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A dynamic model for refrigerators' stock and replacement is proposed to analyze the evolution of refrigerators' stock efficiency in Colombia. The model simulates changes on energy consumption of refrigerators' stock as inefficient refrigerators are replaced at their end of life, and also voluntarily, as a result of energy efficiency strategies. Replacement rates are estimated using a diffusion model, while a discrete choice model that considers upfront and use costs is used to represent impact of energy efficiency on consumers' decisions. The proposed model is useful for ex-ante policy analysis and design. Results from the base case scenario indicate that the current energy efficiency policy achieves a 75% penetration of high-efficiency refrigerators by 2032. The replacement of inefficient refrigerators can be accelerated by increasing access to credit to consumers; a 25% increase in households with access to credit increases voluntary replacements by 16%. Other financial incentives, such as price discounts and lower financial rates, also increase voluntary replacements, although at lower rates. To maximize the energy efficiency gains of refrigerators' substitution, higher energy standards and removal and scrapping of old refrigerators are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mining represents an important economic sector in almost all countries, especially the developing ones. The planning in this area is complex due to the interaction between different aspects like economic factors, environmental and social issues, and government regulation. A tool for policy analysis is needed to understand and test the effects of new and existing policies and avoid unanticipated side effects. The article develops a generic model for analyzing the mining sector of a country and demonstrates how it can be calibrated to test a set of alternative scenarios for the future of mining in Colombia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings contribute to about 40% of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and more than a third of energy consumption globally. Sustainable building standards and efficiency standards are two measures to reduce such emissions and energy consumption in buildings. While better standards improve the sustainability of new buildings, the impact of these actions depends on the ability to improve the existing building stock. Understanding the dynamics of adopting efficiency and sustainable building measures is essential for setting policy targets and mechanisms. This paper proposes a system dynamics model for assessing the energy savings potential from adopting sustainable building and energy efficiency measurements in buildings in systems with incomplete and uncertain information, using prospective scenarios. The model combines a dynamic diffusion model with an aggregate model for the building stock. The model is calibrated for estimating energy savings in the residential and commercial building stock of the four main metropolitan areas of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, and Barranquilla. Simulation results show that the maximum energy savings potential is approximately 12% but could be below 8% if rebound effects are considered. Results show that energy savings are limited if there are no policies for existing old buildings. [Display omitted] • We developed a system dynamics model for adoption of sustainable buildings standards. • The model estimates the potential energy savings at the city level. • We used the model for testing different scenarios in four Colombian cities. • Current Colombian standards should be extended to consider an old-buildings policy. • Colombian policies require city-specific incentives and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]