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Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A IB scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multimodel combinatorics approach considered all possible subensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed men who have sex with men (MSM) from Denmark, Germany, Greece, Portugal and Spain to identify who would choose HIV self-testing as their preferred testing method and assessed their preferred setting to acquire a self-testing kit and to confirm a reactive result. In 2016, we recruited an online sample of 3725 HIV-negative MSM. We used Poisson regression to identify factors associated with choosing self-testing as the preferred testing option. For those choosing it as their preferred option, we assessed the preferred settings to acquire a self-testing kit and to confirm a reactive result. Not being open about one's sexual behaviors with men was associated with choosing self-testing as the preferred option, except in Greece; older age in Greece and Spain; reporting condomless anal intercourses (CAI) in Germany and Portugal; reporting one previous test in Greece; between 2 and 5 in Spain and with having been tested ≥ 12 months ago in Germany, Portugal and Spain. The internet (32.8%) was the preferred place to acquire a self-testing kit and primary care (34.0%) for confirmation purposes. Self-testing was highly valued, especially among individuals who were not open about their sexual behaviors with men. In certain countries, it was also associated with older age, CAI and being undertested.