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Ecosystems are being modified by a multiplicity of interacting natural and anthropogenic factors. The most important of these factors include changes in land use, changes in climate, and alterations of disturbance regimes. Many studies have considered these factors separately; however, these factors do not act in isolation, but rather interact to affect ecosystem structure and function. In the present study, we analyzed the interacting effects of abandonment of agricultural practices, increases in temperature, and anthropogenic suppression of the avalanche regime on landscape forest structure (percent canopy cover) in the Davos region of the Swiss Alps over the past 45 years. Compared to 1954, the Davos region is now characterized by greater forest cover and lower landscape heterogeneity. The greatest increases in forest structural stage occurred in areas in which land use changed from agricultural to non-agricultural, that were the closest to formerly active avalanche tracks, and in which the percentage change in number of growing degree days (GDD) was high. Change in land use was the most important variable contributing to changes in landscape forest structure, followed by changes in the disturbance regime, then changes in GDD. There also exist clear interactions among these variables, which indicate, for example, that the effects of the suppression of disturbances and changes in climate are contingent on the more immediate effects of changes in land use. Understanding the relative importance of, and interactions among, changes in land use, climate, and disturbances can contribute to an improved understanding of ecosystem dynamics and to better management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem service (ES) mapping has been developed with the aim of supporting ecosystem management, but ES maps often lack information about uncertainty and risk, which is essential for decision-making. In this paper, we use a risk-based approach to map ES in mountain forests, which are experiencing an increasing rate of natural disturbances, such as windthrow, bark beetle outbreaks, and forest fires. These disturbances affect the capacity of forests to provide essential ecosystem services, such as protection from natural hazards, wood production, and carbon sequestration, thus posing a challenge for forest management. At the same time, disturbances may also have a positive effect on certain services, e.g. by improving habitats for species that rely on dead wood. We integrate forests' susceptibility to natural disturbances into probabilistic Bayesian Network models of a set of ES (avalanche protection, carbon sequestration, recreation, habitats, and wood production), which combine information from remote sensing, social media and in-situ data, existing process-based models, and local expert knowledge. We use these models to map the level of the services and the associated uncertainties under scenarios with and without natural disturbances in two case study areas in the Swiss Alps. We use clustering to identify bundles of risk to ES, and compare the patterns of risk between the non-protected area of Davos and the strictly protected area of the Swiss National park with its surroundings. The spatially heterogeneous pattern of risk to ES reflects topographic variability and the forest characteristics that drive disturbance susceptibility, but also the demand for ecosystem services. In the landscape of Davos, the most relevant risks to ES are related to decreases in the protection against avalanches and carbon sequestration, as well as some risk to wood production and recreation. In the strictly protected Swiss National Park, the overall level of ES risk is lower, with an increase in habitat quality under the disturbance scenario. This risk-based approach can help identify stands with high levels of ES that are particularly susceptible to disturbances, as well as forests with a more stable ES provision, which can help define priorities in forest management planning. • Mountain forest ecosystem services are at risk due to natural disturbances. • We map risks to ecosystem services in (non)protected areas in the Swiss Alps. • Disturbances have spatially heterogeneous effects on ecosystem services. • The spatial pattern of risk is influenced by demand for ecosystem services. • Risk to ecosystem services is lower in a strictly protected area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “ Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]