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Aim: To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods., Methods: In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison., Results: During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients., Conclusion: Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care., (© 2024 The Author(s). Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Insulin-treated patients with long duration of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk of ketoacidosis related to sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i). The extent of circulating ketone elevation in these patients remains unknown. We conducted this study to compare the serum ketone response between dapagliflozin, an SGLT2i, and sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor, among insulin-treated T2DM patients., Methods: This was a randomized, open-label, active comparator-controlled study involving 60 insulin-treated T2DM patients. Participants were randomized 1:1 for 24-week of dapagliflozin 10 mg daily or sitagliptin 100 mg daily. Serum β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) levels were measured at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks after intervention. Comprehensive cardiometabolic assessments were performed with measurements of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC), vibration-controlled transient elastography and echocardiography., Results: Among these 60 insulin-treated participants (mean age 58.8 years, diabetes duration 18.2 years, glycosylated hemoglobin 8.87%), as compared with sitagliptin, serum BHB levels increased significantly after 24 weeks of dapagliflozin (P=0.045), with a median of 27% increase from baseline. Change in serum BHB levels correlated significantly with change in free fatty acid levels. Despite similar glucose lowering, dapagliflozin led to significant improvements in body weight (P=0.006), waist circumference (P=0.028), HDL-C (P=0.041), CEC (P=0.045), controlled attenuation parameter (P=0.007), and liver stiffness (P=0.022). Average E/e', an echocardiographic index of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, was also significantly lower at 24 weeks in participants treated with dapagliflozin (P=0.037)., Conclusion: Among insulin-treated T2DM patients with long diabetes duration, compared to sitagliptin, dapagliflozin modestly increased ketone levels and was associated with cardiometabolic benefits.

Background: Both lymphopenia and thyroid dysfunction are commonly observed among COVID-19 patients. Whether thyroid function independently correlates with lymphocyte counts (LYM) remains to be elucidated., Methods: We included consecutive adults without known thyroid disorder admitted to Queen Mary Hospital for COVID-19 from July 2020 to April 2021 who had thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3) and LYM measured on admission., Results: A total of 541 patients were included. Median LYM was 1.22 x 10 9 /L, with 36.0% of the cohort lymphopenic. 83 patients (15.4%) had abnormal thyroid function tests (TFTs), mostly non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS). Patients with lymphopenia had lower TSH, fT4 and fT3 levels than those without. Multivariable stepwise linear regression analysis revealed that both TSH (standardized beta 0.160, p<0.001) and fT3 (standardized beta 0.094, p=0.023), but not fT4, remained independently correlated with LYM, in addition to age, SARS-CoV-2 viral load, C-reactive protein levels, coagulation profile, sodium levels and more severe clinical presentations. Among the 40 patients who had reassessment of TFTs and LYM after discharge, at a median of 9 days from admission, there were significant increases in TSH (p=0.031), fT3 (p<0.001) and LYM (p<0.001). Furthermore, patients who had both lymphopenia and NTIS were more likely to deteriorate compared to those who only had either one alone, and those without lymphopenia or NTIS (p for trend <0.001)., Conclusion: TSH and fT3 levels showed independent positive correlations with LYM among COVID-19 patients, supporting the interaction between the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis and immune system in COVID-19., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Lui, Lee, Chow, Lee, Tam, Pang, Ho, Cheung, Fong, Law, To, Lam, Tan, Woo, Hung and Lam.)

Background: The occurrence of Graves' disease and Hashimoto thyroiditis after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) raised concerns that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may trigger thyroid autoimmunity. We aimed to address the current uncertainties regarding incident thyroid dysfunction and autoimmunity among COVID-19 survivors., Methods: We included consecutive adult COVID-19 patients without known thyroid disorders, who were admitted to Queen Mary Hospital from July 21 to September 21, 2020 and had serum levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone, free thyroxine, free triiodothyronine (fT3), and anti-thyroid antibodies measured both on admission and at 3 months., Results: In total, 122 patients were included. Among 20 patients with abnormal thyroid function tests (TFTs) on admission (mostly low fT3), 15 recovered. Among 102 patients with initial normal TFTs, two had new-onset abnormalities that could represent different phases of thyroiditis. Among 104 patients whose anti-thyroid antibody titers were reassessed, we observed increases in anti-thyroid peroxidase (TPO) (P<0.001) and anti-thyroglobulin (P<0.001), but not anti-thyroid stimulating hormone receptor titers (P=0.486). Of 82 patients with negative anti-TPO findings at baseline, 16 had a significant interval increase in anti-TPO titer by >12 U, and four became anti-TPO-positive. Worse baseline clinical severity (P=0.018), elevated C-reactive protein during hospitalization (P=0.033), and higher baseline anti-TPO titer (P=0.005) were associated with a significant increase in anti-TPO titer., Conclusion: Most patients with thyroid dysfunction on admission recovered during convalescence. Abnormal TFTs suggestive of thyroiditis occurred during convalescence, but infrequently. Importantly, our novel observation of an increase in anti-thyroid antibody titers post-COVID-19 warrants further follow-up for incident thyroid dysfunction among COVID-19 survivors.

