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This paper employs a structural VAR model using five endogenous variables, including world crude oil prices, China's oil imports and share of world consumption, speculation, and OPEC supply. Monthly data from January 1997 to January 2012 is used to investigate the impacts of different factors on world crude oil prices. The empirical results suggest that OPEC supply is the main factor and China's oil consumption share is the second most important factor with an immediate effect on world oil prices between 1997 and 2012. During the third oil crisis from 2003 to 2008, speculation became the most important factor, and OPEC supply had a secondary short run and long run influence on oil prices. However, since 2009, OPEC supply has become the key factor, with China's oil consumption share the second most important factor determining oil prices. The China factor appears to be secondary to other factors in all three time frames and to act via the share of world consumption rather than via import volumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employing an advanced bootstrap VAR model with a fixed rolling window, we investigate the causal nexus between insurance activities and banking credit in China. Parameter stability tests show that none of the traditional VAR models have stable parameters, and hence the full sample results are unreliable. Rolling window results indicate the time-varying causal nexus between them in various subsamples in China and two key structural change points – the years 2002 and 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article presents a research paper on evaluation of the predictive power of Financial Condition Indices (FCI) by comparing the root mean-squared forecast errors (RMSFE). It discusses the use of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate as the key target for forecasting power of indices. It further discusses some steps of evaluation of indices including choosing different target, augmenting the value-added resellers (VAR) and model evaluation by the principle of encompassing.

With the VAR models developed and by virtue of the impulse response functions and variance analysis, the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China's overall consumer demand especially on the demand of some typical industries was studied in view of macro-economy and meso-industry. The empirical results showed that the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China's overall consumer demand is not significant in the recent decade, while the impact on the demand of oil/gas, ferrous metal smelting and metal working industries is more significant than that on transport equipment manufacturing industry. As to China' s electric power and heat supplies, the interpretability is tiny to the impact of international oil price fluctuation on consumers' demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988–2003 using a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques. The results show that while there is a bi-directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single-directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the dynamic panel data of 14 China banks from 1995 to 2004 ,the paper studies the relationship between the Bank concentration and efficiency. The evidence shows that concentration boosts bank efficiency. Meanwhile, the relationship between the loadable funds and bank efficiency is significantly positive, and the relationship between the total capital, the equate capital and bank efficiency is significantly negative, and the level of significance reduces except the bank concentration. Using the panel var, the paper finds all of the level of significance increase, while the coefficiency of regression decreases, and the net profit is positive to efficiency. Except the deposit funds, other variables are the "statistical " reasons for efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the economic crisis in Guangdong Sheng, China. It cites that the increasing land and labor costs have reduced the region's competitiveness. In response, the provincial authorities are taking a dual approach, such as moving low-value-added units to the province's less developed areas and integrating more closely with Hong Kong and Macao. Moreover, it discusses the ambitious roadmap for integrating three sides' financial sectors, including the creation of a pilot zone for financial cooperation between Hong Kong and Shenzhen before 2010.

Abstract: On the basis of the co-integration method and the VAR model, this paper analyzed the interactive relations among Chinese domestic trade, foreign trade and economic growth by impulse response faction, finding that at the 5% significant level, the economic growth relates to the domestic trade and the domestic trade to the foreign trade both in the manner of the bidirectional Granger causality; however, economic growth Granger causes foreign trade but foreign trade does not Granger cause economic growth. In the long run, economic growth can not only have self-promotion, but also have remarkable positive effects on both domestic trade and foreign trade; the domestic trade lacks organizing faculty and has little effect on economic growth; the foreign trade itself has big fluctuations but its effects on economic growth are significant though unstable; the two kinds of trade are in the relation of mutual substitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]