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Abstract: This paper investigates how the European electricity generation system can meet deep cuts in CO2 emissions until the year 2050 with special focus on national conditions for CCS. An 85% reduction in CO2 emissions until 2050 is imposed. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. The modeling puts a cap on CO2 emissions from the system which gives a price on these emissions, i.e. similar to the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which is the main policy instrument for controlling GHG emissions within EU. Emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective, including the effect of investing in new transmission capacity between member states. The work compares two scenarios, one used in a previous work with significant growth in electricity consumption and one assuming that energy efficiency measures are successfully applied in line with the recent EU energy policy package. The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050 at a cost of some 50 to 80 € /ton CO2 over the period up to 2050, but this will require large contributions from CCS and electricity from renewable sources (mainly wind and biomass). Yet, without significant energy efficiency measures it is questionable if such large investments in generation technologies are feasible. Thus, to reach an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions from the electricity generation system by 2050 is not a matter of choice between different technologies and energy efficiency measures but all of these are required and the crucial point is if there will be a high enough price on CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents results from a survey of stakeholder attitudes towards Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The survey is the first to make a global comparison across three major regions: North America, Japan, and Europe. It is based on a 30-question survey which targeted individuals working at stakeholder organizations that seek to shape, and will need to respond to, policy on CCS, including electric utilities, oil and gas companies, CO2-intensive industries and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The paper reports results from the original survey carried out in 2006 and from a recent follow up on key CCS questions (April 2009). The results show generally small differences across the regions and between the different groups of stakeholders. All believed that the challenge of significant reductions in emissions using only current technologies was severe. There was a widespread belief that CCS as well as renewable technologies such as solar power will achieve major market entry into the electricity sector within the next 10–20 years, whereas there is more scepticism about the role of hydrogen and especially nuclear fusion in the next 50 years. All groups were generally positive towards renewable energy. Yet, there were some notable areas of disagreement in the responses, for example, as expected, NGOs considered the threat of climate change to be more serious than the other groups. North American respondents were more likely to downplay the threat compared to those of the other regions. The Japanese were more concerned about the burden that would be placed on industry in the coming decade as a result of emissions constraints and NGOs were more likely to believe that the burden imposed would be light or very light. NGO respondents also believed CCS to be far more attractive than nuclear power (fission) but much less than renewables. As expected, the risk for leakage from reservoirs was ranked number one of the risk options given. The follow-up study generally confirmed the results of the original study with a few notable differences. As expected, the results of the follow-up shows that respondents consider CCS to play an increased role in the national climate debate. In Japan, there was an increased fraction of respondents who claimed that their organization has a clear position on CCS. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of CCS technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the European electricity supply system until the year 2050. The analysis is carried out with the aid of a techno-economic model (with the objective to minimize the total system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity supply system (power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure databases. The ability of different EU Member States and regions to facilitate and to benefit from CCS will most likely depend on local conditions in terms of current energy mix, fuel supply chains and distance to suitable storage locations. Special emphasis is therefore put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective. The paper discusses the role of and the requirements on CCS for meeting strict CO2 emission reduction targets of 85% reduction from power generation by 2050 relative 1990 emissions in three different scenarios. All analysed scenarios apply the same cap on CO2 emissions. The first scenario includes a continued growth in electricity demand (as presented in EU base-line projections). The second scenario includes stated EU targets for 2020 and indicative targets for 2050 with respect to increased energy efficiency, and thus, considers a lower growth in electricity demand compared to the base-line. The third scenario includes EU targets (to 2020 and indicative targets to 2050) on energy efficiency, equal to the second scenario, and EU targets of electricity from renewables. The results show that it is possible for the European electricity generation system to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050 with a potentially large contribution from CCS. Up to 50% of the electricity generation will come from plants with CCS with a peak capture estimated to 1.8GtCO2 per year and cumulative CO2 capture of about 39GtCO2 between 2020 and 2050 (it is assumed that CCS will be commercially available from 2020). As expected, countries which currently have high carbon intensity and which are located nearby suitable storage sites will benefit the most from CCS implementation. Hence, the results suggest that Italy has the largest demand for CCS with annual peak capture at around 0.5GtCO2 in the base-line scenario. The model results indicate a steep ramp-up of CCS post-2020, which imposes challenges for timely investments in corresponding CCS infrastructure including transportation and storage. A continued growth in electricity demand can lead to demand for CCS to such extent (in the base-line capacity build up is about 300GW of CCS between 2020 and 2050) that the actual penetration level could be limited by fuel markets and power industries’ ability to supply fuel and CCS power plants. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents results from a survey on stakeholder attitudes towards Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The survey is the first to make a global comparison across three major regions; USA, Japan, and Europe. The 30-question survey targeted individuals working at stakeholder organizations that seek to shape, and will need to respond to, policy on CCS, including electric utilities, oil & gas companies, CO2-intensive industries and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The results show generally small differences across the regions and between the different groups of stakeholders. All believed that the challenge of significant reductions in emissions using only current technologies was severe. There is a widespread belief both that renewable technologies such as solar power and CCS will achieve major market entry into the electricity sector within the next 10 to 20 years, whereas there is more skepticism about the role of hydrogen and especially nuclear fusion in the next 50 years. All groups were generally positive towards renewable energy. Yet, there were some notable areas of disagreement in the responses, for example, as expected, NGOs considered the threat of climate change to be more serious than the other groups. North Americans respondents were more likely to downplay the threat compared to those of the other regions. The Japanese were more concerned about the burden that would be placed on industry in the coming decade as a result of emissions constraints and NGOs were more likely to believe that the burden would be light or very light. NGOs believed CCS to be far more attractive than nuclear fusion power but much less than renewables. As expected, the risk for leakage from reservoirs was ranked number one of the risk options given. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the European electricity supply system until the year 2050. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. Since the ability of different EU Member States and regions to facilitate and to benefit from CCS will most likely depend on local conditions in terms of current energy mix, fuel supply chains and distance to suitable storage locations, special emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective. The paper discusses the role of and requirements on CCS for meeting strict emission targets of 85% reduction while having a continued growth in electricity demand (according to EU projections). The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050, but this will require large contribution from CCS. As expected, regions which are currently high in carbon intensity and which are located nearby suitable storage sites will benefit mostly from CCS as an option. With the assumption that CCS will be commercially available in 2020 the model results give a steep ramp-up in the use of CCS post 2020 which imposes challenges for timely investments in corresponding CCS infrastructure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates conditions for a rapid ramp-up of a large-scale CO2 transport and storage infrastructure within the power and heat sector in EU’s Member States (MS). First, each MS is investigated individually with respect to the relevance of CCS in the power and heat sector. Second, the potential cost of CO2 transport and storage is evaluated and categorised into three levels for each MS with particular emphasis being put on power plant clusters, ownership concentration, source-sink distance and onshore storage potential. The chosen cost category for each member state is then used as input in a techno-economic modelling to evaluate the future electricity supply system in Europe as described elsewhere (Odenberger et al., 2008a). Finally, based on the modelling results, the study develops a detailed CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure for Germany and UK and discusses issues related to the ramp-up of such infrastructure. The analysis shows that most MS have identified structures that may be suitable for subsurface storage of CO2. Fourteen MS have so far identified onshore reservoirs only. Several MS have clusters of large power plants along with considerable national or regional concentration of plant ownership, factors that may both facilitate the ramp-up of a bulk CCS infrastructure. Phasing in of CCS plants over time will obviously play a key role in building up large-scale transport infrastructure. CCS plants are likely to be located on existing sites and coal plants currently under construction may choose to retrofit the plant for CCS instead of building new plants. CO2 pipeline trajectories are likely to follow existing trajectories for natural gas pipelines, minimising interference with the surroundings and facilitate and speed up permitting processes. Timing, conflicts of interest and public acceptance, especially onshore, are other factors that may become an issue with regard to transport and storage of CO2. According to model results, some 5.2 Gt CO2 is transported and stored in Germany between 2020 and 2050 while the corresponding figure in the UK is 3.7 Gt. Based on assumed injectivity, total system costs up to 2050 range between €18 and €23 billion in Germany and between €20 and €30 billion in the UK while specific costs range between €3.4 and €4.4 per ton of CO2 in Germany and between €5.4 and €8.1 in the UK. Finally, the modelling results indicate a rapid switch from gas based to coal based power generation with CCS. It is, however, likely that the large fuel switch from gas to coal will be moderated considerably by market dynamics and issues related to the fuel supply chain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the European electricity generation system until the year 2050. Special emphasis is put on the ramp-up of CCS with respect to timing of investments and requirement of corresponding CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure. The investigation comprises scenario analysis through modeling possible development of the electricity supply system for EU25 and together with a more detailed analysis of Northern Europe (Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway). The modeling has been carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure database. It is concluded that CCS can play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions at a cost in the range of 20–60€/t over the period studied. In EU25 as much as 39Gt CO2 may be captured over the period 2020–2050 implying a steep ramp-up, i.e. most CCS capacity is added during the first two decades after 2020 from which it is assumed to be commercially available. Corresponding capture in Germany and UK amounts to 9 and 4Gt, respectively. The analysis show that a transportation infrastructure can be put in place for about 2–5€/t CO2. However, the steep ramp-up obtained from the model obviously do not take into account other issues which must be resolved for a large scale implementation of CCS. Examples of such issues are discussed in the paper and concern establishment of a legal framework regulating subsurface storage of CO2, inclusion of captured CO2 in the European Union emission trading scheme and issues related to fuel markets and fuel supply to accommodate an increased use of coal as a fuel. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

m. lindblad, p. johnsson, n. jonsson, r. lindqvist and m. olsen. 2004. To model the probability of exceeding the European legislative limit of 5 μg ochratoxin A (OTA) per kilogram grain in relation to Penicillium verrucosum levels and storage conditions, and to evaluate the possibilities of using P. verrucosum colony counts for predicting noncompliant OTA levels. Cereal samples were inoculated with P. verrucosum spores and stored for up to 9 months at temperatures and water activities ranging from 10–25°C and aw 0·77–0·95. A logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of exceeding 5 μg OTA kg−1 grain was related to colony counts of P. verrucosum and water activity. The sensitivity and specificity of various P. verrucosum count thresholds for predicting noncompliant OTA levels were estimated, using data from the storage trial and natural cereal samples. The risk of exceeding 5 μg OTA kg−1 grain increased with increasing levels of P. verrucosum, and with increasing water activities. A threshold of 1000 CFU P. verrucosum per gram grain is suggested to predict whether or not the legislative limit is exceeded. This study has provided a tool to evaluate the levels of P. verrucosum in grain in relation to OTA levels. Hence, mycological analyses can be used to identify cereal samples with high risk of containing OTA levels above the legislative limit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]