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Import and export commerce is a significant strategy for stimulating national economic growth and realizing foreign exchange. Based on the above, this research work dives into the delicate link between changes in China's peripheral diplomatic relations and their resultant consequences on export commerce in China's quickly developing global environment. It provides a unique combined forecasting model that combines autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to answer the pressing demand for accurate forecasts in this dynamic setting. First, a forecasting model is established for the influencing factors and volume of import and export trade of ASEAN. Second, it establishes the regression equation with the econometrics method by analyzing the specific impact of each influencing factor on the forecasting target. Moreover, it uses data statistics to mathematically process the historical data of ASEAN's import and export volume by determining the correlation between ASEAN's trade volume and some influencing factors. Regression analysis is often used to find relationships between variables. Adding ARIMA time-series modeling improves the model's prediction capabilities, providing a comprehensive insight into China–ASEAN import and export trade volume dynamics. Finally, it compares the performance of the suggested forecasting model to existing approaches, which proves that the correlation rate is enhanced to above 90%. In contrast, other error rates, including the average root, are decreased to the square error. These results show that the prediction model based on the combination of time series and LSTM produces the best short-term forecast of China and ASEAN import and export volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of Chinese participation in the external relationship of the economy of Mato Grosso do Sul is related mainly to two factors. First, the Chinese development itself. Second, the development of the internal economy of Mato Grosso do Sul as a result of the dynamism of change in its productive chains that occurred from 2006/2009. The main objective of this article is to analyze the commercial relations between the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and China in relation to the profound transformations verified in the portfolio of the parties involved, between 1997 and 2019. Until 2004, China occupied only 2.94% of imports, with a limited portfolio of products and, in 2019, was the second main partner in imports with 19.71%. Exports followed the upward movement until China became the main trading partner of Mato Grosso do Sul. In 2003, exports to China totaled less than 3% and in 2019 they reached 40.94%. The methodology used consisted in the study of important works related to Chinese development and the dynamics of the internal economy of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, besides systematization and analysis of statistical data from official organisms. Thus, it is noted, through this analysis, that there was a gradual increase in China's participation in exports to the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, including greater diversification, adding there products with higher technological content, such as containers, electric motors, integrated circuits and chemical industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]