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Carbon emission issues are becoming increasingly severe, and the carbon emissions in shrinking cities, primarily characterized by population loss, are often overlooked and insufficiently studied. This paper focuses on the carbon emissions from county-level administrative units in China's three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2017. The study scientifically identified shrinking cities and measured the differences in carbon emission characteristics between growing and shrinking cities using the Theil index. Ultimately, the paper constructs a panel spatial econometric model to analyze the factors influencing them and explore their spatial effects. (1) The total carbon emissions in the Three Northeastern Provinces exhibited an inverted U-shaped trend, increasing from 734.21 million tons in 2001 to 1731.73 million tons in 2017, with the Mann–Kendall trend test showing a significant increase; spatially, this manifests as a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (2) The region has 138 shrinking cities, accounting for over 50%; regarding carbon emission characteristics, the Theil index has consistently remained above 0.18, indicating significant differences between the carbon emissions of growing and shrinking cities. (3) The panel spatial econometric model results show that the influencing factors of carbon emissions in shrinking cities have unique directions, intensities, and spatial effects. In shrinking cities, aside from localized GDP effects and per-capita GDP acting as a suppressant, the population size has a pronounced inhibitory effect on local and surrounding carbon emissions. The analysis reveals significant differences in the carbon emission patterns and mechanisms between growing and shrinking cities; based on these results, the paper proposes differentiated carbon control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, an increasing number of Chinese cities have experienced population decline, impacting the urban economy, public services, and paid use of state-owned land (PUL). This paper employs a coupled coordination degree model and the gray correlation coefficient method to examine the relationship between the rate of population change from 1990 to 2020, the rate of PUL change from 2000 to 2020, and the coupled coordination of economy and public services. The study arrives at several conclusions: (1) Cities with declining populations exhibit a lower PUL rate than those without population shrinkage, indicating reduced activity in the land market. (2) Population growth plays a significant role in the coordinated development of the urban economy and public services, fostering urbanization. (3) The economy and public services in shrinking cities rely heavily on revenue generated from the transfer of PUL rights to support their coordinated development. This research provides an insightful comparison between shrinking and non-shrinking cities by integrating the unique compensated land transfer system in China with the critical variable of population change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land, particularly in terms of land use and price. This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and 'no data' areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau) as the fundamental units of analysis. By employing nighttime light (NTL) data to identify shrinking cities, the propensity score matching (PSM) model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices, and evaluate the magnitude of this influence. The findings demonstrate the following: 1) there were 613 shrinking cities in China, with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least. 2) Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities, especially in areas with diverse terrain. 3) The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels. 4) Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price (ATT = −0.1241, P < 0.05). However, the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions. This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities, ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China. Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China, this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object, and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019, analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector, and proposes a targeted regulation strategy. The results show that: 1) overall, there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces. The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development; 2) regarding the time dimension, the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time; 3) regarding the spatial pattern, the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west; 4) the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors; and 5) the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different. However, they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction, which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast, areas of negative population growth in the west, and areas of urban spatial change in the south. According to the causes of the impact, this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage has gradually become an issue of world-concerning social matter. As urbanization progresses, some Chinese cities are experiencing population loss and economic decline. Our study attempts to correct and integrate DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS data to complete the identification and measurement of shrinking cities in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). We identified 36 shrinking cities and 644 shrinking counties on the municipal and county scales. Based on this approach, we established the average urban shrinkage intensity index and the urban shrinkage frequency index, attempting to find out the causes of shrinking cities for different shrinkage characteristics, city types and shrinkage frequencies. The results show that (1) the shrinking cities are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster, the midstream city cluster and the Chengdu–Chongqing economic circle. (2) Most shrinking cities have a moderate frequency of shrinking, dominated by low–low clusters. Resource-based, heavy industrial, small and medium-sized cities are more inclined to shrink. (3) The single economic structure, the difficulty of industrial transformation and the lack of linkage among county-level cities are possible reasons for the urban shrinkage in the YREB. Exploring the causes of urban shrinkage from a more micro perspective will be an inevitable task for sustainable development in YREB and even in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrinking cities are a global issue with regional characteristics. This paper focuses on the county-level administrative units in the Three Northeastern Provinces in China to identify and classify shrinking cities using a two-step identification method and explores their spatial-temporal evolution. The paper utilizes the