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Ecuador, a country with distinct coastal (CO), highland (HL), and Amazon (AM) regions that are characterized by unique climatic, ecological, and socio-economic features is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on these three regions, highlighting their individual importance in the broader context of Ecuador's climate vulnerability. Utilizing dynamically downscaled data from the Regional Climate Model (RCM), we generated precipitation and air temperature projections for the period 2070-2099 under three different climate change scenarios. We indicate projected temperature increases across all three regions: mean temperature increases for the CO, HL and AM regions are of 1.35, 1.55, and 1.21°C, respectively. Each year, the largest temperature increases are predicted for the third quarter (June-August), with the smallest increases predicted for the last quarter (December-February). Precipitation patterns show varied changes, with CO exhibiting a positive mean daily change, in contrast to a mean negative change in the AM region. These region-specific projections underscore the differential impacts of climate change within Ecuador and highlight the necessity for tailored adaptation measures. The study's novel approach, focusing on distinct regional impacts within a single nation, offers valuable insights for policymakers, aiding in the development of effective, region-specific climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This targeted approach is crucial to address unique challenges faced by different regions, thereby supporting national resilience strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world's population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate Kobayashi's 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador's two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to −67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (−36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) can become a tremendous burden to national economies; however, few studies have quantified the economic impacts of IAS, particularly for developing nations. The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck), was introduced into Ecuador in 2005. By 2012, the snail had affected 94% of Ecuador's rice-growing areas. We used government surveys of rice production and snail distributions, as well as yearly production costs and rice prices, to estimate snail-associated losses to rice productivity and profitability between 2005 and 2015 – the first decade of P. canaliculata in Ecuador. Based on the intensity of the invasion and changing management practices, we estimate that the golden apple snail caused accumulated losses of 35.65 K tons of rice grain (worth US$23.10 M) with further productivity losses (lost inputs and labour) of US$9.61 M (total = US$32.71 M), until 2015. Based on survey information, we estimate that 90% of affected fields were treated with pesticides during the 5 years following initial establishment of the snail on individual rice farms. Pesticides potentially saved up to $10 M in damage during peak snail densities in 2012. By 2015, prophylactic molluscicide treatments were costing the nation US$15.24 M annually (including application costs: accumulated 10-year cost = $123.46 M, assuming 90% coverage). Increasing pesticide and labour costs, but relatively stable farm-gate rice prices, suggest that the continued chemical control of golden apple snail in Ecuador is economically unsustainable. We discuss possible alternatives to prophylactic molluscicide applications that can increase the economic and environmental sustainability of rice production in the face of high densities of apple snails during post-introduction outbreaks. We suggest that nations at high risk from invasive apple snails (e.g., Bangladesh, India, Colombia and Peru) could avoid substantial losses by pre-emptively researching and adopting mechanized crop establishment practices that not only reduce labour costs, but also prevent potential damage from apple snails to rice. • Pomacea canaliculata , introduced in 2005, affected 94% of Ecuador's rice production by 2012. • We estimated snail-associated productivity losses and management costs between 2005 and 2015. • By 2015, snails reduced national yields by ≈ 36 K tons after management costs of > US$100 M. • Increasing application costs, but relatively stable rice prices suggest that chemical control is unsustainable. • We recommend mechanized transplanting or broadcasting of robust rice seedlings for countries at risk from apple snails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]