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The impact of inter-group conflict on population dynamics has long been debated, especially for prehistoric and non-state societies. In this work, we consider that beyond direct battle casualties, conflicts can also create a 'landscape of fear' in which many non-combatants near theatres of conflict abandon their homes and migrate away. This process causes population decline in the abandoned regions and increased stress on local resources in better-protected areas that are targeted by refugees. By applying analytical and computational modelling, we demonstrate that these indirect effects of conflict are sufficient to produce substantial, long-term population boom-and-bust patterns in non-state societies, such as the case of Mid-Holocene Europe. We also demonstrate that greater availability of defensible locations act to protect and maintain the supply of combatants, increasing the permanence of the landscape of fear and the likelihood of endemic warfare.

Dendrochronological studies demonstrate a highly dynamic settlement system in prehistoric wetland sites in the northern Alpine forelands. In this article, we apply an agent-based simulation model of the human–environment system to better understand possible causes of these dynamics. Therefore, we formulate a generic quantitative model of land use and calorie supply in Neolithic wetland sites ca. 4300–3700 bc. Archaeological, geographical and palaeoenvironmental data together with information from an agronomic crop yield model (MONICA) are used in an agent-based simulation of Neolithic land use (WELASSIMO model). We fit the generic model to specific conditions at six archaeological sites and their surrounding environments, using local data. In our simulations, annual crop yields fluctuate markedly around a long term mean which starts to decrease after a few years of crop production. Crop plants supply 60–90% of the annual calorie demand. As sources of readily available non-crop calories are needed to compensate potential low crop yields, we argue that Corylus avellana (hazelnuts) were especially important to provide these extra calories; the simulated importance of non-crop calories is 10–40%. Records of human-induced fires are interpreted as being indicative of a strategy to generally open up the woodland canopy and promote the growth of light-demanding hazel. The extent of the different land use methods is quantified and visualized in tiles of 8 km2 around the six study sites. The specific vegetation cover, the importance of hunting and the number of livestock animals have a major effect on the total area required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on hunter-gatherer impact on interglacial vegetation in Europe, using a case study from the Early Holocene (9200–8700 BP). We present a novel agent-based model, hereafter referred to as HUMLAND (HUMan impact on LANDscapes), specifically developed to define key factors in continental-level vegetation changes via assessment of differences between pollen-based reconstruction and dynamic global vegetation model output (climate-based vegetation cover). The identified significant difference between these two datasets can be partially explained by the difference in the models themselves, but also by the fact that climate is not the sole factor responsible for vegetation change. Sensitivity analysis of HUMLAND showed that the intensity of anthropogenic vegetation modification mainly depended on three factors: the number of groups present, their preferences for vegetation openness around campsites, and the size of an area impacted by humans. Overall, both climate and human activities had strong impacts on vegetation openness during the study period. Our modelling results support the hypothesis that European ecosystems were strongly shaped by human activities already in the Mesolithic. • Novel agent-based model designed to explore how diverse factors affected paleo-landscapes. • Study suggests human impact on the environment as the primary non-climate factor affecting landscapes in the Early Holocene. • Modelling results show foragers' impact depends on population size, accessible area and vegetation openness around campsites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling the complex nature of regional knowledge creation is high on the research agenda. It deals with the identification of drivers for regional knowledge creation of different kinds, among them inter-regional networks and agglomeration factors, as well as their interplay; i.e., in which way they influence regional knowledge creation and accordingly, innovation capabilities—in the short- and long-term. Complementing a long line of tradition—establishing a link between regional knowledge input indicators and knowledge output in a regression framework—we propose an empirically founded agent-based simulation model that intends to approximate the complex nature of the multi-regional knowledge creation process for European regions. Specifically, we account for region-internal characteristics, and a specific embedding in the system of region-internal and region-external R&D collaboration linkages. With first exemplary applications, we demonstrate the potential of the model in terms of its robustness and empirical closeness. The model enables the replication of phenomena and current scientific issues of interest in the field of geography of innovation and hence, shows its potential to advance the scientific debate in this field in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• European hares benefit from some alternative energy crops, such as mixed silphie. • Increased crop richness leads to a positive development of hare populations. • Both landscape configuration and composition have significant effects on hares. • Simulating agricultural landscapes opens up new ways to answer envir. questions. The cultivation of energy crops leads to direct and indirect land use changes that impair the biodiversity of the agricultural landscape. In our study, we analyse the effects of mitigation measures on the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus), which is directly affected by ongoing land use change and has experienced widespread decline throughout Europe since the 1960s. Therefore, we developed a spatially explicit and individual-based ecological model to study the effects of different landscape configurations and compositions on hare population development. As an input, we used two 4 × 4 km large model landscapes, which were generated by a landscape generator based on real field sizes and crop proportions and differed in average field size and crop composition. The crops grown annually are evaluated in terms of forage suitability, breeding suitability and crop richness for the hare. In six mitigation scenarios, we investigated the effects of a 10 % increase in the following measures: (1) mixed silphie, (2) miscanthus, (3) grass-clover ley, (4) alfalfa, (5) set-aside, and (6) general crop richness. All mitigation measures had significant effects on hare population development. Compared to the base scenario, the relative change in hare abundance ranged from a factor of 0.56 in the grass-clover ley scenario to -0.16 in the miscanthus scenario. The mitigation measures of mixed silphie, grass-clover ley and increased crop richness led to distinct increases in hare abundance in both landscapes (> 0.3). The results show that both landscape configuration and composition have a significant effect on hare population development, which responds particularly strongly to compositional changes. The increase in crop diversity, e.g., through the cultivation of alternative energy crops such as mixed silphie and grass-clover ley, proves to be beneficial for the brown hare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EU Regulation 2009/72/EC concerning common rules for internal market in electricity calls upon 80% of EU electricity consumers to be equipped with smart metering systems by 2020, provided that a positive economic assessment of all long-term costs and benefits to the market and the individual consumer is guaranteed. Understanding the impact that smart metering systems may have on the electricity stakeholders (consumers, distribution system operators, energy suppliers and the society at large) is important for faster and effective deployment of such systems and of the innovative services they offer. For this purpose, in this paper an agent-based model is developed, where the electricity consumer behaviour due to different smart metering policies is simulated. Consumers are modelled as household agents having dynamic preferences on types of electricity contracts offered by the supplier. Development of preferences depends on personal values, memory and attitudes, as well as the degree of interaction in a social network structure. We are interested in exploring possible diffusion rates of smart metering enabled services under different policy interventions and the impact of this technological diffusion on individual and societal performance indicators. In four simulation experiments and three intervention policies we observe the diffusion of energy services and individual and societal performance indicators (electricity savings, CO2 emissions savings, social welfare, consumers' comfort change), as well as consumers' satisfaction. From these results and based on expert validation, we conclude that providing the consumer with more options does not necessarily lead to higher consumer's satisfaction, or better societal performance. A good policy should be centred on effective ways to tackle consumers concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]