1. Modeling insights into Haemophilus influenzae type b disease, transmission, and vaccine programs.
- Author
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Jackson ML, Rose CE, Cohn A, Coronado F, Clark TA, Wenger JD, Bulkow L, Bruce MG, Messonnier NE, and Hennessy TW
- Subjects
- Child, Child, Preschool, England epidemiology, Haemophilus Infections epidemiology, Haemophilus Infections microbiology, Haemophilus Vaccines supply & distribution, Humans, Immunity, Herd, Incidence, Indians, North American, Infant, Time Factors, United States epidemiology, Wales epidemiology, Haemophilus Infections prevention & control, Haemophilus Vaccines immunology, Haemophilus influenzae type b immunology, Haemophilus influenzae type b physiology, Models, Biological
- Abstract
In response to the 2007-2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age.
- Published
- 2012
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