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Water inrush is a serious geological disaster in deep coal mining and rock engineering in China. The occurrence of water inrush is affected by the interaction of many controlling factors in underground reservoir areas. In order to improve the accuracy of water inrush risk evaluation, the changes in index weights due to the change in influencing factors and the uncertain factors should be both considered. In this study, an evaluation model that integrates variable weight and unascertained measure (VWUM) theories was established. First, a modified credible degree recognition was established to make the evaluation results represent both the evaluation grade and the difference in the degree to which the indexes belong to the same grade. Then, the VWUM model was established by coupling the variable weight, unascertained measure, modified credible degree recognition, and geographic information system (GIS). Last, the VWUM model is applied to a case study to evaluate water inrush risk. Results indicates that more detailed risk grades and their spatial distribution zones can be obtained by the VWUM model compared with those obtained by the water inrush coefficient. The VWUM model can provide a more accurate evaluation result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water-richness of Quaternary unconsolidated aquifers is closely related to the safe production of coal mining in shallow area near the Quaternary System. We attempt to establish a model for evaluating the water-richness of the unconsolidated aquifers quantitatively. We first obtained the main factors affecting the water-richness of the unconsolidated aquifers, including the aquifer thickness m, the proportion of the clay layer in the aquifer, the specific water yield q, and the permeability coefficient K. Using the AHP method mentioned above, the final weight for each affecting factor is illustrated in the vector w = (0.4921 0.1038 0.2686 0.1354). Secondly, we proposed the quantitative evaluation levels of the water-richness in the unconsolidated aquifers and the extension matter-element method to establish the evaluation model. Finally, we applied and verified the evaluation model by takeing the Xingyuan Coal Mine in China as an example. The results indicate that the water-richness of aquifer from the evaluation model are consistent with the field measurement results based on the ground transient electromagnetic method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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