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Seasonal snow cover plays a major role in the climate system of the Northern Hemisphere via its effect on land surface albedo and fluxes. In climate models the parameterization of interactions between snow and atmosphere remains a source of uncertainty and biases in the representation of local and global climate. Here, we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) coupled with different land surface models to simulate snow–atmosphere interactions over Europe in winter and spring. We use a previously defined index, the snow-albedo sensitivity index (SASI), to quantify the radiative forcing associated with snow cover anomalies. By comparing RCM-derived SASI values with SASI calculated from reanalyses and satellite retrievals, we show that an accurate simulation of snow cover is essential for correctly reproducing the observed forcing over middle and high latitudes in Europe. The choice of parameterizations, and primarily the choice of the land surface model, strongly influences the representation of SASI as it affects the ability of climate models to simulate snow cover accurately. The degree of agreement between the datasets differs between the accumulation and ablation periods, with the latter one presenting the greatest challenge for the RCMs. Given the dominant role of land surface processes in the simulation of snow cover during the ablation period, the results suggest that, during this time period, the choice of the land surface model is more critical for the representation of SASI than the atmospheric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover in sub-polar and alpine regions of northern and eastern Europe have already begun changing due to natural and anthropogenic changes such as afforestation. This will impact the regional climate and hydrology upon which societies in these regions are highly reliant. This study aims to identify the impacts of afforestation/reforestation (hereafter afforestation) on snow and the snow-albedo effect and highlight potential improvements for future model development. The study uses an ensemble of nine regional climate models for two different idealised experiments covering a 30-year period; one experiment replaces most land cover in Europe with forest, while the other experiment replaces all forested areas with grass. The ensemble consists of nine regional climate models composed of different combinations of five regional atmospheric models and six land surface models. Results show that afforestation reduces the snow-albedo sensitivity index and enhances snowmelt. While the direction of change is robustly modelled, there is still uncertainty in the magnitude of change. The greatest differences between models emerge in the snowmelt season. One regional climate model uses different land surface models which shows consistent changes between the three simulations during the accumulation period but differs in the snowmelt season. Together these results point to the need for further model development in representing both grass–snow and forest–snow interactions during the snowmelt season. Pathways to accomplishing this include (1) a more sophisticated representation of forest structure, (2) kilometre-scale simulations, and (3) more observational studies on vegetation–snow interactions in northern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the first phase of the Euro-CORDEX Flagship Plot Study (FPS) Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS), we investigate the afforestation impact on the seasonal cycle of soil temperature over the European continent with an ensemble of ten regional climate models (RCMs). For this purpose, each ensemble member performed two idealized land cover experiments in which Europe is covered either by forests or grasslands. The multi-model mean exhibits a reduction of the annual amplitude of soil temperature (AAST) over all European regions, although this not a robust feature among the models. In Mediterranean, the simulated AAST response to afforestation is between -4 K and +2 K while in Scandinavia the inter-model spread ranges from -7 K to +1 K. We then examine the role of changes in the annual amplitude of ground heat flux (AAGHF) and summer soil moisture content (SMC) in determining the effect of afforestation on AAST response. In contrast with the diverging results in AAST, all the models consistently indicate a widespread AAGHF decrease and summer SMC decline due to afforestation. The AAGHF changes effectively explain the largest part of the inter-model variance in AAST response in most regions, while the changes in summer SMC determine the sign of AAST response within a group of three simulations sharing the same land surface model. Finally, we pair FLUXNET sites to compare the simulated results with observation-based evidence of the impact of forest on soil temperature. In line with models, observations indicate a summer ground cooling in forested areas compared to open lands. The vast majority of models agree with the sign of the observed reduction in AAST, although with a large variation in the magnitude of changes. Overall, we aspire to emphasize the effects of afforestation on soil temperature profile with this study, given that changes in the seasonal cycle of soil temperature potentially perturb crucial biochemical processes. Such perturbations can be of societal relevance as afforestation is proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of an ensemble of convection‐permitting models (CPM) to simulate deep convection using three case studies. The ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models, which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed some light on the issue, we quantify in this article the uncertainty associated to different physical parameterizations from that of using different initial conditions, often referred to as the internal variability. For this purpose, we establish a framework to quantify both signals and we compare them for upper atmospheric circulation and near‐surface variables. The analysis is carried out in the context of the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, in which the intermediate RCM WRF simulations that serve to drive the CPM are run several times with different parameterizations. For atmospheric circulation (geopotential height), the sensitivity induced by multi‐physics and the internal variability show comparable magnitudes and a similar spatial distribution pattern. For 2‐m temperature and 10‐m wind, the simulations with different parameterizations show larger differences than those launched with different initial conditions. The systematic effect over 1 year shows distinct patterns for the multi‐physics and the internal variability. Therefore, the general lesson of this study is that internal variability should be analysed in order to properly distinguish the impact of other sources of uncertainty, especially for short‐term sensitivity simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below -2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial dependence of meteorological variables is crucial for many impacts, for example, droughts, floods, river flows, energy demand, and crop yield. There is thus a need to understand how well it is represented in downscaling (DS) products. Within the COST Action VALUE, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatial variability in the output of over 40 different DS methods in a perfect predictor setup. The DS output is evaluated against daily precipitation and temperature observations for the period 1979–2008 at 86 sites across Europe and 53 sites across Germany. We have analysed the dependency of correlations of daily temperature and precipitation series at station pairs on the distance between the stations. For the European data set, we have also investigated the complexity of the downscaled data by calculating the number of independent spatial degrees of freedom. For daily precipitation at the German network, we have additionally evaluated the dependency of the joint exceedance of the wet day threshold and of the local 90th percentile on the distance between the stations. Finally, we have investigated regional patterns of European monthly precipitation obtained from rotated principal component analysis. We analysed Perfect Prog (PP) methods, which are based on statistical relationships derived from observations, as well as Model Output Statistics (MOS) approaches, which attempt to correct simulated variables. In summary, we found that most PP DS methods, with the exception of multisite analog methods and a method that explicitly models spatial dependence yield unrealistic spatial characteristics. Regional climate model‐based MOS methods showed good performance with respect to correlation lengths and the joint occurrence of wet days, but a substantial overestimation of the joint occurrence of heavy precipitation events. These findings apply to the spatial scales that are resolved by our observation network, and similar studies with higher resolutions, which are relevant for small hydrological catchment, are desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU‐COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and precipitation from the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis‐based predictors to isolate downscaling skill. The raw reanalysis output reveals that there is mostly a large bias with respect to the extreme index values at the considered stations across Europe, clearly pointing to the necessity of downscaling. The performance of the downscaling methods is closely linked to their specific structure and setup. All methods using parametric distributions require non‐standard distributions to correctly represent marginal aspects of extremes. Also, the performance is much improved by explicitly including a seasonal component, particularly in case of precipitation. With respect to the marginal aspects of extremes the best performance is found for model output statistics (MOS), weather generators (WGs) as well as perfect prognosis (PP) methods using analogues. Spell‐length‐related extremes of temperature are best assessed by MOS and WGs, spell‐length‐related extremes of precipitation by MOS and PP methods using analogues. The skill of PP methods with transfer functions varies strongly across the methods and depends on the extreme index, region and season considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of uncertainties in gridded observational reference data on regional climate model (RCM) evaluation is quantified on a pan‐European scale. Three different reference data sets are considered: the coarse‐resolved E‐OBS data set, a compilation of regional high‐resolution gridded products (HR) and the European‐scale MESAN reanalysis. Five high‐resolution ERA‐Interim‐driven RCM experiments of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative are evaluated against each of these references over eight European sub‐regions and considering a range of performance metrics for mean daily temperature and daily precipitation. The spatial scale of the evaluation is 0.22°, that is, the grid spacing of the coarsest data set in the exercise (E‐OBS). While the