1. Changing Geographic Patterns and Risk Factors for Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Infections in Humans, China.
- Author
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Artois, Jean, Hui Jiang, Xiling Wang, Ying Qin, Pearcy, Morgan, Shengjie Lai, Yujing Shi, Juanjuan Zhang, Zhibin Peng, Jiandong Zheng, Yangni He, Dhingra, Madhur S., von Dobschuetz, Sophie, Fusheng Guo, Martin, Vincent, Kalpravidh, Wantanee, Claes, Filip, Robinson, Timothy, Hay, Simon I., and Xiangming Xiao
- Subjects
AVIAN influenza A virus ,H7N9 Influenza ,AVIAN influenza ,VIRUS diseases in poultry ,ZOONOSES ,EPIDEMICS ,SEASONAL influenza ,POULTRY diseases ,INFLUENZA epidemiology ,INFLUENZA A virus ,BIOTIC communities ,DEMOGRAPHY ,INFLUENZA ,POULTRY ,RESEARCH funding ,SEASONS ,VIRUSES ,PHYSIOLOGY - Abstract
The fifth epidemic wave of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China during 2016-2017 demonstrated a geographic range expansion and caused more human cases than any previous wave. The factors that may explain the recent range expansion and surge in incidence remain unknown. We investigated the effect of anthropogenic, poultry, and wetland variables on all epidemic waves. Poultry predictor variables became much more important in the last 2 epidemic waves than they were previously, supporting the assumption of much wider H7N9 transmission in the chicken reservoir. We show that the future range expansion of H7N9 to northern China may increase the risk of H7N9 epidemic peaks coinciding in time and space with those of seasonal influenza, leading to a higher risk of reassortments than before, although the risk is still low so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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