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In this paper, we forecasted the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) over the region of China using the bidirectional convolutional gated recurrent unit (BiConvGRU) model. We first generated the China Regional Ionospheric Maps (CRIMs) using GNSS observations provide by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). We then used gridded TEC maps from 2015 to 2018 with a 1 h interval from the CRIMs as the dataset, including quiet periods and storm periods of ionospheric TEC. The BiConvGRU model was then utilized to forecast the ionospheric TEC across China for the year 2018. The forecasted TEC was compared with the TEC from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2016), Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU), Bidirectional Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (BiConvLSTM), and the 1-day Predicted Global Ionospheric Map (C1PG) provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). In addition, indices including Kp, ap, Dst and F10.7 were added to the training dataset to improve the forecasting accuracy of the model (-A indicates no indices, while -B indicates with indices). The results verified that the prediction accuracies of the models integrated with these indices were significantly improved, especially during geomagnetic storms. The BiConvGRU-B model presented a decrease of 41.5%, 22.3%, and 13.2% in the root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the IRI-2016, ConvGRU, and BiConvLSTM-B models during geomagnetic storm days. Furthermore, at a specific grid point, the BiConvGRU-B model showed a decrease of 42.6%, 49.1%, and 31.9% in RMSE during geomagnetic quiet days and 30.6%, 34.1%, and 15.1% during geomagnetic storm days compared to the IRI-2016, C1PG, and BiConvLSTM-B models, respectively. In the cumulative percentage analysis, the BiConvGRU-B model had a significantly higher percentage of mean absolute error (MAE) within the range of 0–1 TECU in all seasons compared to the BiConvLSTM-B model. Meanwhile, the BiConvGRU-B model outperformed the BiConvLSTM-B model with lower RMSE for each month of 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is important data for ionospheric morphology, and also an important parameter for ionospheric correction in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) precise positioning, navigation, and radio science. In this study, we present a data assimilation model for regional ionosphere based on a local ensemble Kalman filter (LEnKF) with the International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016) model as the background, to assimilate ionospheric TEC observations from GNSS. To demonstrate the results, the TEC estimates from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC), which is about 260 stations in China, are applied as observation. The assessments are performed against the TEC estimates from BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and against the final products from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). The assimilation results are in good agreement with BDS GEO TEC and the CODE TEC on a quiet or disturbed day. The correlation coefficient after assimilation is increased by about 17% compared with that before assimilation, and the RMSE after assimilation is decreased by about 42% compared with that before assimilation. Furthermore, the assimilated method is also evaluated in the single-frequency precise point positioning (PPP). The experimental results indicate that the PPP/Assimilated method can improve the GNSS positioning accuracy more effectively in comparison to the PPP/CODE. These results reveal that the LEnKF method can be considered as a useful tool for ionospheric assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]