three reference grids agree on the overall mean climatology, differences can be pronounced over individual regions. These differences partly translate into RCM evaluation uncertainty. For most cases observational uncertainty is smaller than RCM uncertainty. Nevertheless, for individual sub‐regions and performance metrics observational uncertainty can dominate. This is especially true for precipitation and for metrics targeting the wet‐day frequency, the pattern correlation and the distributional similarity. In some cases the spatially averaged mean bias can also be considerably affected. An illustrative ranking exercise highlights the overall effect of observational uncertainty on RCM ranking. Over individual sub‐domains, the choice of a specific reference can modify RCM ranks by up to four levels (out of five RCMs). For most cases, however, RCM ranks are stable irrespective of the reference. These results provide a twofold picture: model uncertainty dominates for most regions and for most performance metrics considered, and observational uncertainty plays a minor role. For individual cases, however, observational uncertainty can be pronounced and needs to be definitely taken into account. Results can, to some extent, also depend on the treatment of precipitation undercatch in the observational reference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of Land Use Change (LUC) in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe. Namely, two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, which is relatively robust across models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation, a widespread warming, or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty. In contrast, for precipitation, the representation of atmospheric processes dictates more directly the simulated response. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important gaps remain in our understanding of the spread of farming into Europe, due partly to apparent contradictions between studies of contemporary genetic variation and ancient DNA. It seems clear that farming was introduced into central, northern, and eastern Europe from the south by pioneer colonization. It is often argued that these dispersals originated in the Near East, where the potential source genetic pool resembles that of the early European farmers, but clear ancient DNA evidence from Mediterranean Europe is lacking, and there are suggestions that Mediterranean Europe may have resembled the Near East more than the rest of Europe in the Mesolithic. Here, we test this proposal by dating mitogenome founder lineages from the Near East in different regions of Europe. We find that whereas the lineages date mainly to the Neolithic in central Europe and Iberia, they largely date to the Late Glacial period in central/eastern Mediterranean Europe. This supports a scenario in which the genetic pool of Mediterranean Europe was partly a result of Late Glacial expansions from a Near Eastern refuge, and that this formed an important source pool for subsequent Neolithic expansions into the rest of Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Portugal, the precipitation regimes present one of the highest volumes of extreme precipitation occurrence in Europe, and one of the largest mean precipitation spatial gradient (annual observed values above 2,500 mm in the NW and under 400 mm in the SE). Moreover, southern Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. In the ENSEMBLES framework many climate change assessment studies were performed, but none focused on Portuguese precipitation. An extensive evaluation and ranking of the RCMs results addressing the representation of mean precipitation and frequency distributions was performed through the computation of statistical errors and frequency distribution scores. With these results, an ensemble was constructed; giving the same weight to mean precipitation and distribution model skills. This ensemble reveals a good ability to describe the precipitation regime in Portugal, and enables the evaluation of the eventual impact of climate change on Portuguese precipitation according to the A1B scenario. The mean seasonal precipitation is expected to decrease substantially in all seasons, excluding winter. This reduction is statistically significant; it spans from less than 20 % in the north to 40 % in the south in the intermediate seasons, and is above 50 % in the largest portion of mainland in summer. At a basin level the precipitation diminishes in all months for all the basins with exception of December. Total precipitation PDFs reveal an important decrease of the contribution from low to moderate/high precipitation bins, and a striking rise for days with extreme rainfall, up to 30 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upcoming climate change effects will vary with region, season and time of the day. Existing annual and daily temperature cycles will shift and be reshaped, leading to increased air temperatures earlier and later in the year. Buildings will be affected by these changes, especially the ones using passive design strategies, whose performance is highly weather dependent. This study analyses the shift and reshape of annual and daily temperature cycles, focusing on when, where, and how passive design strategies (natural ventilation (NV), night cooling, and solar shading) are affected, going beyond season or yearly effectiveness. High temporal resolution (sub-daily and monthly) modelled data for the time frames (1971–2000) and (2017–2100) have been used to analyze upcoming changes in temperature, their interaction with solar