity of the housing price level varies across the different city sizes. Between the cities, approximately one-fourth of the bubbles have burst up to December 2013, while the first-tier city bubble may not burst due to the urbanization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses recently developed generalized sup ADF (GSADF) unit root tests into the analysis of nominal RMB–dollar exchange rates bubbles. Based on the results from the GSADF tests, we find strong evidence of explosive behaviour in the nominal exchange rate and investigate two bubbles there. The first bubble is during 2005–2006 which is determined neither by the relative prices of traded goods nor the relative price of nontraded goods. The second bubble busts in 2008 during subprime crisis period, and which is determined by the relative prices of traded goods but not the relative price of nontraded goods. There is no bubble before 2005 as the exchange rate is under fixed regime. As for this result, some expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are required in China since these are the most efficient and effective under a bubble burst scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a bootstrap panel Granger causality test to determine the relationship between urbanisation and economic growth for China. We find that the patterns of interaction between urbanisation and economic growth vary across different regions. The empirical results show that in urbanisation of the northern coastal region and most of the inland region Granger causes economic growth, whereas economic growth does not have a significant effect on urbanisation, except in the southern coastal region and the inland region. One-fourth of China’s provinces, primarily in the southern coastal region, do not show a Granger causality relationship between urbanisation and economic growth. This finding indicates that urbanisation has promoted economic growth by expanding demand and that economic growth’s effect on urbanisation is restricted by administrative intervention rather than market mechanisms. Thus, the findings for three-fourths of the provinces in China conform to the urbanised economy theory. These results may help regional governments undergoing urbanisation to create fair economic growth policies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and the urban-rural income gap in China. We find that patterns of interaction between urbanization and the urban-rural income gap vary according to different regions. Empirical results show that urbanization does Granger-cause an urban-rural income gap, mainly in the Eastern region of China. In one-third of all provinces, the urbanization levels have a significant impact on the urban-rural income gap; however, the urban-rural income gap does not play a significant role in urbanization. The Eastern region's result is also in line with Kuznets's (1955) theory. These results could help regional governments develop fair policies for urban and rural income distribution in the process of urbanization of different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]