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In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in the northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in western–central Europe, a June–August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that under 2 ∘ C global warming, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for western–central Europe compared to today and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change, using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in West-Central Europe, a June-August root-zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate, but would have occurred only about once per century during pre-industrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold, but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observationbased products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that in a 2 °C world, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for West-Central Europe compared to today, and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries rely on regional climate model (RCM) simulations to quantify the projectedimpacts of climate change and design their national adaptation plans. The accuracy andreliability of RCM simulations is thus of fundamental importance and, in particular, it iscrucial to include all relevant climate processes in RCMs. One of the processes notconsidered in most RCMs is the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2concentrations (the plant physiological CO2 effect); a process which is however includedin most global climate models (GCMs). Here we show that due to this missingprocess, RCMs underestimate the future increase of extreme temperatures compared toGCMs. The plant physiological CO2 effect takes into account that at higher CO2 concentrationsplants increase their water use efficiency, i.e. the fraction of CO2 uptake to transpiration. As aconsequence, plants reduce the openings of their leaf stomata at elevated CO2 concentrations.This causes a reduction of plant transpiration, resulting in a decrease of latent heat flux and anincrease of sensible heat flux. Ultimately, the plant physiological CO2 effect can thusalter near-surface air temperatures. Using a state-of-the-art regional climate model(COSMO-CLM2), we perform two model simulations: one that includes the plantphysiological CO2 effect and one where plants are insensitive to the atmospheric CO2increase. The simulations cover the European domain and the time span 1971-2099. In thesimulation that includes the plant physiological CO2 effect, evapotranspiration in central andnorthern Europe at the end of the 21st century is significantly lower than in the simulationwith insensitive plants (calculated as changes with respect to 1971-2000). In contrast, theevapotranspiration difference between both simulations is small in southern Europe,suggesting that other factors, such as soil moisture limitations, prevent a strongimpact of the plant physiological CO2 effect on evapotranspiration in this region. Theresults obtained with COSMO-CLM2 are in line with the fact that RCMs fromthe EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble also exhibit lower evapotranspirationcompared to GCMs in central and northern Europe at the end of the 21st century (withrespect to 1971-2000). Additionally, the results from COSMO-CLM2 agree verywell with estimations of the plant physiological CO2 effect from dedicated CMIP5experiments. Including the plant physiological CO2 effects in COSMO-CLM2 also affectsnear-surface air temperatures. In central and northern Europe, the annual maximumtemperature (TXx) is about 1 K higher in the COSMO-CLM2 simulation with plantphysiological CO2 effects compared to the simulation with insensitive plants at theend of the 21st century. This result can partially explain the discrepancy betweenthe TXx evolution in GCMs and RCMs in central and northern Europe where atthe end of the 21st century GCMs exhibit a TXx increase that is about 2 K higherthan the TXx increase in RCMs. According to the COSMO-CLM2 simulations,the plant physiological CO2 effect accounts for about 50 % of the TXx differencebetween GCMs and RCMs. Neglecting the plant physiological CO2 effect can thusresult in a substantial underestimation of future temperature increases in RCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]