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Objectives: There have been claims that Delayed Transfers of Care (DTOCs) of inpatients to home or a less acute setting are related to Emergency Department (ED) crowding. In particular DTOCs were associated with breaches of the UK 4-hour waiting time target in a previously published analysis. However, the analysis has major limitations by not adjusting for the longitudinal trend of the data. The aim of this work is to investigate whether the proposition that DTOCs impact the 4-hour target requires further research., Method: Estimation of an association between two or more variables that are measured over time requires specialised statistical methods. In this study, we performed two separate analyses. First, we created two sets of artificial data with no correlation. We then added an upward trend over time and again assessed for correlation. Second, we reproduced the simple linear regression of the original study using NHS England open data of English trusts between 2010 and 2016, assessing correlation of numbers of DTOCs and ED breaches of the 4-hour target. We then reanalysed the same data using standard time series methods to remove the trend before estimating an association., Results: After introducing upward trends into the uncorrelated artificial data the correlation between the two data sets increased (R 2 =0.00 to 0.51 respectively). We found strong evidence of longitudinal trends within the NHS data of ED breaches and DTOCs. After removal of the trends the R 2 reduced from 0.50 to 0.01., Conclusion: Our reanalysis found weak correlation between numbers of DTOCs and ED 4-hour target breaches. Our study does not indicate that there is no relationship between 4-hour target and DTOCs, it highlights that statistically robust evidence for this relationship does not currently exist. Further work is required to understand the relationship between breaches of the 4-hour target and numbers of DTOCs., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To quantify the effect of intrahospital patient flow on emergency department (ED) performance targets and indicate if the expectations set by the National Health Service (NHS) England 5-year forward review are realistic in returning emergency services to previous performance levels., Design: Linear regression analysis of routinely reported trust activity and performance data using a series of cross-sectional studies., Setting: NHS trusts in England submitting routine nationally reported measures to NHS England., Participants: 142 acute non-specialist trusts operating in England between 2012 and 2016., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome measures were proportion of 4-hour waiting time breaches and cancelled elective operations., Methods: Univariate and multivariate linear regression models were used to show relationships between the outcome measures and various measures of trust activity including empty day beds, empty night beds, day bed to night bed ratio, ED conversion ratio and delayed transfers of care., Results: Univariate regression results using the outcome of 4-hour breaches showed clear relationships with empty night beds and ED conversion ratio between 2012 and 2016. The day bed to night bed ratio showed an increasing ability to explain variation in performance between 2015 and 2016. Delayed transfers of care showed little evidence of an association. Multivariate model results indicated that the ability of patient flow variables to explain 4-hour target performance had reduced between 2012 and 2016 (19% to 12%), and had increased in explaining cancelled elective operations (7% to 17%)., Conclusions: The flow of patients through trusts is shown to influence ED performance; however, performance has become less explainable by intratrust patient flow between 2012 and 2016. Some commonly stated explanatory factors such as delayed transfers of care showed limited evidence of being related. The results indicate some of the measures proposed by NHS England to reduce pressure on EDs may not have the desired impact on returning services to previous performance levels., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objective: To assess whether weekend admissions to hospital and/or already being an inpatient on weekend days were associated with any additional mortality risk., Design: Retrospective observational survivorship study. We analysed all admissions to the English National Health Service (NHS) during the financial year 2009/10, following up all patients for 30 days after admission and accounting for risk of death associated with diagnosis, co-morbidities, admission history, age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, seasonality, day of admission and hospital trust, including day of death as a time dependent covariate. The principal analysis was based on time to in-hospital death., Participants: National Health Service Hospitals in England., Main Outcome Measures: 30 day mortality (in or out of hospital)., Results: There were 14,217,640 admissions included in the principal analysis, with 187,337 in-hospital deaths reported within 30 days of admission. Admission on weekend days was associated with a considerable increase in risk of subsequent death compared with admission on weekdays, hazard ratio for Sunday versus Wednesday 1.16 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.18; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 1.11 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.13; P < .0001). Hospital stays on weekend days were associated with a lower risk of death than midweek days, hazard ratio for being in hospital on Sunday versus Wednesday 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.94; P < .0001), and for Saturday versus Wednesday 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.96; P < .0001). Similar findings were observed on a smaller US data set., Conclusions: Admission at the weekend is associated with increased risk of subsequent death within 30 days of admission. The likelihood of death actually occurring is less on a weekend day than on a mid-week day.

