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Iteroparity is an adaptive response to uncertainty in reproductive success. However, spreading reproductive success over multiple reproduction events during a lifetime is constrained by adult mortality and the stochasticity associated with interactions between external factors and physiological states. The acquisition of information about environmental conditions during the growth of progeny and sufficient resources during the non-reproductive period are key factors for breeding success. Consequently, we hypothesized that long-lived animals may skip a breeding opportunity when information about unfavourable environmental conditions is available. In addition, nutritional constraints could prevent an animal from replenishing its reserves sufficiently to invest in the current breeding period. We investigated these questions using capture-recapture data from a 5-year study on a large population of yellow-bellied toads in a forest in north-eastern France. We took advantage of various advances in multi-state capture-recapture models (e.g. unobservable states and mixture models) to test our hypotheses. Our results show that the combined effects of rainfall deficit and the breeding/non-breeding state of individuals during the past breeding season affect breeding probability during the following breeding opportunity. We also found that females breed less frequently than males, suggesting that the overall energy cost of reproduction differs between genders. Finally, the results indicate that toad survival appears to be negatively influenced by rainfall deficits. We discuss the yellow-bellied toad's reproductive behaviour in term of bet-hedging strategy and life history trait evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Snakes are more vulnerable to extinction than many other taxa. Additionally, their secretive behaviour makes it difficult to acquire the baseline ecological knowledge required to reliably evaluate extinction risks. Consequently, the conservation status of snakes has only been assessed for small populations; reliable methods for large-scale evaluation remain to be tested. In this study, we explored how habitat-suitability models ( HSMs) could be used to provide relevant information to help assess extinction risks and formulate appropriate conservation strategies for the Orsini's viper ( Vipera ursinii), a rare, endangered snake species. Location Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region in south-eastern France ( c. 30,000 km²). Methods We developed a high-resolution HSM (50 × 50 m) using a large sample of species presence data and nine climatic and land cover predictors. We used this model to predict the potential distribution of the Orsini's viper as well as to investigate the main environmental drivers explaining this distribution. We also assessed the geographical barriers between local populations and tested whether forest cutting would reduce fragmentation. Results The occurrence of the Orsini's viper was strongly correlated with the annual cumulative temperature and with vegetation cover type. The total extent of suitable habitat covered 2.98% of the study area and was highly fragmented into 1417 distinct areas. Among these areas of suitable habitat, 21 were confirmed to have the species. These represented 22,134 ha and a potential carrying capacity of 168,000 individuals. Main conclusions Our HSM was consistent with the past assessment of the distribution of the Orsini's viper. Our HSM represents a sound benchmark for the distribution of the species and can provide a powerful tool to help with the search of new populations, the identification of areas for habitat restoration, the test conservation strategies and effects of climate change. We found that forest cutting may lead to reconnect close isolated areas of suitable habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]