panel threshold regression model for empirical testing. The results indicate the following: (1) The number of shrinking cities in the region is large and deep. Quantitatively, the shrinking cities account for about 50% of the whole; spatially, there are six major shrinking city "groups", showing the distribution trend around the "Ha-Da" urban corridor. (2) The threshold effect test reveals that GDP is a critical threshold variable influencing the formation of shrinking cities. Moreover, cities are classified into three types based on the threshold values: Type I (GDP > 2,270,731 yuan), Type II (434,832 < GDP ≤ 2,270,731), and Type III (GDP < 434,832). (3) The results of the dual-threshold and grouped regression models show significant variations in the dominant factors of shrinking cities of different scales. Variables such as impervious area, fiscal revenue, and grass area demonstrate relatively stable promoting effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage has become a global phenomenon. Although China is still experiencing rapid urbanization, population losses arise in an increasing number of cities. As a booming industry, tourism is expected as a mean to create jobs and curb population loss. Can tourism industry contribute to revive the shrinking cities? Based on panel data of 54 shrinking cities in China, this article explores effects of tourism development on shrinking cities. The results show that there is no evidence that tourism has a significant impact on the population of the shrinking cities. However, tourism shows positive effects on these cities in terms of many aspects, including urban economy, employment, investment, and consumption. This indicates that tourism can revive shrinking cities by economic boom, rather than population growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1980s, rapid urbanization in China has been accompanied by city shrinkage. Identifying shrinking cities and clarifying the spatial and temporal patterns are of great significance for formulating policies and realizing smart shrinkage. City shrinkage characterized by population loss is a difficult challenge for urban planning and regional development policy-making. This paper uses 2012–2020 nighttime light (NTL) data to identify the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of shrinking cities in China and excavates the shrinking cities' trend of agglomeration and dispersion further. The following results are obtained. (1) About 34.9% of prefecture-level cities are shrinking across the country but most severely in northeast and northwest China; (2) the number of shrinking cities fluctuates over time (2015 and 2020 are the peak shrinkage years). Shrinking cities in China show a northeast-to-southwest spatial distribution. (3) From 2012 to 2020, the aggregation degree of shrinkage continuously decreased (Low-Low) and the aggregation degree of growth continuously increased (High-High), indicating that shrinkage in northeast China was slightly alleviated and that the radiative effect of the growth pole was further enhanced. These findings help us better understand the trend of city shrinkage in China. Future work needs to be focused on the potential causes of the shrinkage. Furthermore, long-term trends also need to be investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The theoretical framework of urban shrinkage and urban resilience is constructed. • A system dynamics model to measure the resilience of shrinking cities is provided. • The evolution process of the resilience of shrinking cities is identified. • The response policy of shrinking cities is analyzed from the perspective of resilience. Enhancing urban resilience is increasingly crucial for cities to achieve sustainable development. However, existing studies have a limited understanding of the resilience of shrinking cities and their response policies. Taking Yichun, a typical shrinking city in China, as an example, this study constructs a system dynamics model to assess urban resilience from a subsystem perspective and explores the relationship between the dynamic development of resilience and urban shrinkage from 2008 to 2028. Then, a smart decline response policy of Yichun is put forward. The findings indicate that the evolution curve of urban resilience shows a fluctuating growth trend as a whole and that the dominant subsystems of resilience are changing. The occurrence of urban shrinkage inhibits the dynamic development of urban resilience and has various effects on the subsystems of resilience. Compared with the regrowth strategy, the smart decline strategy can effectively improve the resilience and mitigate the adverse impact of urban shrinkage on the resilience under the condition of limited resources. Resilience can be proven to be a viable perspective to help formulate a response strategy of shrinking cities. These findings will enhance comprehension of the resilience of shrinking cities and provide a reference to address urban shrinkage and formulate corresponding governance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage, increasingly prevalent in fast-developing countries like China, is a complex phenomenon deeply influenced by globalization and localized factors. This study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, a high-growth region in China, to explore urban shrinkage and its driving factors. Adopting a physical city perspective and utilizing a two-step diagnostic method, the research precisely identifies shrinking cities within the circle and employs a geo-detector model for empirical analysis of influencing factors. Findings reveal a significant developmental imbalance within the circle, with sustainable and transitional growth cities located in core areas, whereas significantly shrinking and potential shrinking cities are found in peripheral zones. This pattern underscores the endogenous challenges of rapid urbanization. The study highlights that urban shrinkage results from interplay between demographic and economic changes, with fiscal autonomy, consumption levels, public service provision, per capita GDP, and industrial structure being key factors. Addressing urban shrinkage effectively requires a shift from traditional balanced development paradigms towards fostering regional coordinated growth, emphasizing the construction of a multi-core urban network and integrating small and medium-sized cities into the developmental process. This innovative approach not only enriches urban shrinkage research but also offers practical insights for sustainable urban governance. • Investigates urban shrinkage within China's Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle using a novel two-step diagnostic method. • Employs a geo-detector model to analyze the socio-economic and demographic factors influencing urban shrinkage. • Identifies four types of cities: sustainable, transitional, potential, and significantly shrinking cities. • Fiscal autonomy, consumption levels, public service provision, per capita GDP, and industrial structure are key influencing factors. • Offers insights for urban