Objective: To assess the effects of social deprivation on survival after cardiac surgery and to examine the influence of potentially modifiable risk factors., Design: Analysis of prospectively collected data. Prognostic models used to examine the additional effect of social deprivation on the end points., Setting: Birmingham and north west England., Participants: 44 902 adults undergoing cardiac surgery, 1997-2007., Main Outcome Measures: Social deprivation with census based 2001 Carstairs scores. All cause mortality in hospital and at mid-term follow-up., Results: In hospital mortality for all cardiac procedures was 3.25% and mid-term follow-up (median 1887 days; range 1180-2725 days) mortality was 12.4%. Multivariable analysis identified social deprivation as an independent predictor of mid-term mortality (hazard ratio 1.024, 95% confidence interval 1.015 to 1.033; P<0.001). Smoking (P<0.001), body mass index (BMI, P<0.001), and diabetes (P<0.001) were associated with social deprivation. Smoking at time of surgery (1.294, 1.191 to 1.407, P<0.001) and diabetes (1.305, 1.217 to 1.399, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mid-term mortality. The relation between BMI and mid-term mortality was non-linear and risks were higher in the extremes of BMI (P<0.001). Adjustment for smoking, BMI, and diabetes reduced but did not eliminate the effects of social deprivation on mid-term mortality (1.017, 1.007 to 1.026, P<0.001)., Conclusions: Smoking, extremes of BMI, and diabetes, which are potentially modifiable risk factors associated with social deprivation, are responsible for a significant reduction in survival after surgery, but even after adjustment for these variables social deprivation remains a significant independent predictor of increased risk of mortality.

Objectives: To study changes in coronary artery surgery practice in the years spanning publication of cardiac surgery mortality data in the UK., Methods: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from all National Health Service centres undertaking adult cardiac surgery in northwest England was carried out. Patients undergoing coronary artery surgery for the first time between April 1997 and March 2005 were included. Changes in observed, predicted and risk adjusted mortality (EuroSCORE) were studied. Evidence of risk-averse behaviour was looked for by examining the number of patients at low risk (EuroSCORE 0-5), high risk (6-10), and very high risk (11 or more), before and after public disclosure., Results: 25,730 patients underwent coronary artery surgery during the study period. The observed mortality decreased from 2.4% in 1997-8 to 1.8% in 2004-5 (p = 0.014). The expected mortality (EuroSCORE) increased from 3.0 to 3.5 (p<0.001). The observed to expected mortality ratio decreased from 0.8 to 0.51 (p<0.05). The total number and percentage of patients who were at low risk, high risk and very high risk was 2694 (84.6%), 449 (14.1%) and 41 (1.3%) before and 2654 (81.7%), 547 (16.8%) and 47 (1.4%) after public disclosure, respectively, demonstrating a significant increase in the number and proportion of high risk patients undergoing surgery (p<0.001)., Conclusions: Publication of cardiac surgery mortality data in the UK has been associated with decreased risk adjusted mortality on retrospective analysis of a large patient database. There is no evidence that fewer high risk patients are undergoing surgery because mortality rates are published.

Introduction: This report describes the case mix, outcome and activity (duration of intensive care unit [ICU] and hospital stay, inter-hospital transfer, and readmissions to the ICU) for admissions to ICUs for acute severe asthma, and investigates the effect of case mix factors on outcome., Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a high-quality clinical database (the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre [ICNARC] Case Mix Programme Database) of 129,647 admissions to 128 adult, general critical care units across England, Wales and Northern Ireland over the period 1995-2001., Results: Asthma accounted for 2152 (1.7%) admissions, and in 57% mechanical ventilation was employed during the first 24 hours in the ICU. A total of 147 (7.1%) patients died in intensive care and 199 (9.8%) died before discharge from hospital. The mean age was 43.6 years, and the ratio of women to men was 2:1. Median length of stay was 1.5 days in the ICU and 8 days in hospital. Older age, female sex, having received cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) within 24 hours before admission, having suffered a neurological insult during the first 24 hours in the ICU, higher heart rate, and hypercapnia were associated with greater risk for in-hospital death after adjusting for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. CPR before admission, neurological insult, hypoxaemia and hypercapnia were associated with receipt of mechanical ventilation after adjusting for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score., Conclusion: ICU admission for asthma is relatively uncommon but remains associated with appreciable in-hospital mortality. The greatest determinant of poor hospital survival in asthma patients was receipt of CPR within 24 hours before admission to ICU. Clinical management of these patients should be directed at preventing cardiac arrest before admission.