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In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft's comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the 2004 and 2007 waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that for every 100 births intended, about 60 births occur, on average, across 22 countries. This shortfall in fertility masks substantial heterogeneity between subgroups within the populations surveyed. Motherhood status, age, partnership status, and the strength of fertility intentions moderate the relationship between women's childbearing plans and births measured at the country level. Individual-level analyses using data from three countries included in the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Generations and Gender Survey are consistent with our country-level analyses. We demonstrate that repeat cross-sectional data can be used to analyse the correspondence between childbearing plans and births when longitudinal data are lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Copyright of European Journal of Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of European Journal of Population is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article deals with population dynamics in chosen European locations with different age structures, future expected growth developments and urbanization prospects. The case study approach was chosen in order to depict spatially relevant details and characteristics of a small region with an urban core. The populations are subjected to a set of four possible futures, which are called scenarios. The demographics of each are different, and these variations are shown by means of population projections. The results show that in Koper, Slovenia and the Warsaw region, Poland the cities undergo dynamics that is very sensitive to the age structure of the population, future fertility, mortality and international migration prospects. The degree of urbanization further depends on local movement of population, which can be muffled by daily work-migration. Data availability on the local level is proven to be a challenge for detailed demographic studies, as is future uncertainty with respect to migration, be it local or international. Despite the uncertainties in the future levels of migration, it can be seen that age-structure and current low fertility levels have a long-standing impact on the demography of a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article deals with population dynamics in chosen European locations with different age structures, future expected growth developments and urbanization prospects. The case study approach was chosen in order to depict spatially relevant details and characteristics of a small region with an urban core. The populations are subjected to a set of four possible futures, which are called scenarios. The demographics of each are different, and these variations are shown by means of population projections. The results show that in Koper, Slovenia and the Warsaw region, Poland the cities undergo dynamics that is very sensitive to the age structure of the population, future fertility, mortality and international migration prospects. The degree of urbanization further depends on local movement of population, which can be muffled by daily work-migration. Data availability on the local level is proven to be a challenge for detailed demographic studies, as is future uncertainty with respect to migration, be it local or international. Despite the uncertainties in the future levels of migration, it can be seen that age-structure and current low fertility levels have a long-standing impact on the demography of a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT- This article suggests that emerging adulthood, the stage in the life cycle described by Arnett for the United States, is also evident in Europe. The article examines the characteristics of emerging adulthood in Europe and highlights their regional and national similarities and differences. Also examined are the differences between European emerging adulthood and the American model, which chiefly involve the various ways European youth ameliorate economic and domestic instability. This article is based on a study of one of the most salient consequences of emerging adulthood, low fertility. A clear sign of emerging adulthood in Europe is that historically low numbers of children are being born there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relationship of low and lowest-low period fertility to cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviour such as leaving the parental home, marriage, and women's labour force participation. Our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between total fertility and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births, and the labour force participation of women reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. By the end of the 1990s there was also no longer evidence that divorce levels were negatively associated with fertility levels. We argue that lowest-low fertility has been particularly associated with a 'falling behind' of cohort fertility at higher birth orders and later ages. From these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s was accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known relationships that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence of emigration. Between 2009 and 2014, Southern European countries suffered from harsh economic instability, which triggered a sharp drop in fertility and a spike in emigration. We focus on Italy, exploiting the richness of the Italian Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE), which records information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad, as well as Italian birth records. Using an instrumental variable approach, which helps overcome endogeneity issues in the fertility-migration relationship, we find a positive impact of emigration on the total fertility rate at the Italian province level. This result suggests that emigrants are selected among those individuals who have a lower risk of having children. Therefore, in the absence of emigration, counterfactual fertility would have been lower than it actually is. Such a positive effect of out-migration on fertility in the area of origin could thereby lead to an underestimation of the effect of the recession on fertility., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors.)