governance and sustainable development strategies applicable globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage has received extensive attention from scholars, planners, and urban policy makers. Residents' life satisfaction and migration intention are an important basis for predicting the future development trends of shrinking cities. This study takes Yichun, a typical shrinking city in China, as an example. Based on the satisfaction and migration intention data obtained from questionnaires and in-depth interviews, the authors use factor analysis and logistic regression models to explore the impact of urban shrinkage on residents' life satisfaction and migration intention, and the relationship between life satisfaction and migration intention. The results show that the overall life satisfaction of residents in Yichun City did not decline significantly due to urban shrinkage. The improvement of the environment and the reduction of life pressure brought about by urban shrinkage contributed to the improvement of life satisfaction, while the lack of employment opportunities, the decline of landscape, and the decline in the level of livability had negative effects on life satisfaction. Residents with low life satisfaction were more willing to move, but the personal attributes of residents also affected their migration intention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage is a world-wide phenomenon characterized by population loss in a short period of time. During this process, the decrease of the younger generation will further accelerate the demographic aging process through lowering birth rates. Although many studies have qualitatively addressed that demographic aging could be both a result and cause of urban shrinkage, empirical studies to examine their interrelations are lacking. This paper aims to examine their interrelationships by proposing an integrated model which covers the paths, effects, and interrelationships between shrinking cities and demographic aging in economic, spatial, and social dimensions. Based on the data from 138 county-level cities in China, partial least-square method is used for structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The results show that two indirect influence paths exist between shrinking cities and the demographic aging process. First, urban shrinkage has an indirect interaction with the demographic aging process via social and economic factors (path: shrinking cities ↔ society ↔ economy ↔ aging process). Second, urban shrinkage is also indirectly interrelated with the demographic aging process in spatial factors (path: shrinking cities ↔ space ↔ aging process). To deal with the double challenges of urban shrinkage and demographic aging, planning policies should integrate with policies in socio-economic and spatial aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compact development and efficient land use are effective ways to address the development dilemma and boost the vitality of shrinking cities. Moreover, it is critical to investigate the relationship between compactness and land-use efficiency in order to healthily and sustainably develop shrinking cities. This study developed an analytical framework to study the coordinated interaction between urban compactness and land-use efficiency in the context of city shrinkage. Fifteen typical shrinking cities in Northeast China were taken as an example of the phenomenon and the entropy value method and super-slack-based measure model were used to quantitatively measure the compactness and land-use efficiency. Furthermore, the coordinated development level and the coordinated relationship between the two were explored with the help of the coupled coordination degree model as well as the quadrant diagram method. The results of the study show that: (1) The overall level of compactness of 15 shrinking cities in Northeast China was low and the improvement of land-use efficiency was not obvious, while the differences of compactness and land-use efficiency between shrinking cities were significant. (2) The coordination between compactness and land-use efficiency was limited; however, the overall coordination remained intermediate, with significant spatial differences and a tendency to further expand. The problem of lagged development of land-use efficiency in shrinking cities could be characterized as serious. (3) Economic development and population size promote the coordinated development of urban compactness and land-use efficiency, whereas science and technology development, industrial structure, as well as government regulation inhibited the coordinated development of urban compactness and land-use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decrease in population is an emerging challenge in China's urbanization trajectory. This study utilizes data from the Sixth and Seventh Population Censuses to identify Chinese cities experiencing population decline, focusing on prefecture-level cities. It employs 30 indicators relevant to nine Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) concerning urban areas and populations to evaluate the progress of these shrinking cities in 2010 and 2020. A novel metric, "SDG population elasticity", is introduced to quantify the association between population reduction and SDG indexes. The study employs K-means++ clustering for 130 shrinking cities. The findings reveal that out of the 130 cities, 63 exhibit a downward trend in SDG index scores, predominantly in China's northeast and western regions. The Northeast region has negative SDG population elasticity, indicating a lag in sustainable development compared to that in other areas. Additionally, the research categorizes China's shrinking cities into four groups: cities with strong population elasticity feedback-significantly declining SDGs, cities with weak population elasticity feedback-slightly regressing SDGs, cities with high population loss-negative SDGs in decline, and cities with smart population decline-steady SDGs growth. These findings offer a foundation for crafting bespoke policies in shrinking cities to ensure a balanced approach to sustainable development and monitor advancement toward achieving the SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continued population loss in the context of urban shrinkage has led to the transformation and reconfiguration of urban land use space, which in turn has had a major impact on regional habitats and ecosystem services. To explore the status of habitat quality (HQ) in shrinking cities, based on land use data from 2010 to 2020, this study uses the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of HQ in shrinking cities. Then, we reveal the shrinkage effect of HQ in shrinking cities from the perspective of population change rate, and detect the dominant influencing factors of HQ in different types of shrinking cities with the help of geographical detector. The results show that:(1) From 2010 to 2020, the primary land use types in both shrinking and non-shrinking cities of the three northeastern provinces were forestland and