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The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system. Different recurring changes in precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed in the Chew Bahir basin could result in similar (but not identical) conditions in the lake (e.g., depth and area of the lake, alkalinity and salinity of the lake water, species assemblages in the water body, and diagenesis in the sediments). Recurrence plots (RPs) are graphic displays of such recurring states within a system. Measures of complexity were subsequently introduced to complement the visual inspection of recurrence plots, and provide quantitative descriptions for use in recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). We present and discuss herein results from an RQA on the environmental record from six short (< 17 m) sediment cores collected during the CBDP, spanning the last 45 kyrs. The different types of variability and transitions in these records were classified to improve our understanding of the response of the biosphere to climate change, and especially the response of humans in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: East African paleoenvironments are highly variable, marked by extreme fluctuations in moisture availability, which has far-reaching implications for the origin, evolution and dispersal of Homo sapiens in and beyond the region. This paper presents results from a pilot core from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia that records the climatic history of the past 45 ka, with emphasis on the African Humid Period (AHP, ∼15–5 ka calBP). Geochemical, physical and biological indicators show that Chew Bahir responded to climatic fluctuations on millennial to centennial timescales, and to the precessional cycle, since the Last Glacial Maximum. Potassium content of the sediment appears to be a reliable proxy for aridity, showing that Chew Bahir reacted to the insolation-controlled humidity increase of the AHP with a remarkably abrupt onset and a gradual termination, framing a sharply defined arid phase (∼12.8–11.6 ka calBP) corresponding to the Younger Dryas chronozone. The Chew Bahir record correlates well with low- and high-latitude paleoclimate records, demonstrating that the site responded to regional and global climate changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Six sites in Ethiopia and Kenya, all adjacent to key paleoanthropological sites have been investigated as part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP), aiming at an enhanced understanding of climatic influences on human physical and cultural evolution. The recovered sediment cores from the six sites all together span the last ~3.5 Ma. The sediment core records archive environmental change during diverse milestones in human evolution, and times of dispersal and technological and cultural innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir lacustrine record, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, covers the past ~600 ka of environmental history, a time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. Developing a continuous climate history based on sediment core composition is not straightforward because on one hand some indicators might only be preserved intermittently and on the other hand the physical and chemical properties of the sedimentary deposits do not have a linear relationship to climate. Here we present the first outcome of our ongoing work on deciphering direct paleoenvironmental information from authigenic mineral transformations in the long (~280 m) Chew Bahir sediment cores. First results suggest mineralogical and geochemical indicators record wet, dry and hyper-arid climate intervals. Preliminary work suggests that the most extreme evaporative phases are represented by authigenic mineral assemblages including Mg-enriched clays, low-temperature authigenic illite and euhedral analcime. SEM and Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS) analyses confirm that the variations in the analcime abundance that are evident in the XRD dataset seem to be distinctly formed deltoidal icositetrahedrons. These are known to form in highly saline and alkaline brines (pH 9 and higher) and can be associated with pronounced arid phases. Understanding and determining the degree of authigenic mineral alteration in the Chew Bahir records will enable interpretation of µXRF-derived indicators (e.g. K correlated with aridity), and provide direct paleohydrologic data. Together with a well-constrained age-model, our growing understanding of site-specific proxy formation and the establishment of climate proxies for Chew Bahir will provide a robust environmental history on decadal to orbital timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we convert variabilities and trends in hundreds of potential parameters that are typically analyzed in the framework of a scientific drilling project to actual climate proxies? Using the case study from the Chew Bahir core from the southern Ethiopian Rift, we will show that deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, because of the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Establishing a reliable climate proxy for a new terrestrial archive requires the stepwise development of a profound understanding of both climate-controlled and non-climate controlled processes in the catchment. As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions the Chew Bahir Drilling Project, as part of HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project) recovered 280 m-long sediment records from a deep, tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014. The Chew Bahir record covers the past ~600 ka of environmental history, a critical time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. By deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological processes and geochemical parameters and strongly climate-controlled processes in the Chew Bahir basin, such as weathering (incongruent dissolution), transportation and authigenic mineral alteration, site-specific indicators for climate shifts on different magnitudes are being developed to eventually provide a detailed and reliable climate record. This study uses a multi indicator approach including whole rock and clay mineral analyses (XRD), XRF geochemistry and sedimentology such as grain size analysis. We will illustrate how sensitively the degree of authigenic transformation in especially clay minerals and zeolites has recorded even subtle shifts in the hydrochemistry of paleolake and porewaters, thereby representing a robust tool for differentiating contrasting chemical environments controlled by climatic change. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation, will give us a continuous record of environmental history on decadal to orbital timescales. Our data enable us to test current hypotheses of the impact of a variety of climate shifts on human evolution and dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has undergone tremendous climatic changes, from dry and relatively cold during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25–18 ka) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15–5 ka), and back to present-day dry conditions. As a contribution to better understand the effects of climate change on vegetation and lakes, we here present a new Predictive Vegetation Model that is linked with a Lake Balance Model and available vegetation-proxy records from southern Ethiopia including a new phytolith record from the Chew Bahir basin. We constructed a detailed paleo-landcover map of southern Ethiopia during the LGM, AHP (with and without influence of the Congo Air Boundary) and the modern-day potential natural landcover. Compared to today, we observe a 15–20% reduction in moisture availability during the LGM with widespread open landscapes and only few remaining forest refugia. We identify 25–40% increased moisture availability during the AHP with prevailing forests in the mid-altitudes and indications that modern anthropogenic landcover change has affected the water balance. In comparison with existing archaeological records, we find that human occupations tend to correspond with open landscapes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in southern Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite eastern Africa being a key location in the emergence of Homo sapiens and their subsequent dispersal out of Africa, there is a paucity of long, well-dated climate records in the region to contextualize this history. To address this issue, we dated a ∼293 m long composite sediment core from Chew Bahir, south Ethiopia, using three independent chronometers (radiocarbon, 40Ar/39Ar, and optically stimulated luminescence) combined with geochemical correlation to a known-age tephra. The site is located in a climatically sensitive region, and is close to Omo Kibish, the earliest documented Homo sapiens fossil site in eastern Africa, and to the proposed dispersal routes for H. sapiens out of Africa. The 30 ages generated by the various techniques are internally consistent, stratigraphically coherent, and span the full range of the core depth. A Bayesian age-depth model developed using these ages results in a chronology that forms one of the longest independently dated, high-resolution lacustrine sediment records from eastern Africa. The chronology illustrates that any record of environmental change preserved in the composite sediment core from Chew Bahir would span the entire timescale of modern human evolution and dispersal, encompassing the time period of the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA), and subsequently to Later Stone Age (LSA) technology, making the core well-placed to address questions regarding environmental change and hominin evolutionary adaptation. The benefits to such studies of direct dating and the use of multiple independent chronometers are discussed. • Four independent dating methods applied to ∼293 m lake core from southern Ethiopia. • Reveals 620 ka high-resolution sedimentary record near key fossil hominin sites. • Mean accumulation rate of 0.47 mm/a comparable to other African lacustrine sediments. • Accumulation rate fell to 0.1 mm/a during MIS 2, likely due to reduced sediment supply. • Use of multiple independent chronometers is a powerful approach in lake settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and hominin evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin (CHB). In this statistical project we used recurrence plots (RPs) together with a recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to distinguish two types of variability and transitions in the Chew Bahir aridity record and compare them with the ODP Site 967 wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean. The first type of variability is one of slow variations with cycles of ∼20 kyr, reminiscent of the Earth's precession cycle, and subharmonics of this orbital cycle. In addition to these cyclical wet-dry fluctuations in the area, extreme events often occur, i.e. short wet or dry episodes, lasting for several centuries or even millennia, and rapid transitions between these wet and dry episodes. The second type of variability is characterized by relatively low variation on orbital time scales, but significant century-millennium-scale variations with progressively increasing frequencies. Within this type of variability there are extremely fast transitions between dry and wet within a few decades or years, in contrast to those within Type 1 with transitions over several hundreds of years. Type 1 variability probably reflects the influence of precessional forcing in the lower latitudes at times with maximum values of the long (400 kyr) eccentricity cycle of the Earth's orbit around the sun, with the tendency towards extreme events. Type 2 variability seems to be linked with minimum values of this cycle. There does not seem to be a systematic correlation between Type 1 or Type 2 variability with atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The different types of variability and the transitions between those types had important effects on the availability of water, and could have transformed eastern Africa's environment considerably, which would have had important implications for the shaping of the habitat of H. sapiens and the direct ancestors of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many Plio-Pleistocene lake basins in eastern Africa associated with early hominins contained waters that were alkaline, enriched in silica due to weathering of volcaniclastics and hydrothermal activity, and evaporatively concentrated. Such conditions are favorable for the formation of silicate minerals precipitated