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Abstract The lakes of the eastern Africa Rift often contain great thicknesses of sediment that may provide continuous records of environmental change over decadal to million-year timescales. However interpretation of these changes is greatly compromised without a reliable chronology. Luminescence dating has not been used extensively in lacustrine settings; instead previous studies have often relied upon radiocarbon dating, using extrapolation beyond the upper limit of that technique, and employing opportunistic sampling of tephra and palaeomagnetic signatures where possible. This study from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, demonstrates that recent advances in luminescence methodology can provide long chronologies for lake sediments that are not dependent on the intermittent presence of dateable material, as is the case for radiocarbon and tephra-based methods. Specifically, this study generates luminescence ages that agree with independent chronology based on radiocarbon dating in the upper part of the core, and extends significantly beyond the range of radiocarbon dating to provide one of the longest independently dated lacustrine sediment records in eastern Africa, thus demonstrating the tremendous potential of luminescence for constructing lacustrine sediment chronologies over 100,000 year timescales. Highlights • Recent advances make it timely to apply luminescence methods to date lake sediments. • Luminescence dating can provide long chronologies throughout lake sediment cores. • The application of luminescence dating to sediments from Lake Tana is discussed. • One of the longest independently dated lake records in eastern Africa. • Demonstrates the contribution luminescence dating can make to lacustrine studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rift lakes are perfect places for sediment accumulation and hence potentially contain continous paleoclimate records. Located in the eastern African rift valley, in southern Ethiopia, Lake Chew Bahir preserves a record of environmental change which is pertinent to the story of hominin evolution and dispersal. Independent chronology from various dating techniques is available throughout this 293 m composite core record, from which a coherent Bayesian age-depth model was generated spanning the last 620 ka and providing one of the longest directly-dated lacustrine sediment sequences in eastern Africa [1]. However, there are regions of the core where the age depth model could be improved if further datable materials were available. For instance, beyond ~50 m depth, the quartz OSL signal appears to be saturated and there is a large gap to the first 40Ar/39Ar age. The luminescence signal from feldspars saturates at a greater De value than that from quartz and therefore offers the potential to extend the maximum age range of the luminescence-derived chronology in the core, and to fill in gaps within the quartz-derived chronology where quartz is not available. The luminescence chronology for the Lake Chew Bahir core was refined and extended using the fading corrected post-IR IRSL225 signal from polymineral fine grains. However, there are challenges and complications regarding both assessment of fading and the subsequent application of the fading rates. The duration of the delay times used to assess fading, and the given laboratory dose (two critical factors in measurement of fading rates), were the same for all samples, but because of variability in lithology in the core, it is not clear whether sample specific fading rates should be used or if the mean fading rate of all samples is appropriate. Moreover, selection of the most appropriate fading correction model is critical. To circumvent the complications of fading rate measurement and its application, the recently developed post-Isothermal (pIt) IRSL protocol [2] was therefore also explored. Application of a modified pIt-IRSL225 protocol to polymineral fine grains from this core, demonstrates that this signal is successful in providing accurate ages for this material without any fading correction. Additionally, uncertainty on the derived ages were reduced in comparison with the fading corrected post-IR IRSL225 ages. However, since the calculated De from this protocol relies on the IR50/pIRIR225 De ratio, it seems to be limited to the saturation limit of the IR50 signal. This may be the reason that the pIt-IRSL225 age for one of the older samples in the core (~300 ka) does not agree with its fading corrected post-IR IRSL225 age. Possible modifications to the pIt-IRSL225 protocol to overcome this limitation will be discussed. Furthermore, the suitability of the isothermal annealing step in this protocol to account for the athermal process of signal loss (i.e. fading) was investigated. The data suggest there is a correlation between the isothermal annealing time (for which the De in the pIt- IRSL225 protocol is reached) and the g-values determined using IR50 and pIRIR225 signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite eastern Africa being a key location in the emergence of Homo sapiens and their subsequent dispersal out of Africa, there is a paucity of long, well-dated climate records in the region to contextualize this history. To address this issue, we dated a ∼293 m long composite sediment core from Chew Bahir, south Ethiopia, using three independent chronometers (radiocarbon, 40Ar/39Ar, and optically stimulated luminescence) combined with geochemical correlation to a known-age tephra. The site is located in a climatically sensitive region, and is close to Omo Kibish, the earliest documented Homo sapiens fossil site in eastern Africa, and to the proposed dispersal routes for H. sapiens out of Africa. The 30 ages generated by the various techniques are internally consistent, stratigraphically coherent, and span the full range of the core depth. A Bayesian age-depth model developed using these ages results in a chronology that forms one of the longest independently dated, high-resolution lacustrine sediment records from eastern Africa. The chronology illustrates that any record of environmental change preserved in the composite sediment core from Chew Bahir would span the entire timescale of modern human evolution and dispersal, encompassing the time period of the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA), and subsequently to Later Stone Age (LSA) technology, making the core well-placed to address questions regarding environmental change and hominin evolutionary adaptation. The benefits to such studies of direct dating and the use of multiple independent chronometers are discussed. • Four independent dating methods applied to ∼293 m lake core from southern Ethiopia. • Reveals 620 ka high-resolution sedimentary record near key fossil hominin sites. • Mean accumulation rate of 0.47 mm/a comparable to other African lacustrine sediments. • Accumulation rate fell to 0.1 mm/a during MIS 2, likely due to reduced sediment supply. • Use of multiple independent chronometers is a powerful approach in lake settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of credit constraints on household welfare in Ethiopia. We use a three-wave panel dataset for rural and small-town households to estimate the effects of household borrowing constraints on two alternative indicators of household welfare: consumption expenditure and asset ownership. The presence of a constraint is treated as an endogenous regressor, using an instrumental variable based on Baumol's theory of contestable markets. We find that credit constraints have a significantly negative effect on both outcomes. These results are robust to several alternative specifications