cropland. However, there were significant differences in the area of construction land between the two categories of cities. (2) The HQ in both shrinking and non-shrinking cities showed a declining trend, yet the HQ index of shrinking cities was higher than that of non-shrinking cities. (3) The distribution of HQ in shrinking cities has a significant shrinkage effect, and HQ index gradually strengthens as urban shrinkage intensifies. Low-quality habitats have a strong distributional advantage in slightly shrinking cities, while severely shrinking cities tend to be dominated by high-quality habitats. (4) Population profile, economic development, industrial structure and built environment are important factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of HQ in shrinking cities. However, the spatial determinants of HQ vary significantly among different types of shrinking cities in terms of dimensions and indicators, with two-factor interactions exerting a stronger influence than single-factor impacts. Based on the findings of this study, the government can formulate differentiated habitat protection measures, dynamically adjust, and optimize them according to the distribution characteristics of HQ grades in shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike shrinking cities in Western countries enduring prolonged disinvestment due to market liberalism, some of their counterparts in Northeast China are undergoing drastic redevelopment under state capitalism. However, the challenges and effects of implementing such redevelopment in shrinking cities remain to be seen. This study examined a specific state-led shantytown (quasi-formal settlement) redevelopment policy entitled "Regulation Methods on Shantytown Redevelopment in State-Owned Forestry Areas" that was designed and implemented in state-owned forestry areas beginning in 2010 to construct affordable housing and compensate local residents adversely impacted by the logging ban initiated in 2000. The study analyzed the implementation of this policy in Yichun, a shrinking forestry city in China's rust belt (Northeast China). The implementation of this policy differs from China's typical privately funded market-led redevelopment in other areas, in terms of combining the rigorous implementation of central government's policy and funding in tandem with the discretionary actions of the local state-owned forestry bureau. Although the Regulation Methods policy has improved the living conditions of participating families', it has been only partially implemented and is facing three major challenges: the unstable partnership between different tiers of government, social resistance from grassroots, and overdraft of local credibility and capability. This study concluded that the Yichun case represents a case of problematic state-led redevelopment (analogous in some ways to US postwar urban renewal) where state planning power does not adequately address public needs, particularly household socioeconomic considerations and thus will not save shrinking cities from population decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After approximately 30 years of sustained and rapid development, some Chinese cities have seen urban shrinkage marked by a decreasing population size. Land finance, which is the second public finance of local governments in China, influences urban development through capital and land supply. It is the primary source of funds for urban infrastructure construction and the driving force behind promoting urban boundary expansion. In the context of the overall downturn of domestic land finance, land finance contraction for shrinking cities may accelerate the further decline of population in these cities. This paper investigated 84 key cities across China between 2008 and 2015 and found that (1) the contraction of land finance has heterogeneous impacts on shrinking cities and nonshrinking cities, which, in turn, has significant catalytic effect on population loss in shrinking cities; and (2) the insufficient replenishment of capital caused by the contraction of land finance in shrinking cities has a more significant impact than the insufficient supply of land. Infrastructure investment has a complete mediation effect in this influencing mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Despite the fact that China is becoming increasingly urbanised, some Chinese cities have witnessed a loss of urban population. In recent years, with the extensive expansion of the Chinese High-Speed Railway (HSR) network, the reduction in travel time has greatly increased the mobility of people across cities, thus affecting the spatial redistribution of the urban population in China. An important question arises: for cities experiencing population loss, when they were connected to the HSR network, did the HSR further aggravate this urban shrinkage? Using cities experiencing population loss as a sample, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of population loss in HSR-served cities. A Difference-in-Difference (DID) method was adopted to investigate whether the HSR aggravated population loss in shrinking cities. On the whole, empirical results show that the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in China was further aggravated by the HSR. Furthermore, the results unveil the dynamic impact of the HSR on shrinking cities, and multi-stage DID results reveal that the impact of the HSR on urban population may have a certain time lag effect. The HSR has significantly contributed to the population loss of shrinking cities four to five years after it first started operating. The paper highlights that the HSR does not always yield growth opportunities; on the contrary, for cities suffering from population decline, the HSR may bring a serious challenge. Highlights • The phenomenon of urban shrinkage in China was further aggravated by the HSR. • The multi-stage DID results reveal that the impact of HSR on urban population may have a certain time lag effect. • The paper highlights that HSR does not always yield growth opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study exposes and maps a hitherto little‐known dimension of China's urban geography – that of shrinkage, directly affecting one in 10 of its cities. Urban shrinkage is revealed to be a growing concern for the most populous country on earth, with the absolute number of shrinking cities rising by 71% from 164 in the 1990s to 281 in the 2000s. By developing its own definition of the city as an urban area (UA) in the Chinese political‐administrative context, this paper builds a morphologic taxonomy of China's shrinking cities. This reveals the overall net population loss across Chinese shrinking cities more than doubling since 1990, reaching 7.3 million inhabitants in 2010. Sixty‐eight Chinese UAs, mostly in north‐eastern China, are found to have been shrinking continuously since 1990. Despite the multifaceted and entangled make‐up of urban shrinkage, the paper identifies four distinct causes of this geographical phenomenon in China: (1) state‐incubated reindustrialisation and economic