radiation, and the consequent impacts on passive building strategies efficiency in European Union 43 most populated cities. The results show that changes in the diurnal temperature cycle will affect the daily temperature range (DTR), leading to two daily temperature cycle shapes: daytime (DTR increase) and a nighttime (DTR decrease), with different impacts on the heating and cooling seasons. Further, mild and warm days will occur earlier and persist until later in the year, shifting NV and shading seasons. In Northern Europe, NV season will be 6 weeks longer, while in Southern Europe it will be 9 weeks shorter. In Southern Europe, shading season will increase 2.5 months, direct solar radiation in south façades will increase 35% consequence of −13.5° in average maximum solar altitude, making overhangs less effective. • Climate change will affect the shape of the diurnal temperature cycles. • Days with reduced temperature amplitude occur in the heating season and increase residential heating demand. • Days with increased temperature amplitude occur mostly during the cooling season and increase cooling demand. • Shifts in annual temperature distribution will increase natural ventilation in the North of Europe and decrease in the South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The latest in a series of transformative studies of DNA from prehistoric Europeans focuses on mitochondrial DNA, bringing fresh surprises and filling in important details of the early stages of a European ancestry stretching back more than 40,000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new timescale has recently been established for human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages, making mtDNA at present the most informative genetic marker system for studying European prehistory. Here, we review the new chronology and compare mtDNA with Y-chromosome patterns, in order to summarize what we have learnt from archaeogenetics concerning five episodes over the past 50,000 years which significantly contributed to the settlement history of Europe: the pioneer colonisation of the Upper Palaeolithic, the Late Glacial re-colonisation of the continent from southern refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum, the postglacial re-colonization of deserted areas after the Younger Dryas cold snap, the arrival of Near Easterners with an incipient Neolithic package, and the small-scale migrations along continent-wide economic exchange networks beginning with the Copper Age. The available data from uniparental genetic systems have already transformed our view of the prehistory of Europe, but our knowledge of these processes remains limited. Nevertheless, their legacy remains as sedimentary layers in the gene pool of modern Europeans, and our understanding of them will improve substantially when more mtDNAs are completely sequenced, the Y chromosome more thoroughly analysed, and haplotype blocks of the autosomal genome become amenable to phylogeographic studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Human populations, along with those of many other species, are thought to have contracted into a number of refuge areas at the height of the last Ice Age. European populations are believed to be, to a large extent, the descendants of the inhabitants of these refugia, and some extant mtDNA lineages can be traced to refugia in Franco-Cantabria (haplogroups H1, H3, V, and U5b1), the Italian Peninsula (U5b3), and the East European Plain (U4 and U5a). Parts of the Near East, such as the Levant, were also continuously inhabited throughout the Last Glacial Maximum, but unlike western and eastern Europe, no archaeological or genetic evidence for Late Glacial expansions into Europe from the Near East has hitherto been discovered. Here we report, on the basis of an enlarged whole-genome mitochondrial database, that a substantial, perhaps predominant, signal from mitochondrial haplogroups J and T, previously thought to have spread primarily from the Near East into Europe with the Neolithic population, may in fact reflect dispersals during the Late Glacial period, ∼19–12 thousand years (ka) ago. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The biophysical characteristics of the land surface, such as surface albedo, leaf area index or surface roughness, are inseparably linked to the form of land use. Thus, land use changes (LUCs) can considerably influence the regional climate conditions, since they modify the surface radiation budget and the turbulent heat exchange between the surface and the atmosphere. But the actual impact of LUCs on the regional climate conditions is very difficult to quantify and is therefore controversially discussed within the scientific community. In order to improve the understanding of the LUC contribution to regional climate change, with the Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) initiative, a coordinated regional climate model comparison was designed.In the first phase of LUCAS, the impact of extreme LUCs on the regional climate in Europe is investigated, by simulating idealized LUC experiments with an ensemble of nine different Regional Climate Models. In the first experiment, Europe is completely covered with forest (FOREST), in the second experiment with grassland (GRASS).The focus of the presented study is on the impact of these extreme LUCs on the diurnal cycles of temperature and turbulent heat fluxes. For this, the results of the LUCAS ensemble were analyzed with respect to land surface characteristics affecting the turbulent heat exchange (e.g. surface roughness and albedo). Analysis revealed that an afforestation in the FOREST experiment leads to a reduced diurnal temperature cycle at the surface and an increased diurnal temperature cycle in the lower atmosphere compared to the GRASS experiment. The contrary effects of afforestation on the temperatures at the surface and in the lower atmosphere are mainly caused by the higher surface roughness of forest compared to grassland. In consequence, the sensible heat exchange between the surface and the atmosphere is increased over forest, leading to a warmer atmosphere during the day and a colder atmosphere during the night. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Orkney was a major cultural center during the Neolithic, 3800 to 2500 BC. Farming flourished, permanent stone settlements and chambered tombs were constructed, and long-range contacts were sustained. From ∼3200 BC, the number, density, and extravagance of settlements increased, and new ceremonial monuments and ceramic styles, possibly originating in Orkney, spread across Britain and Ireland. By ∼2800 BC, this phenomenon was waning, although Neolithic traditions persisted to at least 2500 BC. Unlike elsewhere in Britain, there is little material evidence to suggest a Beaker presence, suggesting that Orkney may have developed along an insular trajectory during the second millennium BC. We tested this by comparing new genomic evidence from 22 Bronze Age and 3 Iron Age burials in northwest Orkney with Neolithic burials from across the archipelago. We identified signals of inward migration on a scale unsuspected from the archaeological record: As elsewhere in Bronze Age Britain, much of the population displayed significant genome-wide ancestry deriving ultimately from the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. However, uniquely in northern and central Europe, most of the male lineages were inherited from the local Neolithic. This suggests that some male descendants of Neolithic Orkney may have remained distinct well into the Bronze Age, although there are signs that this had dwindled by the Iron Age. Furthermore, although the majority of mitochondrial DNA lineages evidently arrived afresh with the Bronze Age, we also find evidence for continuity in the female line of descent from Mesolithic Britain into the Bronze Age and even to the present day., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Important gaps remain in our understanding of the spread of farming into Europe, due partly to apparent contradictions between studies of contemporary genetic variation and ancient DNA. It seems clear that farming was introduced into central, northern, and eastern Europe from the south by pioneer colonization. It is often argued that these dispersals originated in the Near East, where the potential source genetic pool resembles that of the early European farmers, but clear ancient DNA evidence from Mediterranean Europe is lacking, and there are suggestions that Mediterranean Europe may have resembled the Near East more than the rest of Europe in the Mesolithic. Here, we test this proposal by dating mitogenome founder lineages from the Near East in different regions of Europe. We find that whereas the lineages date mainly to the Neolithic in central Europe and Iberia, they largely date to the Late Glacial period in central/eastern Mediterranean Europe. This supports a scenario in which the genetic pool of Mediterranean Europe was partly a result of Late Glacial expansions from a Near Eastern refuge, and that this formed an important source pool for subsequent Neolithic expansions into the rest of Europe., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

Determining the timing, identity and direction of migrations in the Mediterranean Basin, the role of "migratory routes" in and among regions of Africa, Europe and Asia, and the effects of sex-specific behaviors of population movements have important implications for our understanding of the present human genetic diversity. A crucial component of the Mediterranean world is its westernmost region. Clear features of transcontinental ancient contacts between North African and Iberian populations surrounding the maritime region of Gibraltar Strait have been identified from archeological data. The attempt to discern origin and dates of migration between close geographically related regions has been a challenge in the field of uniparental-based population genetics. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) studies have been focused on surveying the H1, H3 and V lineages when trying to ascertain north-south migrations, and U6 and L in the opposite direction, assuming that those lineages are good proxies for the ancestry of each side of the Mediterranean. To this end, in the present work we have screened entire mtDNA sequences belonging to U6, M1 and L haplogroups in Andalusians--from Huelva and Granada provinces--and Moroccan Berbers. We present here pioneer data and interpretations on the role of NW Africa and the Iberian Peninsula regarding the time of origin, number of founders and expansion directions of these specific markers. The estimated entrance of the North African U6 lineages into Iberia at 10 ky correlates well with other L African clades, indicating that U6 and some L lineages moved together from Africa to Iberia in the Early Holocene. Still, founder analysis highlights that the high sharing of lineages between North Africa and Iberia results from a complex process continued through time, impairing simplistic interpretations. In particular, our work supports the existence of an ancient, frequently denied, bridge connecting the Maghreb and Andalusia.

