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Assessing the impacts and drivers of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) is important for urban ecology and sustainability; however, a unified accounting standard for carbon intensity and research on the drivers and economic value of TCS changes are lacking. Here, urban expansion and TCS in the Yangtze River Delta were simulated based on Patch-generating Land Use Simulation and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs models; scenario simulation; Literature, Correction, Ratio, Verification carbon intensity measurement; and land use transfer matrix methods. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, urbanization and TCS loss accelerated, with 61.127% of TCS loss occurring in soil, and land conversion was prominent in riverine and coastal cities, mainly driven by the urban land occupation of cropland around suitable slopes, transportation arteries, and rivers. (2) From 2020 to 2030, urban land expansion and TCS loss varied under different scenarios; economic losses from the loss of the carbon sink value under cropland protection and ecological protection were USD 102.368 and 287.266 million lower, respectively, than under the baseline scenario. Even if urban expansion slows, the loss of TCS under global warming cannot be ignored. Considering the indirect impacts of urbanization, the failure to establish a regional development master plan based on ecosystem services may affect China's carbon targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies on future scenario simulations lacked research regarding the driving factors of changes in carbon storages within urban expansion, and the economic value accounting for changes in carbon storages. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China, and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that (1) Wuhan's urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km 2 and is expected to continuously expand to 1349-1945.01 km 2 by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12 × 10 6  t during 1980-2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15 × 10 6  t, 4.7 × 10 6  t and 4.05 × 10 6  t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as BS > CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

• Integrated assessment of carbon storage with land-use dynamics is a challenge. • Consequences of LULC changes were modelled. • Results indicate ecological priority scenario could increase carbon storage. • Carbon storage was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. • Ecological restoration could increase carbon sequestration to mitigate carbon loss. Understanding the impacts of large-scale anthropogenic drivers on spatiotemporal processes in carbon storage through land-use patterns is a growing issue for the assessment of terrestrial ecosystems. However, an integrated assessment of changes in carbon storage, entailing complex land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics, remains a challenge. This study assessed the consequences of LULC changes on regional carbon storage in the Loess Plateau from 1995 to 2050 by integrating spatially explicit LULC and carbon models using multi-source data and typical scenarios. A Markov-CA model was used to model past LULC dynamics, which was followed by future projections under different LULC scenarios. Each scenario represented different socio-economic trajectories, including historical trend, ecological priority, and urban priority. The integrated valuation of the ecosystem service and tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon storage model and statistical methods were then used to assess spatiotemporal changes in the regional carbon storage associated with LULC dynamics. The results indicated that the ecological priority scenario could increase carbon storage by 11.36 Pg between 2015 and 2050. This is due to an increase in the carbon storage capacity in grasslands, shrub forest, and evergreen coniferous forest, indicating that ecological restoration could increase carbon sequestration. This mitigates the carbon loss caused by the rapid expansion of built-up land and fluctuations in cropland, which often takes place in the urban priority and historical trend scenarios. In favor of targeting the northwestern and central regions with socioeconomic benefits, grasslands and forests should be further promoted in the Loess Plateau. The findings will help implement long-term carbon sequestration strategies for ecosystem conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]