restructuring, impacting upon 63% of all shrinking UAs; (2) the country's new economic geography, with the underlying centripetal forces of agglomeration pushing around 34% of all shrinking cities towards marginalisation; (3) state‐propelled demographic change, leading to natural population decline in 26% of Chinese shrinking cities; and (4) state‐sponsored mega‐shrinkage, responsible for urban population loss in almost 20% of all the cases. This study further provides a theoretically informed reflection on the peculiarity of shrinkage in China and its public policy implications. This study exposes and maps a hitherto little‐known dimension of China's urban geography – that of shrinkage, directly affecting one in ten of its cities. The paper also identifies four distinct causes of this geographical phenomenon in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research focusing on the impact of urban shrinkage on residents' lives shows that the overall quality of life and satisfaction in shrinking cities are not necessarily as low as people generally believe. To provide an insightful explanation for such a phenomenon, this article investigates the mechanisms of residents' overall life satisfaction in shrinking cities. Existing research has explored this question from objective and macro perspectives. However, it has not explained why a decline in the objective environment may not necessarily lead to residents' dissatisfaction. Therefore, this study aims to provide additional explanations based on individual perceptions of urban shrinkage and differences between groups. We employed the structural equation model (SEM) and multiple group analysis to conduct an empirical study in Yichun, a shrinking city in north-eastern China. Our findings indicate that positive perceptions of urban shrinkage, policy and planning practices, and urban development prospects positively impacted residents' overall life satisfaction. In contrast, negative perceptions of urban shrinkage negatively influenced overall life satisfaction. Furthermore, residents' varying perceptions can affect each another. Finally, groups differentiated by gender, age, retirement status, and length of residence demonstrated notable differences. The overall life satisfaction of men, older individuals, retired residents, and those who had lived in Yichun for over 20 years was more strongly influenced by their perceptions. This study establishes that residents' perceptions of different aspects of urban shrinkage significantly impact their overall life satisfaction. This finding provides a more in-depth explanation of why and how residents in shrinking cities might experience higher or lower life satisfaction levels. The policy implications of this research are that the government should concern more about the perceptions of the remaining residents and strengthen public communication and policy announcements. • We identify four main categories of perceptions in shrinking cities. • Residents' perceptions significantly influence their overall life satisfaction in shrinking cities. • Different groups have distinct influential paths from perceptions to overall life satisfaction. • Governments in shrinking cities should prioritize effective policy announcements and public communication. • Mixed-methods are employed to explain the influential factors of overall life satisfaction within the context of urban shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Infilling growth patterns help reduce PM2.5 concentrations. • Urban shrinkage adds to air pollution in northeastern provinces. • The compact growth of shrinking cities leads to severe air pollution. • Shrinking urban functions and infilling land growth combined foster air pollution. Air pollution is an important issue facing the sustainable development of cities. In the context of rapid urbanization in China, a considerable number of cities show the coexistence of external morphological expansion and internal functional shrinkage, as well as obvious spatial heterogeneity in a large-scale region. The systematic construction of their interaction mechanisms is of great significance for air pollution remediation. Therefore, this study attempts to apply geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyze the effect of urban growth patterns and urban shrinkage on air quality based on 10-year PM 2.5 concentration change data from 174 prefecture-level cities in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The relationship between urban growth pattern and air quality has spatial heterogeneity. (2) The impact of shrinking cities on air quality is greater in colder regions and highly industrialized areas. (3) Urban growth pattern and shrinking cities show significant antagonistic effects on air quality, and the infilling growth of shrinking cities can cause serious deterioration of air quality. Considering the different urban evolutionary paths in developed and developing countries, this study provides different suggestions for city managers to promote sustainable urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource-based cities play a crucial role in China's economic development. However, they are faced with the challenge of urban shrinkage due to the slowdown of economic growth in China, single industrial structure and the ‘boom and bust’ industrial cycle. To reverse the expected decline of these cities in the future, the Chinese Government has implemented active policies at national, provincial and municipal levels. This paper reviews the current planning policies and practices in resource-based cities in China from the macro perspective, and analyses how the Government engages with the pressing economic problems faced by resource-based cities, in particular, focussing on economic restructuring. To further analyse the policies from Central Government and the diversification of practices in local contexts, this paper presents two case studies, a petroleum mining city (Daqing City) and a coal mining city (Pingxiang City). Through discussion and an evaluation of general and place-based policies and practices for resource-based cities, this paper aims to enhance the understanding of shrinking cities in China and shed light on the policy-making of economic development for other resource-based cities in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban shrinkage at regional scales is characterized by greater complexity. • Shrinking types are distinguished based on degree, trajectory and dimensionality. • The heterogeneity of shrinkage in sub-region of the riverine area is significant. • A multi-level managing system is essential for the upper, middle and lower reaches. Explorations of urban shrinkage at regional scales have received much attention around the world. The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), one of the most influential inland river economic belts in the world, has not yet received sufficient attention to its urban shrinkage issue. This study explored the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of shrinking cities in the YREB within a multidimensional framework, including population, economy, and space. The results showed that the degree of demographic, economic, and spatial shrinkage is mainly slight or moderate in the YREB. In terms of shrinking duration, these shrinking cities mainly undergo temporary shrinkage. The majority of cities undergo shrinkage in only one dimension, accounting for more than 62% of all shrinking cities. The spatial heterogeneity of shrinking cities mainly comes from within reaches and urban agglomerations, while there is little difference in shrinkage between reaches and between urban agglomerations. Fixed asset investment, total social consumption, the industrial output value above the scale, and the built-up area had significant impacts on the population agglomeration, economic agglomeration, and public service accessibility of multidimensionally shrinking cities. