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Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick's geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance) is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geographic patterns of transmission opportunities of vector-borne zoonoses are determined by a complex interplay between the migration patterns of the host and the vector. Here we examine the impact of host migration on the spread of a tick-borne zoonotic disease, using Lyme Borreliosis (LB) spirochaetal species in Europe. We demonstrate that the migration of the LB species is dependent on and limited by the migration of their respective hosts. We note that populations of Borrelia spp. associated with birds ( Borrelia garinii and B. valaisiana) show limited geographic structuring between countries compared with those associated with small mammals ( Borrelia afzelii), and we argue that this can be explained by higher rates of migration in avian hosts. We also show the presence of B. afzelii strains in England and, through the use of the multi-locus sequence analysis scheme, reveal that the strains are highly structured. This pattern in English sites is very different from that observed at the continental sites, and we propose that these may be recent introductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure-state-response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour.

Background: The emergence of zoonoses is due both to changes in human activities and to changes in their natural wildlife cycles. One of the most significant vector-borne zoonoses in Europe, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), doubled in incidence in 1993, largely as a consequence of the socio-economic transition from communism to capitalism and associated environmental changes., Methods: To test the effect of the current economic recession, unemployment in 2009 and various socio-economic indices were compared to weather indices (derived from principal component analyses) as predictors for the change in TBE case numbers in 2009 relative to 2004-08, for 14 European countries., Results: Greatest increases in TBE incidence occurred in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (91, 79 and 45%, respectively). The weather was rejected as an explanatory variable. Indicators of high background levels of poverty, e.g. percent of household expenditure on food, were significant predictors. The increase in unemployment in 2009 relative to 2008 together with 'in-work risk of poverty' is the only case in which a multivariate model has a second significant term., Conclusion: Background socio-economic conditions determine susceptibility to risk of TBE, while increased unemployment triggered a sudden increase in risk. Mechanisms behind this result may include reduced resistance to infection through stress; reduced uptake of costly vaccination; and more exposure of people to infected ticks in their forest habitat as they make greater use of wild forest foods, especially in those countries, Lithuania and Poland, with major marketing opportunities in such products. Recognition of these risk factors could allow more effective protection through education and a vaccination programme targeted at the economically most vulnerable.

Purpose of Review: Much public health concern and scientific interest has been kindled by significant increases in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis over the past 1-2 decades. It is the most important vector-borne disease of humans in Europe, for which excellent long-term data allow robust quantitative analyses., Recent Findings: Despite the increasing tendency to attribute all increases in vector-borne diseases to climate change, there is no convincing evidence that the appearance of new foci in Sweden, Switzerland, France and Germany during this century, or the upsurge in cases within well recognized endemic regions, is due to the recorded minor extensions of infectious ticks into higher altitudes and latitudes and into winter periods, in response to warmer conditions. Rather, there is now good evidence of greater human exposure to infected ticks through altered socioeconomic circumstances (in addition to higher densities of tick-feeding deer--not reviewed here), so far best quantified for Central and Eastern Europe., Summary: Increased awareness of tick-borne encephalitis and understanding of the changing risk factors, including the role of human behaviour, will ensure better personal protection against infection, including vaccination and avoidance of high-risk activities.

Even though tick-borne disease systems are highly susceptible to climatic influences, climate change to date is not necessarily the cause of the marked increased incidence of a variety of tick-borne diseases in many parts of Europe over the past two decades. To test for causality, rather than coincidence, we need to examine whether the right sorts of climate change have occurred at the right time and in the right places to account for the observed heterogeneous temporal and spatial patterns of tick-borne disease 'emergence'. Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence, for example, showed a 3-fold step increase from 1983 to 1986 in Sweden, doubled in 1993 in the Czech Republic, increased even more dramatically in the same year in Lithuania and Poland, but declined markedly in 1997 in Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia. Within each country, TBE incidence has changed to different degrees in different regions. Because other tick-borne diseases, notably Lyme borreliosis, has commonly 'emerged' in parallel with TBE, we should first examine climate variables predicted to have a general effect on tick abundance, which has indeed increased in the past decade. These include temperature and moisture stress, which have seasonally differential impacts. Monthly mean records for 1960-2000 from the UK Climate Research Unit's interpolated global climate surface reveal that mean spring, spring-autumn and winter temperatures have all increased gradually over the past 40 years, but apparently most sharply in the late 1980s, when moisture stress also increased. These climate data do not reveal any obvious differences between sites where TBE did or did not 'emerge', and in Sweden increases in TBE pre-dated the onset of warmer springs and winters. If recorded climate changes cannot yet satisfactorily explain the temporal and spatial patterns of tick-borne disease change in Europe, the impact of biotic factors, such as increases in deer abundance and changing habitat structure, and of socio-political changes following the end of communist rule, demand more detailed quantitative analyses.

Vector-borne pathogen systems are limited by climate, principally through its impact on the distribution, abundance and population dynamics of the vectors and on the interaction of vectors with their hosts. This leads to the prediction that climate has been a significant factor in the evolution of these pathogens and, by implication, will be important in future events on both evolutionary and ecological time-scales. New phylogenetic trees of organisms, that describe their evolutionary history, are routinely available, but explanations for the driving force and constraints that have shaped the evolutionary origin of new pathogen strains are rare. Under the force of environmental pressures that change in space and time, which pathogens are likely to emerge in new places and where will this be? To answer such questions, data from molecular biology can be linked with data from satellites that allow us to characterize environmental conditions on a global scale. Broad-scale patterns in the satellite imagery are consistent with the pattern of new tick-borne flaviviruses having evolved sequentially in a cline across the world. So far, the distribution of three tick-borne flaviviruses from western Europe have been captured simultaneously by the same 10 satellite-derived seasonal climatic variables. Once this procedure is extended to the remaining viruses in this clade, we shall test for significant matches between their phylogenetic tree and an independent tree derived from quantitative descriptions of the viruses' 'eco-space'. This will indicate the extent of key ecological drivers for specific evolutionary events, whose biological basis can then be explored in detail.