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EPOS presented a unique opportunity to document all ''treatments as usual'' offered and received in the participating centres to help-seeking patients who fulfilled criteria for UHR status. The EPOS centres were drawn from very different healthcare systems, employing different treatment concepts and using different methods of ascertainment. EPOS ascertained n=245 UHR patients who were then followed up at 9 and 18 months, taking repeat measures of prodromal symptoms (SIPS), PANSS and depression. In this paper I will describe the different treatments offered in each EPOS centre and the impact of each treatment class on the course of symptoms over time, including ‘transition’ to psychosis. These data will have important bearing on the misnomer of the ‘false positive’ in high risk research and on the other risks and outcomes linked to the UHR/PACE paradigm and their treatment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Evidence-based decisions on indicated prevention in early psychosis require large-scale studies on the pathways to care in high-risk subjects. EPOS (The European Prediction of Psychosis Study), a prospective multi-center, naturalistic field study in four European countries (Finland, Germany, The Netherlands and England), was designed to acquire accurate knowledge about pathways to care and delay in obtaining specialized high risk care. Our high risk sample (n=233) reported on average 2.9 help-seeking contacts, with an average delay between onset of relevant problems to initial help-seeking contact of 72.6 weeks, and between initial help-seeking contact and reaching specialized high risk care of 110.9 weeks. This resulted in a total estimated duration of an unrecognized risk for psychosis of 3 ½ years. Across EPOS EU regions, about 90% of care pathway contacts were within professional health care sectors. Between EPOS regions, differences in the pathways parameters including early detection and health-care systems were often very pronounced. High-risk participants who later made transition to a full psychotic disorder had significantly longer delays between initial help-seeking and receiving appropriate interventions. Our study underlines the need for regionally adapted implementation of early detection and intervention programs within respective mental health and health care networks, including enhancing public awareness of early psychosis., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: In selected samples, a considerable number of patients at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR) are found to meet criteria for co-morbid clinical psychiatric disorders. It is not known how clinical diagnoses correspond to or even predict transitions to psychosis (TTP). Our aim was to examine distributions of life-time and current Axis I diagnoses, and their association with TTP in CHR patients., Methods: In the EPOS (European Prediction of Psychosis Study) project, six European outpatient centres in four countries examined 245 young help-seeking patients, who fulfilled the inclusion criteria for clinical risk of psychosis according to the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS 3.0) or the Bonn Scale for the Assessment of Basic Symptoms - Prediction List basic symptoms (BASBS-P). Patients who had experienced a psychotic episode lasting more than one week were excluded. Baseline and life-time diagnoses were assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID-I). TTP was defined by continuation of BLIPS for more than seven days and predicted in Cox-regression analysis., Results: Altogether, 71% of the CHR patients had one or more life-time and 62% one or more current SCID-I diagnosis; about a half in each category received a diagnosis of life-time depressive and anxiety disorder. Currently, 34% suffered from depressive and 39% from anxiety disorder. Four percent received a current SCID diagnosis of bipolar, and 6.5% of somatoform disorder. During follow-up, 37 (15.1%) patients had developed full-blown psychosis. In bivariate analyses, current non-psychotic bipolar disorder associated significantly with TTP. In multivariate analyses, current bipolar disorder, somatoform and unipolar depressive disorders associated positively, and anxiety disorders negatively, with TTP., Conclusions: Both life-time and current mood and anxiety disorders are highly prevalent among clinical help-seeking CHR patients and need to be carefully evaluated. Among CHR patients, occurrence of bipolar, somatoform and depressive disorders seems to predict TTP, while occurrence of anxiety disorder may predict non-transition to psychosis., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Decline in social functioning occurs in individuals who later develop psychosis., Aims: To investigate whether baseline differences in disability are present in those who do and those who do not make a transition to psychosis in a group clinically at high risk and whether disability is a risk factor for transition., Method: Prospective multicentre, naturalistic field study with an 18-month follow-up period on 245 help-seeking individuals clinically at high risk. Disability was assessed with the Disability Assessment Schedule of the World Health Organization (WHODAS-II)., Results: At baseline, the transition group displayed significantly greater difficulties in making new friends (z = -3.40, P = 0.001), maintaining a friendship (z =-3.00, P = 0.003), dealing with people they do not know (z =-2.28, P = 0.023) and joining community activities (z =-2.0, P = 0.05) compared with the non-transition group. In Cox regression, difficulties in getting along with people significantly contributed to the prediction of transition to psychosis in our sample (β = 0.569, s.e. = 0.184, Wald = 9.548, P = 0.002, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.767, 95% CI 1.238-2.550)., Conclusions: Certain domains of social disability might contribute to the prediction of psychosis in a sample clinically at high risk.

Context: Indicated prevention is currently regarded as the most promising strategy to attenuate, delay, or even avert psychosis. Existing criteria need improvement in terms of specificity and individual risk assessment to allow for better targeted and earlier interventions., Objective: To develop a differential predictive clinical model of transition to first-episode psychosis., Design: Prospective multicenter, naturalistic field study with a total follow-up time of 18 months., Setting: Six early-detection outpatient centers in Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, and England., Participants: Two hundred forty-five help-seeking patients in a putatively prodromal state of psychosis according to either ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria or the basic symptom-based criterion cognitive disturbances (COGDIS)., Main Outcome Measure: Incidence of transition to psychosis., Results: At 18-month follow-up, the incidence rate for transition to psychosis was 19%. Combining UHR and COGDIS yielded the best sensitivity. A prediction model was developed and included positive symptoms, bizarre thinking, sleep disturbances, a schizotypal disorder, level of functioning in the past year, and years of education. With a positive likelihood ratio of 19.9, an area under the curve of 80.8%, and a positive predictive value of 83.3%, diagnostic accuracy was excellent. A 4-level prognostic index further classifying the general risk of the whole sample predicted instantaneous incidence rates of up to 85% and allowed for an estimation of time to transition., Conclusions: The prediction model identified an increased risk of psychosis with appropriate prognostic accuracy in our sample. A 2-step risk assessment is proposed, with UHR and cognitive disturbance criteria serving as first-step criteria for general risk and the prognostic index as a second-step tool for further risk classification of each patient. This strategy will allow clinicians to target preventive measures and will support efforts to unveil the biological and environmental mechanisms underlying progression to psychosis.