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity and dynamics of shrinkage suggest that a multi-level management system should be constructed to cope with urban shrinkage in different regions of the YREB. This study can provide a reference for narrowing the developmental imbalance for the YREB and contributes to promoting the research progress of urban shrinkage at regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource-based economies often face the challenge of resource depletion and population shrinkage. After reaching a production peak, cities confront slower economic development and the inability to attract skilled workers, often leading many resource-based cities to experience urban shrinkage. This prompts questions regarding whether residents of resource-based cities are concerned about liveability indicators beyond job opportunities and whether residents would stay if a city were more liveable. This research has employed a mixed-methods approach to examine the relationship between urban liveability and migration intention. We collected data via a questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews in seven resource-based cities in the Northeast and Northwest regions of China characterised by slow or negative population growth. Our mixed-methods approach identifies five main dimensions of factors affecting an individual's migration intention: job opportunities, employability and prospects with the mining industry; transport; public facilities; age, life cycle stage and family consideration; income and financial considerations. Our findings confirm that certain aspects of liveability significantly affect migration intention. Our subsequent analysis suggests that there is a skills gap between newly created employment opportunities and the labour force in resource-based cities. These issues call for government action to improve the liveability of resource-based cities and retain skilled workers. • A mixed-methods approach to study migration intention in resource-based cities • We identify and discuss five main categories of influential factors. • Certain aspects of liveability significantly affect migration intention. • Skill gaps may exist between newly created jobs and existing skills of labour force. • Improved intra- and inter-city transport infrastructure can retain population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrinking cities are a category of cities characterized by population loss, and the environmental problems of these cities are often neglected. Using panel data from 2012 to 2019, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China and the driving factors. The results find that: (1) From 2012 to 2019, carbon emissions tend to increase in shrinking cities and decrease in non-shrinking cities. Due to earlier industrial development and ecological neglect, shrinking cities in Northeast China have higher carbon emissions than other regions. (2) Population size, industrial structure and public services promote the growth of carbon emissions in shrinking cities. The influence of living environment on carbon emissions in shrinking cities is not significant. There is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic level and carbon emission. (3) In shrinking cities, the increase in commuting time and distance due to spatial expansion promotes the growth of carbon emissions. Foreign investment decreases with the loss of population, which reduces carbon emissions. Technological progress gradually declines as investment in science and technology decreases, which makes carbon emissions grow. This paper clarifies the driving factors of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China, and therefore, the findings of this paper have important reference value for the formulation of carbon reduction policies in shrinking cities in developing countries. • Carbon emissions in shrinking cities tend to grow. • Shrinking cities have higher carbon emissions compared to non-shrinking cities. • The characteristic factors of shrinking cities affect carbon emissions. • Carbon emissions from shrinking cities have spatial effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyzed the evolution characteristics of SUHI in 180 shrinking cities in China. • Long-term and large range SUHI were extracted by Google Earth Engine platform. • SUHII of 180 shrinking cities weaken during the day and strengthen at night. • SUHI in shrinking cities were compared with those in typical expanding cities. • The SUHI effect of shrinking cities was alleviated with population loss. Under the background of rapid urbanization, the urban heat island effect becomes more and more intense, which is common in many big cities. However, it is unclear whether this change will lead to a new turnaround in the mitigation of the urban heat island effect in shrinking cities with population loss. In this study, based on the MODIS product from 2001 to 2019, we analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of surface urban heat island (SUHI) in 180 shrinking cities in China. The changes of SUHI at different scales in combination with latitude and climate zones were quantified. The results showed that SUHI intensity varied greatly in different latitudes and climate zones. In the arid zone, the SUHI intensity is the lowest in the daytime and the highest in the night. Combined with the SUHI characteristics of typical expanding cities, SUHI of shrinking cities in China shows a decreasing trend. This indicates that in shrinking cities, the decrease of population has a certain easing effect on SUHI. However, the driving mechanism behind it needs to be further explored so as to put forward specific measures to alleviate SUHI more specifically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global trend of urban shrinkage, urban vitality, as one of the important representations of high-quality urban development, has become a breakthrough. More and more scholars advocate to awaken urban vitality, so as to realize the high-quality development of shrinking cities. This paper takes the municipal districts of 34 cities in the three northeastern provinces of China as study areas, based on the broad concept of urban shrinkage, selects the indicators of