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The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat-sum models and chilling-influenced heat-sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site-years over Europe and Canada. The chilling-influenced heat-sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7-day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling-influenced heat-sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter-spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Aims: Ongoing global warming has been implicated in shifting phenological patterns such as the timing and duration of the growing season across a wide variety of ecosystems. Linear models are routinely used to extrapolate these observed shifts in phenology into the future and to estimate changes in associated ecosystem properties such as net primary productivity. Yet, in nature, linear relationships may be special cases. Biological processes frequently follow more complex, non-linear patterns according to limiting factors that generate shifts and discontinuities, or contain thresholds beyond which responses change abruptly. This study investigates to what extent cambium phenology is associated with xylem growth and differentiation across conifer species of the northern hemisphere., Methods: Xylem cell production is compared with the periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation assessed on a weekly time scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected from the stems of nine species in Canada and Europe over 1-9 years per site from 1998 to 2011., Key Results: The dynamics of xylogenesis were surprisingly homogeneous among conifer species, although dispersions from the average were obviously observed. Within the range analysed, the relationships between the phenological timings were linear, with several slopes showing values close to or not statistically different from 1. The relationships between the phenological timings and cell production were distinctly non-linear, and involved an exponential pattern., Conclusions: The trees adjust their phenological timings according to linear patterns. Thus, shifts of one phenological phase are associated with synchronous and comparable shifts of the successive phases. However, small increases in the duration of xylogenesis could correspond to a substantial increase in cell production. The findings suggest that the length of the growing season and the resulting amount of growth could respond differently to changes in environmental conditions.

Monitoring cambial phenology and intra-annual growth dynamics is a useful approach for characterizing the tree growth response to climate change. However, there have been few reports concerning intra-annual wood formation in lowland temperate forests with high time resolution, especially for the comparison between deciduous and coniferous species. The main objective of this study was to determine how the timing, duration and rate of radial growth change between species as related to leaf phenology and the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) under the same climatic conditions. We studied two deciduous species, Fagus sylvatica L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl., and an evergreen conifer, Pinus sylvestris L. During the 2009 growing season, we weekly monitored (i) the stem radial increment using dendrometers, (ii) the xylem growth using microcoring and (iii) the leaf phenology from direct observations of the tree crowns. The NSC content was also measured in the eight last rings of the stem cores in April, June and August 2009. The leaf phenology, NSC storage and intra-annual growth were clearly different between species, highlighting their contrasting carbon allocation. Beech growth began just after budburst, with a maximal growth rate when the leaves were mature and variations in the NSC content were low. Thus, beech radial growth seemed highly dependent on leaf photosynthesis. For oak, earlywood quickly developed before budburst, which probably led to the starch decrease quantified in the stem from April to June. For pine, growth began before the needles unfolding and the lack of NSC decrease during the growing season suggested that the substrates for radial growth were new assimilates of the needles from the previous year. Only for oak, the pattern determined from the intra-annual growth measured using microcoring differed from the pattern determined from dendrometer data. For all species, the ring width was significantly influenced by growth duration and not by growth rate, which differs from previous studies. The observed between-species difference at the intra-annual scale is key information for anticipating suitability of future species in temperate forests.

Gross primary production (GPP) is the primary source of all carbon fluxes in the ecosystem. Understanding variation in this flux is vital to understanding variation in the carbon sink of forest ecosystems, and this would serve as input to forest production models. Using GPP derived from eddy-covariance (EC) measurements, it is now possible to determine the most important factor to scale GPP across sites. We use long-term EC measurements for six coniferous forest stands in Europe, for a total of 25 site-years, located on a gradient between southern France and northern Finland. Eddy-derived GPP varied threefold across the six sites, peak ecosystem leaf area index (LAI) (all-sided) varied from 4 to 22 m(2) m(-2) and mean annual temperature varied from -1 to 13 degrees C. A process-based model operating at a half-hourly time-step was parameterized with available information for each site, and explained 71-96% in variation between daily totals of GPP within site-years and 62% of annual total GPP across site-years. Using the parameterized model, we performed two simulation experiments: weather datasets were interchanged between sites, so that the model was used to predict GPP at some site using data from either a different year or a different site. The resulting bias in GPP prediction was related to several aggregated weather variables and was found to be closely related to the change in the effective temperature sum or mean annual temperature. High R(2)s resulted even when using weather datasets from unrelated sites, providing a cautionary note on the interpretation of R(2) in model comparisons. A second experiment interchanged stand-structure information between sites, and the resulting bias was strongly related to the difference in LAI, or the difference in integrated absorbed light. Across the six sites, variation in mean annual temperature had more effect on simulated GPP than the variation in LAI, but both were important determinants of GPP. A sensitivity analysis of leaf physiology parameters showed that the quantum yield was the most influential parameter on annual GPP, followed by a parameter controlling the seasonality of photosynthesis and photosynthetic capacity. Overall, the results are promising for the development of a parsimonious model of GPP.