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The South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China is an important measure to promote the ecological civilization construction in the receiving areas. Since the operation of the east and middle routes, the comprehensive benefits are more and more remarkable. It is very significant to quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive benefits of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The idea of quantitative evaluation by the improved degree of the carrying capacity of regional water environment after water diversion is put forward in this paper. On the basis, combining with variable fuzzy set and cloud theory, a new comprehensive assessment model is established. According to the evaluation index system of water environmental carrying capacity and the index values of research area, the linear difference function value is generated randomly by triangular forward cloud generator, and then the variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out. Taking Haihe River Basin and Beijing City as typical research areas respectively, the comprehensive benefits of water supply from the diversion project in 2030 are analysed. The comprehensive evaluation method with variable cloud model considers both “good” and “bad” aspects and considers both randomness and fuzziness. Results show that the model is feasible and efficient. It is worth popularizing and applying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]