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Agricultural land use in Europe has changed considerably in the last decades. However, our understanding of agricultural land use changes, especially changes in land use intensity, is limited because the evidence is fragmented. This paper presents a systematic review of case study evidence on manifestations and underlying drivers for agricultural land use change in Europe. We analyzed 137 studies that together report on 76 cases of intensification and 143 cases of disintensification. Observed changes were manifested as expansion or contraction of agricultural land as well as in changes of land management intensity, landscape elements, agricultural land use activity, and specialization/diversification. Economic, technological, institutional and location factors were frequently identified as underlying drivers, while demographic drivers and sociocultural drivers were mentioned less often. In addition, we found that farmers were very important as moderators between underlying drivers and manifestations of agricultural land use change. Farmer decisions differed between different farmer types, and according to their characteristics and attitudes. We found major land use change trajectories in relation to globalization of agricultural markets, the transition from a rural to an urban society, and the shift to post-socialism in central and eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe''s fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In Europe, emerging organic compounds (EOCs) in groundwater is a growing research area. Prioritisation for monitoring EOCs in Europe was formalised in 2019 through the development of the first voluntary groundwater watch list (GWWL). Despite this, groundwater occurrence data in the peer reviewed literature for Europe has not been reviewed to date. Questions surrounding the effect, toxicity, movement in the subsurface and unsaturated zone make the process of regulating EOC use difficult. The aim in Europe is to develop a unified strategy for the classification, and prioritisation of EOCs to be monitored in groundwater. This paper compiles evidence from the recent published studies from across Europe, since 2012, when the last major literature global review of EOCs in groundwater took place. A total of 39 studies were identified for review based on specific selection criteria (geography, publication date, sample size>10, inclusion of EOCs data). Data on specific compounds, and associated meta-data, are compiled and reviewed. The two most frequently detected EOCs, carbamazepine and caffeine, occurred in groundwater at concentrations of up to 2.3 and 14.8 μg/L, respectively. The most frequently reported category of compounds were 'Pharmaceuticals'; a highly studied group with 135 compounds identified within 31 of the 39 studies. In Europe, the majority of reviewed studies (23) were at a regional scale, looking specifically at EOCs in a specific city or aquifer. The use of analytical methods is not uniform across Europe, and this inevitably influences the current assessment of EOCs in groundwater. A correlation between the number of compounds analysed for, and the number detected in groundwater highlights the need for further studies, especially larger-scale studies throughout Europe. For the development of EU and national regulation, further work is required to understand the occurrence and impacts of EOCs in groundwater throughout Europe and elsewhere. Image 1 • 39 studies reviewed to assess occurrence of EOCs in European groundwater. • Most reported category 'Pharmaceuticals'. • Maximum carbamazepine and caffeine concentrations 2.3 μg/L, and 14.8 μg/L respectively. • Strong correlation between number of compounds screened for and detections. • Standardised reporting needed to assess the current compounds of emerging concern. Assessing the occurrence of emerging organic compounds in European groundwater; implications for environmental exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A systematic review of peri-urban processes in Europe is presented. • Peri-urbanization in Europe can be characterized as a multifaceted process. • In many peri-urban areas, we found multiple co-occurring processes. • These observations challenge the conventional driver – land change – impact framework. Urbanisation patterns in Europe since the 1950s have resulted in a swath of low-density discontinuous development, commonly called peri-urban areas. These areas are characterised by a mixed rural-urban character, are highly dynamic in nature, and are expected to continue growing rapidly in the next few decades. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature on changes in peri-urban areas in Europe. We analysed 142 cases from 121 studies that are spread across Europe, representing a wide range of peri-urban processes. Land cover changes were the most reported changes, followed by socioeconomic changes, land use changes, planning process changes, land management changes, and environmental changes. Over half of the cases reported co-occurring land-cover and socioeconomic processes of change. In addition, we analysed sequential and causal relations between these processes. In this analysis we found that peri-urbanization cannot be conceptualized as driver – land change – impact, because often relations between processes pointed in different directions. Therefore, we characterize peri-urbanization as a multifaceted process that can manifest itself differently in different case study areas. In addition, we found that planning precedes land change processes about as often as it follows these processes, illustrating the specific challenge for planners and policy makers in managing peri-urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]