population, economy and society, and uses the "two-step diagnostic method" which is consistent with Chinese conditions to identify the urban shrinkage from 2010 to 2018. In this research, the indexes of economic, social, cultural, environmental and spatial dimensions are selected, and the urban vitality and the vitality of each dimension from 2010 to 2018 are calculated and analyzed by using the entropy weight method (EWM). Then, this paper analyzes the correlation between urban shrinkage and urban vitality by Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show that: (1) urban shrinkage in the three northeastern provinces of China has become a regional remarkable phenomenon, which is also an inevitable process in some regions of China and even the world; (2) overall, the urban vitality of cities in the three northeastern provinces of China is steady and rising a little, and there is an obvious spatial agglomeration pattern like "central city polarization"; (3) there is a significant correlation between urban shrinkage and urban vitality, that is, the lower the degree of urban shrinkage, the higher the urban vitality, showing the opposite trend in the process of urban development; (4) the influence of urban shrinkage on each dimension of urban vitality is different, and the correlation results are different, too. In the planning process of shrinking cities in the future, paying attention to the relationship between urban vitality and urban shrinkage, conducting benign guidance on this basis, and adjusting urban vitality elements of different dimensions to stimulate urban development power can enhance urban competitiveness and achieve better development.

The city shrinkage characterized by population loss has provided new challenges to the traditional 'growth' focused on by urban planners and policy makers. Since China has undergone a stage of scale expansion and overall growth, the country's city shrinkage crisis has not attracted sufficient academic attention. The paper studies the spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of China's shrinking cities by constructing a decision model of the shrinking city. The results show that although growth is still the main theme of city development in China. Shrinkage or potential shrinkage has gradually also emerged as prominent, and showing certain spatial agglomeration distribution characteristics. Socioeconomic development, urban environment, urban space scale and population development were also found jointly to affect city shrinkage. These research conclusions provide a reference point for the government and planners to formulate evidence based urban development policies and guide shrinking cities down the path of smart shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While China's urbanization has been characterized by 'growth-oriented' development models, the recent literature has highlighted the emergence of urban shrinkage in China, i.e., cities and regions that endure sustained population losses. For example, some mining towns in Northeast China have been losing both population and economic growth. Extending from Martinez-Fernandez et al.'s (2012) theoretical conjecture that urban shrinkage is a 'symptom' of the lack of global/external economic connections, this paper assesses whether the loss of investment precedes urban shrinkage. The empirical study draws upon a unique dataset of investment flows between mainland Chinese cities. The analysis shows that the correlation between investment network centrality and urban population changes is positively significant, and this significance is increased after the lag period of investment network centrality is prolonged. Furthermore, when the value of investment network centrality climbs, their effect on urban population changes is going to be enlarged. The results are highly policy-relevant and will inform future policies regarding urban shrinkage management. • Investigate the typology of urban trajectories in China from both population changes and investment connections. • The correlation between investment network centrality and urban population changes is positively significant. • When the value of investment network centrality climbs, their effect on urban population changes is going to be enlarged. • The lack of external economic connections will lead to population shrinkage. • Population shrinkage also has comparatively few effects on the reduction of external investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although shrinking cities' socio-economic sustainability has been focused in academia, the diffusing nature of shrinking cities' environmental impact has rarely been systematically investigated. It remains uncertain the spatial extent of the effect of shrinking cities has on the environment. In this study, we address this issue by calculating the concentration of PM 2.5 in the built-up area of 640 prefecture-level and county-level cities in China, and applying the Spatial Dubin Model (SDM) to analyze the spatial relationship between shrinking cities, built-up area expansion, and air pollution in China between 2000 and 2016. Our statistical findings indicate a negative relationship between shrinking cities and increased air pollution, both directly and indirectly. When cities contract, the growth of air pollution in local and surrounding areas decreases by 0.143% and 0.635%, respectively. However, shrinking cities associated with urban built-up area expansion have relatively higher air pollution growth. They contribute 0.598% and 4.968%, respectively, to the increase in air pollution in the local and surrounding areas. Besides, local economic development in mitigating air pollution has a positive spatial spillover effect on air quality in the neighboring cities. In contrast, local population size has a negative spatial spillover effect. The above findings contribute knowledge to the convoluted spatial dynamics between urban decline and air pollution in China. The associated policy implications are also discussed. [Display omitted] • Precisely calculate the PM 2.5 concentration in the built-up area of 640 prefecture/county-level cities in China. • Apply spatial econometric models to trace the local and spatial spillover effect of shrinking cities on air pollution growth. • When cities contract, air pollution growth in local and surrounding areas drops by 0.143% and 0.635%. • Built-up area expansion in shrinking cities causes air pollution growth in local and surrounding areas by 0.598% and 4.968%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shrinking of cities has become an increasingly global phenomenon, posing challenges for sustainable urban development. However, most focus remains on Europe and North America, and relatively little attention has been paid to the East Asia, especially the urbanizing China. Nighttime light (NL) dataset and its features (long-term time-series free access and large coverage) provide an alternative means to quantify shrinking cities. Here, we developed a new approach to identify shrinking cities and measure urban shrinkage, using corrected-integrated DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS NL data. Based on this approach, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of shrinking cities in China from 1992 to 2019. Our study identified 153 shrinking cities in China during the study period, accounting for 23.39% of all 654 cities. These shrinking cities were widely distributed across eight economic regions and most provinces. The number of shrinking cities changed periodically and peaked following the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and again after the Global Economic Crisis in 2008. The cities that experienced the greatest shrinkage intensity were mainly distributed in northeast China, with severe urban shrinkage occurring between 2008 and 2013. The new approach proposed in this study can effectively identify shrinking city hotspots and key periods of urban shrinkage. Our findings suggest that sustainable urban development in China must consider shrinking cities, which are faced with challenging and urgent sustainability issues different from those by rapidly growing cities. • We proposed a method to quantify shrinking cities using two nighttime-light data. • About 23% of Chinese cities were identified as shrinking cities from 1992 to 2019. • Shrinking cities were widespread in all economic regions and most provinces. • Shrinking cities increased periodically and peaked after financial/economic crises. • The most severe urban shrinkage occurred in northeast China between 2008 and 2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The CO 2 emission-mitigation policies adopted in different Chinese cities are important for achieving national emission-mitigation targets. China faces enormous inequalities in terms of regional economic development and urbanization, with some cities growing rapidly, while others are shrinking. This study selects 280 cities in China and divides them into two groups of growing cities and two groups of shrinking cities. This is achieved using an index called "urban development degree," which is calculated based on economic, demographic, social, and land-use indicators. Then, the 280 cities' CO 2 emission characteristics are examined, and extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) is used to verify the influencing factors. We find that rapidly growing cities (RGCs) present a trend of fluctuating growth in CO 2 emissions, rapidly shrinking cities (RSCs) show an inverted U-shaped trend, and slightly growing (SGCs) and slightly shrinking cities (SSCs) show a trend of rising first, followed by steady development. Moreover, for growing cities, the population, economy, and proportion of tertiary industry have positive effects on carbon emissions, while technology has negative effects. For shrinking cities, the population and economy have significant positive effects on carbon emissions, while technology and the proportion of tertiary industry have negative effects.

Many studies have explored the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in Chinese cities by examining the recent changes in the urban population. However, population change on its own may not capture the various aspects of urban shrinkage. Therefore, in this study, we built a multi-dimensional conceptual model involving demographic, economic, and social aspects to explore the varied urban development processes in China, and then conducted empirical studies in 269 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2010. We found that, although an approximate 12% of the cities in the sample experienced urban shrinkage along multiple dimensions, about 20% of the cities experienced population decline combined with economic growth and positive social development. The diverse urban development processes are closely related to the interplay of the central government's macro-regional development policies and the different local contexts. These findings suggest that researchers reconsider how they understand the urban population decline in Chinese cities and that the central government pay attention to the effects of current regional policies on urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the globalization era, shrinking cities have emerged as a widespread phenomenon and become a new buzzword in regional and urban research discourse. The Pearl River Delta (PRD), one of the most representative areas of rapid urbanization in China, is characterized by export-oriented economy and " exo -urbanization." Induced by the financial crisis of 2008, new spatial symptoms related to urban shrinkage, such as factory collapses, job losses, and vacant dwellings, were observed in this area. To investigate spatial-temporal characteristics of the crisis-induced shrinkage in the PRD, this paper proposes a theoretical approach to interpret urban growth and shrinkage in combination with economic, population, and land dimensions. Moreover, through an analysis of statistical data and in-depth interviews in the case of Dongguan, three primary influences (i.e., global financial crisis, demographic dividend diminishment, and change in institutional arrangement) on urban shrinkage in town-level cities are evaluated. This study not only contributes to the literature by analyzing the short-term urban shrinkage influenced by sudden economic shock in globalization but also demonstrates the complexity and multiplicity of urban shrinkage that emerged in the rapidly urbanizing area of the Global South. • Shrinking cities in the exo-urbanization area represents a typical short-term pattern in the era of globalization. • Urban shrinkage tends to be more diverse and complex in the rapidly urbanizing area of the Global South. • Five typologies are classified in relation to both population and economic dimensions that intersect with the trajectories. • Growth and shrinkage is a nonlinear and non-homogeneous phenomenon closely related to multi-scale influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Shrinking cities tend to be less energy efficient than their growing counterparts. • Shrinking cities need to consider the environmental effects of shrinkage. • Urban compactness is negatively associated with residential CO 2 emissions. • Intra-city polycentricity is negatively correlated with gas-related CO 2 emissions. This paper analyzes the relationship between urban form, shrinking cities, and residential carbon emissions, based on information collected for prefectural-level and above Chinese cities for the years of 2005, 2010, and 2015. After controlling for a number of urban form and socioeconomic variables (e.g., size, compactness, and polycentricity), this paper pays attention to residential carbon emissions in 'shrinking cities', which have experienced population loss and are a recent urban phenomenon in China. Everything else being equal, shrinking cities tend to be associated with less energy efficient than their growing counterparts, suggesting that these cities may not only be 'battling' with shrinking populations and economies but also need to consider the environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]