from solution, or neoformed through alteration of detrital parent material. The most common authigenic silicates thus produced include the zeolite family of minerals and a number of clay minerals, particularly 2:1 clays of the illite and smectite families. Particularly in the absence of well-preserved paleoecological records, these minerals may provide important evidence of paleoenvironmental conditions. Stratigraphic variations in lacustrine authigenic silicates can give an indication of changes in cation proportions in paleolake waters over time. For example, in Pliocene deposits of the Baringo Basin, Kenya, fluctuations between phillipsite (K-rich) and analcime (Na-rich) facies suggest changing salinity levels because more saline waters have greater Na/K ratios. In one interval in the Chemeron Formation, analcimic muds are interbedded with freshwater diatomites, suggesting a link between high amplitude of environmental variability and peak orbital eccentricity ~2.6 Ma. In the Lake Magadi basin in southern Kenya, marked increases in zeolite abundance and greater dominance of Na-rich phases indicate hydrological closure and enhanced evaporative concentration suggesting a long-term increase in aridity accelerating ~380 ka. In short cores of the Chew Bahir basin of southern Ethiopia, greater analcime abundances and incipient low-temperature illitization of smectite (indicating greater K uptake in more saline waters) are associated with Late Pleistocene arid episodes such as the Younger Dryas. In the Olduvai Basin of northern Tanzania, fluctuations in the Al/Mg ratio of authigenic clay minerals record changes in salinity, as greater Mg is incorporated into clays during saline episodes. These clay mineral changes are accompanied by shifts in the oxygen isotope composition of structural oxygen, indicating equilibrium with variably saline waters. Both elemental and isotopic changes fluctuate over precessional timescales, suggesting orbital control of hydrologic balance ~1.8 Ma.Authigenic silicates can be an important source of paleolimnological data, particularly over the range of salinities between the relatively freshwater conditions under which biological proxies readily accumulate, and the extreme salinities associated with evaporites such as halite and trona (Na-carbonate). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kenyan and Ethiopian rifts in eastern Africa are known for their diverse landscape, ranging from arid and semi-arid savannahs to high and lush mountainous regions, where anatomically modern humans were present since ~195 ka BP. Lacustrine sediments and paleo-shorelines indicate water availability fluctuated dramatically during this period from deep fresh water lakes, to shallow highly alkaline lakes, to completely desiccated lakes. To investigate the role lakes have played through time as readily available water sources to humans, an enhanced knowledge of the pace as well as the magnitude of these changes near key paleo-anthropological sites in eastern Africa is essential. Hydro-balance models are used to calculate paleo-precipitation rates and the potential pace of lake level changes. Such models, which were successfully applied to numerous lake basins in Kenya, could prove similarly useful for investigating paleo-lake basins in Ethiopia. However, these models did not consider changes in hydrological connectivity during humid periods, which may have led to an overestimation of paleo-precipitation rates. Here we present a comprehensive hydro-balance modelling approach that simulates multiple rift lakes from the southern Ethiopian Rift (Abaya, Chamo, Chew Bahir) simultaneously, considering their temporal hydrological connectivity. During the high stand at the peak of the African Humid Period (AHP, 15-5- ka), the lakes were hydrologically linked and display cascade-like behavior, flowing southwards from Abaya to Chamo to Chew Bahir and finally spilling over into Lake Turkana. We further used the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) to calculate the evaporation of Lake Chew Bashir's catchments and used the energy balance to determine possible paleo-evaporation conditions due to shifts in precipitation patterns. The results suggest an increase in the long-term precipitation trend of 20.6% to 28.6% throughout the whole Southern Ethiopian Rift is necessary to fill Lake Chew Bahir to its overflow level. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that Lake Chew Bahir was highly dependent on the water supply from the upper lakes Abaya and Chamo and dries out within ~30 years if the hydrological connection is cut off and the precipitation amount decreases to present day conditions. Several of such rapid lake level fluctuations, from a freshwater to a saline lake, might have occurred during the termination of the AHP, when humid conditions were less stable due to a change in precessional cycle. Fast changes in fresh water availability requires high adaptability for humans living in the area and might have caused strong migration pressure towards more favorable regions such as the Ethiopian Highlands within single generations or even less. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test hypothesized linkages between climate and human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation by the acquisition and analysis of long (~280 m) sediment cores that have recorded environmental change in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopia. In this time-series analysis project, we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake, and humans within the lake catchment. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system.We use methods of linear and nonlinear time series analysis, such as change point detection, semblance analysis and recurrence plots, to identify and classify recurring types of variability and transitions on the time scales of human life spans. For example, we investigate the rapidness of transitions, possible precursor events, and tipping points in our palaeoenvironmental data and discuss their possible impact on the living conditions of humans in the region. First results of the analysis show that we indeed find, as an example, recurring threshold-type transitions, when the Chew Bahir system switched from one stable mode to another, such as from stable wet to dry conditions. Such a rapid change of climate in response to a relatively modest change in forcing appears to be typical of tipping points in complex systems such as the Chew Bahir. If this is the case then the 14 dry events idenfified at the end of the African Humid Period (15–5 kyr BP) could represent precursors of an imminent tipping point that, if properly interpreted, would allow predictions to be made of future climate change in the Chew Bahir basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sediments of the Chew Bahir playa lake in southern Ethiopia were cored down to 280 m depth in the context of HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project) and CRC (Collaborative Research Center) 806 "Our way to Europe" projects. The main aim is to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions during the development of anatomically modern humans (AMH) and to test hypotheses about human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation. Based on several dating methods (14C, Ar/Ar, optical stimulated luminescence, chemical fingerprints of tephras) the composite core is shown to cover the last ~600 ka and therefore brackets the time period of important steps in cultural evolution, from Late Acheulean to Middle/Late Stone Age technologies, the origin of AMH, as well as the most recent "Out of Africa" human dispersal events. The multiproxy record of the composite core (e.g., chemical and physical sediment properties, stable C, O and Sr isotope ratios of carbonates, microfossil assemblages and biomarkers) indicates long- and short-time hydroclimatic changes mainly driven by orbital controlled insolation (mostly the Earth's precession ~15-25 ka, but also eccentricity ~90-120 ka). We compare our Chew Bahir data with results from other long marine and terrestrial paleoclimatic records. Here we focus on particularly strong wet and dry fluctuations at Chew Bahir during the last 200 ka to test established hypotheses for human dispersal and technological innovation. The record indicates that at least some of the human dispersal waves have taken place during wetter environmental conditions offering green corridors in East Africa, one of the source regions of our ancestors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cores from terrestrial archives, such as the lacustrine sediments from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia, which cover the last ~600 ka, often reflect both local, regional and global climate influences. In our analysis we were able to identify several time windows in which the Chew Bahir climate is in resonance with regional and global climate change.As a contribution to understanding and differentiating these connections recorded in the Chew Bahir sediments, we have correlated the 2nd principal component of the MSCL based color reflectance values representing wet conditions in the Chew Bahir basin, with the wetness index from ocean core ODP 967 from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The correlation between these two time series was calculated using the Spearman correlation coefficient in a sliding window. Episodes with high correlation between the two records of wetness could indicate a strong link between both regions, possibly through an increased outflow of the river Nile into the eastern Mediterranean Sea due to higher precipitation values on the Ethiopian plateau.Our preliminary results show that when correlating the two records, two distinct temporal units can be distinguished. Between ~570 ka and ~350 ka the correlation is dominated by cycles that correspond with orbital precession whereas the second unit (after 350 ka) reveals a strong influence of atmospheric CO2. This observation suggests that both orbital precession and atmospheric CO2. may cause a synchronization of different regions in the African climate system, possibly depending on boundary conditions which are still to be identified.As a next step we'll investigate the nonlinear relationships between the two records by focusing on the transition between the two main observed phases. The transition around ~350 kyrs however, is not only highly interesting from a climatic perspective, but it is also a noteworthy period for human cultural evolution as a transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) technologies takes place at this time. So far our results outline that during this climatically and evolutionary relevant episode a relatively stable, long-lasting, pan-African wet phase may have existed, with possible green corridors connecting the habitats of hominins, and ample resources supporting large population sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Episodes of environmental stability and instability may be equally important for African hominin speciation, dispersal, and cultural innovation. Three examples of a change from stable to unstable environmental conditions are presented on three different time scales: (1) the Mid Holocene (MH) wet-dry transition in the Chew Bahir basin (Southern Ethiopian Rift; between 11 ka and 4 ka), (2) the MIS 5-4 transition in the Naivasha basin (Central Kenya Rift; between 160 ka and 50 ka), and (3) the Early Mid Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) in the Olorgesailie basin (Southern Kenya Rift; between 1.25 Ma and 0.4 Ma). A probabilistic age modeling technique is used to determine the timing of these transitions, taking into account possible abrupt changes in the sedimentation rate including episodes of no deposition (hiatuses). Interestingly, the stable-unstable conditions identified in the three records are always associated with an orbitally-induced decrease of insolation: the descending portion of the 800 kyr cycle during the EMPT, declining eccentricity after the 115 ka maximum at the MIS 5-4 transition, and after ∼ 10 ka. This observation contributes to an evidence-based discussion of the possible mechanisms causing the switching between environmental stability and instability in Eastern Africa at three different orbital time scales (10,000 to 1,000,000 years) during the Cenozoic. This in turn may lead to great insights into the environmental changes occurring at the same time as hominin speciation, brain expansion, dispersal out of Africa, and cultural innovations and may provide key evidence to build new hypotheses regarding the causes of early human evolution., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)