of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerous dispersal events that have occurred during the prehistory of hominin lineages are the subject of longstanding and increasingly active debate in evolutionary anthropology. As well as research into the dating and geographic extent of such dispersals, there is an increasing focus on the factors that may have been responsible for dispersal. The growing body of detailed regional palaeoclimatic data is invaluable in demonstrating the often close relationship between changes in prehistoric environments and the movements of hominin populations. The scenarios constructed from such data are often overly simplistic, however, concentrating on the dynamics of cyclical contraction and expansion during severe and ameliorated conditions respectively. This contribution proposes a two-stage hypothesis of hominin dispersal in which populations (1) accumulate high levels of climatic tolerance during highly variable climatic phases, and (2) express such heightened tolerance via dispersal in subsequent low-variability phases. Likely dispersal phases are thus proposed to occur during stable climatic phases that immediately follow phases of high climatic variability. Employing high resolution palaeoclimatic data from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, the hypothesis is examined in relation to the early dispersal of Homo sapiens out of East Africa and into the Levant. A dispersal phase is identified in the Lake Tana record between c. 112,550 and c. 96,975 years ago, a date bracket that accords well with the dating evidence for H. sapiens occupation at the sites of Qafzeh and Skhul. Results are discussed in relation to the complex pattern of H. sapiens dispersal out of East Africa, with particular attention paid to the implications of recent genetic chronologies for the origin of non-African modern humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test hypothesized linkages between climate and human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation by the acquisition and analysis of long (~280 m) sediment cores that have recorded environmental change in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopia. In this time-series analysis project, we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake, and humans within the lake catchment. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system.We use methods of linear and nonlinear time series analysis, such as change point detection, semblance analysis and recurrence plots, to identify and classify recurring types of variability and transitions on the time scales of human life spans. For example, we investigate the rapidness of transitions, possible precursor events, and tipping points in our palaeoenvironmental data and discuss their possible impact on the living conditions of humans in the region. First results of the analysis show that we indeed find, as an example, recurring threshold-type transitions, when the Chew Bahir system switched from one stable mode to another, such as from stable wet to dry conditions. Such a rapid change of climate in response to a relatively modest change in forcing appears to be typical of tipping points in complex systems such as the Chew Bahir. If this is the case then the 14 dry events idenfified at the end of the African Humid Period (15–5 kyr BP) could represent precursors of an imminent tipping point that, if properly interpreted, would allow predictions to be made of future climate change in the Chew Bahir basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sediments of the Chew Bahir playa lake in southern Ethiopia were cored down to 280 m depth in the context of HSPDP (Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project) and CRC (Collaborative Research Center) 806 "Our way to Europe" projects. The main aim is to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions during the development of anatomically modern humans (AMH) and to test hypotheses about human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation. Based on several dating methods (14C, Ar/Ar, optical stimulated luminescence, chemical fingerprints of tephras) the composite core is shown to cover the last ~600 ka and therefore brackets the time period of important steps in cultural evolution, from Late Acheulean to Middle/Late Stone Age technologies, the origin of AMH, as well as the most recent "Out of Africa" human dispersal events. The multiproxy record of the composite core (e.g., chemical and physical sediment properties, stable C, O and Sr isotope ratios of carbonates, microfossil assemblages and biomarkers) indicates long- and short-time hydroclimatic changes mainly driven by orbital controlled insolation (mostly the Earth's precession ~15-25 ka, but also eccentricity ~90-120 ka). We compare our Chew Bahir data with results from other long marine and terrestrial paleoclimatic records. Here we focus on particularly strong wet and dry fluctuations at Chew Bahir during the last 200 ka to test established hypotheses for human dispersal and technological innovation. The record indicates that at least some of the human dispersal waves have taken place during wetter environmental conditions offering green corridors in East Africa, one of the source regions of our ancestors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cores from terrestrial archives, such as the lacustrine sediments from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia, which cover the last ~600 ka, often reflect both local, regional and global climate influences. In our analysis we were able to identify several time windows in which the Chew Bahir climate is in resonance with regional and global climate change.As a contribution to understanding and differentiating these connections recorded in the Chew Bahir sediments, we have correlated the 2nd principal component of the MSCL based color reflectance values representing wet conditions in the Chew Bahir basin, with the wetness index from ocean core ODP 967 from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The correlation between these two time series was calculated using the Spearman correlation coefficient in a sliding window. Episodes with high correlation between the two records of wetness could indicate a strong link between both regions, possibly through an increased outflow of the river Nile into the eastern Mediterranean Sea due to higher precipitation values on the Ethiopian plateau.Our preliminary results show that when correlating the two records, two distinct temporal units can be distinguished. Between ~570 ka and ~350 ka the correlation is dominated by cycles that correspond with orbital precession whereas the second unit (after 350 ka) reveals a strong influence of atmospheric CO2. This observation suggests that both orbital precession and atmospheric CO2. may cause a synchronization of different regions in the African climate system, possibly depending on boundary conditions which are still to be identified.As a next step we'll investigate the nonlinear relationships between the two records by focusing on the transition between the two main observed phases. The transition around ~350 kyrs however, is not only highly interesting from a climatic perspective, but it is also a noteworthy period for human cultural evolution as a transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) technologies takes place at this time. So far our results outline that during this climatically and evolutionary relevant episode a relatively stable, long-lasting, pan-African wet phase may have existed, with possible green corridors connecting the habitats of hominins, and ample resources supporting large population sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]