Aims: To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment., Materials and Methods: This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts., Results: The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts., Conclusions: Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The skeletal indication for parathyroidectomy for primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is based on bone mineral density (BMD) T-score <  - 2.5. Whether trabecular bone score (TBS) additionally identifies patients who benefit from parathyroidectomy in terms of bone health is unknown. We aimed to study changes in BMD and TBS among Chinese who underwent curative parathyroidectomy for PHPT, in relation to their preoperative parameters, especially in those with worst site BMD T-score ≥  - 2.5 (non-osteoporotic range)., Methods: We included consecutive Chinese individuals who underwent curative parathyroidectomy during 2002-2015 for PHPT and completed preoperative and postoperative BMD and TBS measurements in Queen Mary Hospital. Correlations between preoperative parameters and changes in densitometric parameters were studied., Results: 45 Chinese individuals (13 men, 32 women) were included (mean age 62.0 ± 10.0 years and BMI 24.6 ± 4.7 kg/m 2 ). After parathyroidectomy, BMD at lumbar spine (LS) improved by 6.7% (p < 0.001) while TBS did not change. Among women, peak preoperative parathyroid hormone and calcium levels independently predicted LS BMD gain. Among women with BMD in non-osteoporotic range, LS BMD also improved after parathyroidectomy, where preoperative TBS was the only significant variable inversely correlating with percentage change in LS BMD (ρ - 0.775, p = 0.005). Particularly, those with preoperative TBS ≤ 1.25 gained 7.1% LS BMD post-parathyroidectomy (p = 0.003)., Conclusions: LS BMD, but not TBS, improved after parathyroidectomy. Among non-osteoporotic PHPT women, preoperative TBS inversely correlated with postoperative BMD improvement. Hence, low preoperative TBS may be an additional indication for surgical benefit with parathyroidectomy in non-osteoporotic PHPT women, as those with worse preoperative TBS tend to benefit more from surgery.

Introduction: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a prevalent and costly complication of diabetes with limited therapeutic options, being the leading cause of end-stage kidney disease in most developed regions. Recent big data studies showed that add-on Chinese medicine (CM) led to a reduced risk of end-stage kidney disease and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes. Astragalus, commonly known as huang-qi, is the most prescribed CM or used dietary herb in China for diabetes and DKD. In vivo and in vitro studies showed that astragalus ameliorated podocyte apoptosis, foot process effacement, mesangial expansion, glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis. Nevertheless, the clinical effect of astragalus remains uncharacterised. This pragmatic clinical trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of add-on astragalus in patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2-3 CKD and macroalbuminuria, and to identify related response predictors., Methods and Analysis: This is an add-on, assessor-blind, parallel, pragmatic randomised controlled clinical trial. 118 patients diagnosed with DKD will be recruited and randomised 1:1 to receive 48 weeks of add-on astragalus or standard medical care. Primary endpoints are the changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio between baseline and treatment endpoint. Secondary endpoints include adverse events, fasting blood glucose, glycated haemoglobin, lipids and other biomarkers. Adverse events are monitored through self-complete questionnaire and clinical visits. Outcomes will be analysed by regression models. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses will be conducted for different epidemiological subgroups and statistical analyses. Enrolment started in July 2018., Ethics and Dissemination: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong/Hospital Authority Hong Kong West/East/Kowloon Central clusters (UW 16-553/HKEC-2019-026/REC (KC/KE)-19-0049/ER-4). We will report the findings in medical journals and conferences. The dataset will be available on reasonable request., Trial Registration Number: NCT03535935., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major disease burden worldwide because it is associated with disabling and lethal complications. DM complication risk assessment and stratification is key to cost-effective management and tertiary prevention for patients with diabetes in primary care. Existing risk prediction functions were found to be inaccurate in Chinese patients with diabetes in primary care. This study aims to develop 10-year risk prediction models for total cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality among Chinese patients with DM in primary care., Methods and Analysis: A 10-year cohort study on a population-based primary care cohort of Chinese patients with diabetes, who were receiving care in the Hospital Authority General Outpatient Clinic on or before 1 January 2008, were identified from the clinical management system database of the Hospital Authority. All patients with complete baseline risk factors will be included and followed from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017 for the development and validation of prediction models. The analyses will be carried out separately for men and women. Two-thirds of subjects will be randomly selected as the training sample for model development. Cox regressions will be used to develop 10-year risk prediction models of total CVD and all-cause mortality. The validity of models will be tested on the remaining one-third of subjects by Harrell's C-statistics and calibration plot. Risk prediction models for diabetic complications specific to Chinese patients in primary care will enable accurate risk stratification, prioritisation of resources and more cost-effective interventions for patients with DM in primary care., Ethics and Dissemination: The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong-the Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (reference number: UW 15-258)., Trial Registration Number: NCT03299010; Pre-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)