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Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility. The question of whether women who produce twins are more fertile than other women has been debated. Here, the authors analyze a large dataset of pre-industrial birth outcomes and find evidence against the idea of higher fertility and instead that more births lead to more twinning opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correction to: I Nature Communications i https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30366-9, published online 24 May 2022 In this article the funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) - project number 491292795 was omitted. The original article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30366-9. [Extracted from the article]

Human twinning rates are considered to either reflect the direct fitness effects of twinning in variable environments, or to be a maladaptive by-product of selection for other maternal reproductive traits (e.g., polyovulation). We used historical data (1710-1890) of Sami populations from Northern Scandinavia to contrast these alternative hypotheses. We found that women who produced twins started their reproduction younger, ceased it later, had higher lifetime fecundity, raised more offspring to adulthood, and had higher fitness (individual lambda) than mothers of singletons in all populations studied. For example, an average of 1.2 offspring survived to adulthood from a twin delivery, irrespective of its sex ratio, whereas only 0.8 offspring survived to adulthood from a singleton delivery. Only if mothers started reproduction at very late age (> 37 yr), or had a very long reproductive life span (> 20 yr), was it more beneficial to produce only singletons. These findings suggest that twin deliveries among Sami could not be explained as a maladaptive by-product of selection for other maternal reproductive traits. In contrast, our results suggest that twinning was under natural selection, although the strength of selection was likely to have been context dependent.