1. The Silver Lining of COVID‐19: Estimation of Short‐Term Health Impacts Due to Lockdown in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.
- Author
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Huang, Ling, Liu, Ziyi, Li, Hongli, Wang, Yangjun, Li, Yumin, Zhu, Yonghui, Ooi, Maggie Chel Gee, An, Jing, Shang, Yu, Zhang, Dongping, Chan, Andy, and Li, Li
- Subjects
STAY-at-home orders ,DELTAS ,COVID-19 ,PANDEMICS ,OBSTRUCTIVE lung diseases ,CORONARY disease - Abstract
The outbreak of COVID‐19 in China has led to massive lockdowns in order to reduce the spread of the epidemic and control human‐to‐human transmission. Subsequent reductions in various anthropogenic activities have led to improved air quality during the lockdown. In this study, we apply a widely used exposure‐response function to estimate the short‐term health impacts associated with PM2.5 changes over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region due to COVID‐19 lockdown. Concentrations of PM2.5 during lockdown period reduced by 22.9% to 54.0% compared to pre‐lockdown level. Estimated PM2.5‐related daily premature mortality during lockdown period is 895 (95% confidential interval: 637–1,081), which is 43.3% lower than pre‐lockdown period and 46.5% lower compared with averages of 2017–2019. According to our calculation, total number of avoided premature death aassociated with PM2.5 reduction during the lockdown is estimated to be 42.4 thousand over the YRD region, with Shanghai, Wenzhou, Suzhou (Jiangsu province), Nanjing, and Nantong being the top five cities with largest health benefits. Avoided premature mortality is mostly contributed by reduced death associated with stroke (16.9 thousand, accounting for 40.0%), ischemic heart disease (14.0 thousand, 33.2%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (7.6 thousand, 18.0%). Our calculations do not support or advocate any idea that pandemics produce a positive note to community health. We simply present health benefits from air pollution improvement due to large emission reductions from lowered human and industrial activities. Our results show that continuous efforts to improve air quality are essential to protect public health, especially over city‐clusters with dense population. Plain Language Summary: The outbreak of COVID‐19 is tragic and has caused tremendous impacts on people's life across the world. In late January 2020, massive lockdown was taken in China in order to prevent the spread of the pandemic and control human‐to‐human transmissions. As a result of reduced human activities, air quality was shown to improve substantially over China. A natural follow‐up question would be what is the short‐term health impact associated with the changes of air quality during the lockdown. This study attempted to quantify the number of avoided death due to reduced PM2.5 concentrations over the Yangtze River Delta Region in China, a region with dense population and used to suffer from severe air pollution problems in the past. Key Points: PM2.5 concentration decreased substantially during COVID‐19 lockdown in the Yangtze River Delta Region, ChinaNumber of PM2.5‐related premature death decreased due to lockdownAvoided premature mortality is mostly contributed by reduced death associated with stroke, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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