The origins of Ashkenazi Jews remain highly controversial. Like Judaism, mitochondrial DNA is passed along the maternal line. Its variation in the Ashkenazim is highly distinctive, with four major and numerous minor founders. However, due to their rarity in the general population, these founders have been difficult to trace to a source. Here we show that all four major founders, ~40% of Ashkenazi mtDNA variation, have ancestry in prehistoric Europe, rather than the Near East or Caucasus. Furthermore, most of the remaining minor founders share a similar deep European ancestry. Thus the great majority of Ashkenazi maternal lineages were not brought from the Levant, as commonly supposed, nor recruited in the Caucasus, as sometimes suggested, but assimilated within Europe. These results point to a significant role for the conversion of women in the formation of Ashkenazi communities, and provide the foundation for a detailed reconstruction of Ashkenazi genealogical history.

Background: There has been a growing concern in designing physical activity (PA) programmes for elderly people, since evidence suggests that such health promotion interventions may reduce the deleterious effects of the ageing process. Complete programme evaluations are a necessary prerequisite to continuous quality improvements. Being able to refine, adapt and create tools that are suited to the realities and contexts of PA programmes for the elderly in order to support its continuous improvement is, therefore, crucial. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a self-assessment tool for PA programmes for the elderly., Methods: A 3-round Delphi process was conducted via the Internet with 43 national experts in PA for the elderly, management and delivery of PA programmes for the elderly, sports management, quality management and gerontology, asking experts to identify the propositions that they considered relevant for inclusion in the self-assessment tool. Experts reviewed a list of proposed statements, based on the criteria and sub-criteria from the European Foundation for Quality Management Excellence Model (EFQM) and PA guidelines for older adults and rated each proposition from 1 to 8 (disagree to agree) and modified and/or added propositions. Propositions receiving either bottom or top scores of greater than 70% were considered to have achieved consensus to drop or retain, respectively., Results: In round 1, of the 196 originally-proposed statements (best practice principles), the experts modified 41, added 1 and achieved consensus on 93. In round 2, a total of 104 propositions were presented, of which experts modified 39 and achieved consensus on 53. In the last round, of 51 proposed statements, the experts achieved consensus on 19. After 3 rounds of rating, experts had not achieved consensus on 32 propositions. The resulting tool consisted of 165 statements that assess nine management areas involved in the development of PA programmes for the elderly., Conclusion: Based on experts' opinions, a self-assessment tool was found in order to access quality of PA programmes for the elderly. Information obtained with evaluations would be useful to organizations seeking to improve their services, customer satisfaction and, consequently, adherence to PA programmes, targeting the ageing population.

Background: The archaeology of North Africa remains enigmatic, with questions of population continuity versus discontinuity taking centre-stage. Debates have focused on population transitions between the bearers of the Middle Palaeolithic Aterian industry and the later Upper Palaeolithic populations of the Maghreb, as well as between the late Pleistocene and Holocene., Results: Improved resolution of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroup U6 phylogeny, by the screening of 39 new complete sequences, has enabled us to infer a signal of moderate population expansion using Bayesian coalescent methods. To ascertain the time for this expansion, we applied both a mutation rate accounting for purifying selection and one with an internal calibration based on four approximate archaeological dates: the settlement of the Canary Islands, the settlement of Sardinia and its internal population re-expansion, and the split between haplogroups U5 and U6 around the time of the first modern human settlement of the Near East., Conclusions: A Bayesian skyline plot placed the main expansion in the time frame of the Late Pleistocene, around 20 ka, and spatial smoothing techniques suggested that the most probable geographic region for this demographic event was to the west of North Africa. A comparison with U6's European sister clade, U5, revealed a stronger population expansion at around this time in Europe. Also in contrast with U5, a weak signal of a recent population expansion in the last 5,000 years was observed in North Africa, pointing to a moderate impact of the late Neolithic on the local population size of the southern Mediterranean coast.