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Farming systems in Europe are experiencing multiple stresses and shocks that may push systems beyond critical thresholds after which system change is expected to occur. These critical thresholds may lie in the economic, environmental, social and institutional domain. In this paper we take a participatory approach with involvement of farming system stakeholders to assess the presence of critical thresholds in 11 European farming systems, and the potential consequence of surpassing those with regard to system sustainability and resilience. First, critical thresholds of the main challenges, key system variables and their interactions in the studied farming systems were assessed. Second, participants assessed the potential developments of the key system variables in case critical thresholds for main system challenges would be exceeded. All studied systems were perceived to be close, at or beyond at least one identified critical threshold. Stakeholders were particularly worried about economic viability and food production levels. Moreover, critical thresholds were perceived to interact across system levels (field, farm, farming system) and domains (social, economic, environmental), with low economic viability leading to lower attractiveness of the farming system, and in some farming systems making it hard to maintain natural resources and biodiversity. Overall, a decline in performance of all key system variables was expected by workshop participants in case critical thresholds would be exceeded. For instance, a decline in the attractiveness of the area and a lower maintenance of natural resources and biodiversity. Our research shows that concern for exceeding critical thresholds is justified and that thresholds need to be studied while considering system variables at field, farm and farming system level across the social, economic and environmental domains. For instance, economic variables at farm level (e.g. income) seem important to detect whether a system is approaching critical thresholds of social variables at farming system level (e.g. attractiveness of the area), while in multiple case studies there are also indications that approaching thresholds of social variables (e.g. labor availability) are indicative for approaching economic thresholds (e.g. farm income). Based on our results we also reflect on the importance of system resources for stimulating sustainability and resilience of farming systems. We therefore stress the need to include variables that reflect system resources such as knowledge levels, attractiveness of rural areas and general well-being of rural residents when monitoring and evaluating the sustainability and resilience of EU farming systems. • Concern on exceeding critical thresholds is justified as studied farming systems are perceived to be close to such thresholds. • Challenges in the environmental domain were least often perceived to have reached critical thresholds. • Economic viability at farm level is a central, interacting critical threshold observed in all farming systems. • The economic, environmental as well as social domain are important for the sustainability and resilience of farming systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965-2007 in Europe (1,115 kg·ha-1 of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg·ha-1). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700-790 kg·ha-1 of cropland (in total 1,070-1,200 teragrams P) is required to achieve crop production according to the various Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios [Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Cramer W (2006) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Vol 2, pp 279-354]. We estimate that average global P fertilizer use must change from the current 17.8 to 16.8-20.8 teragrams per year in 2050, which is up to 50% less than other estimates in the literature that ignore the role of residual soil P. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: For stimulating sustainable development in developing countries, land use patterns and land use changes are considered critical, and therefore effective and efficient land use policies are needed. In this paper we present a methodological framework that has been developed in a joint European and developing countries project (LUPIS – Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries), to assess the impact of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries. An illustrative application is presented for a case study in China, where water pollution due to agriculture in Taihu Basin is a major problem. We argue that an integrated assessment is required, considering multiple drivers and indicators that determine the objectives and constraints of the stakeholders involved. Therefore, the sustainability impact assessment (SIA) is based on the concept of Land Use Functions (LUFs), and impacts on these LUFs are discussed with stakeholders based on a multi-criteria analysis. LUFs comprise economic, environmental and social indicators relevant for stakeholders at multiple scales. Instead of focusing only on the indicators that determine the problem (e.g., nutrient leaching in the Chinese case study), we take a broader perspective (considering also social, economic and institutional objectives and constraints), such that feasible policy options can be recommended. Stakeholders have a large role in discussing the selection of indicators and policies (pre-modelling), evaluating the impacts on indicators (modelling), and the weighing of indicators and LUFs (post-modelling). For the assessment of impacts on indicators (modelling), quantitative and qualitative approaches are combined. We present and discuss an impact assessment of policy options in Taihu Basin, for the current situation and towards 2015. The methodological framework as presented here proved to be useful to guide a sustainability impact assessment in China and six other case study regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A major bottleneck for data-based policy making is that data sources are collected, managed, and distributed by different institutions, residing in different locations, resulting in conceptual and practical problems. The use of dispersed data for agricultural systems research requires the integration of data sources, which means to ensure consistency in data interpretations, units, spatial and temporal scales, to respect legal regulations of privacy, ownership and copyright, and to enable easy dissemination of data. This paper describes the SEAMLESS integrated database on European agricultural systems. It contains data on cropping patterns, production, farm structural data, soil and climate conditions, current agricultural management and policy information. To arrive at one integrated database, a shared ontology was developed according to a collaborative process, which facilitates interdisciplinary research. The paper details this process, which can be re-used in other research projects for integrating data sources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Intensively managed agricultural areas in North-Western Europe have been undergoing a shift from solely production oriented use to provision of multiple services and functions. Design and assessment of multifunctional agricultural landscapes could be supported by exploration of trade-offs between financial returns from agriculture, landscape quality, nature conservation and environmental quality. This paper presents the Landscape IMAGES methodology for spatially explicit exploration of options for multifunctional agriculture in landscapes at a scale of a few km2. The framework has been developed to support discussions and inform decision making by local and regional policy makers, land owners and land managers. Other relevant stakeholders could include non-governmental organizations representing nature conservation and environmental protection objectives. The structure of the Landscape IMAGES framework prototype is elaborated and its functioning is illustrated with a near-real example of a grassland-dominated landscape with hedgerows bordering the fields. In this landscape, four objectives are being pursued by adjusting land-use intensity and hedgerow presence: (1) acceptable agronomic yields for farms, (2) diversification of the botanical composition of fields and hedgerows, (3) variation in plant communities in the fields and half-openness of the landscape, and (4) reduction of nutrient losses to the environment. For exploration of the trade-offs between multiple objectives a heuristic search method (i. E. , differential evolution) is employed, which yields a large range of alternative, acceptable configurations of the landscape. The framework provides explicit insight in the trade-off between the objectives and is implemented in a visual application that enables the comparison of alternative options. The method can be applied to a range of spatially explicit land-use and nature allocation problems and will further evolve as a result of anticipated interactions with stakeholders. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]