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Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought‐related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large‐scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that <2°C global warming will increase yields in the higher latitudes, but drought stress in the Mediterranean region could produce low yields (MiscanFor), and significant losses of soil carbon (JULES and IMAGE). These results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling‐up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. This has important policy implications—because prominently used scenarios to limit warming to 'well below 2°C' (including the one explored here) depend upon its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern sustainable bioenergy can contribute toward mid‐century European energy decarbonization targets by replacing fossil fuels. Fulfilling this role would require access to increased volumes of bioenergy, with extra‐EU imports projected to play an important part. Access to this resource on the international marketplace is not governed by Europe's economic competitiveness alone. This study investigates geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory considerations that can influence Europe's bioenergy imports but that are so far underexplored. The effect of these constraints on European import volumes, sourcing regions, mitigation potential, and their implications for European and global emissions is projected to the year 2050 using a global integrated assessment model. The projections show that Europe can significantly increase imports from 1.5 EJ year−1 in 2020 to 8.1 EJ year−1 by 2050 whilst remaining compliant with Renewables Energy Directive recast II (RED II) greenhouse gas (GHG) criteria. Under these conditions, bioenergy could provide annual GHG mitigation of 0.44 GtCO2eq. in 2050. However, achieving this would require a structural diversification of trading partners from the present. Furthermore, socioeconomic and logistical concerns may limit the feasibility of some of the projected major sourcing regions, including Africa and South America. Failure to overcome these challenges within supplying regions could limit European imports by 60%, reducing annual mitigation to 0.16 GtCO2eq. in 2050. From a global perspective, regions with a comparatively carbon‐intense energy system offer an alternative destination for globally traded biomass that could increase the mitigative potential of bioenergy. © 2022 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potential key-technology to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as its use can lead to lower mitigation cost. However, research on other economic impacts of using CCS is scarce. In this paper, we look into economic upstream impacts of CCS use in terms of employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and import dependency on the macro- and sector-level in Western Europe. We determine these impacts by a static comparison of two scenarios of power production with and without CCS (differences in energy efficiency investments between these scenarios were not accounted for). The two scenarios, both representing a stringent climate policy regime, were produced with the energy-system-simulation-model (TIMER) following the same emission profile until 2050. Data from the two scenarios were respectively implemented into a projected version of a global-multiregional IO-Model (EXIOBASE). Macro-level results suggest slightly higher gross employment, but lower Gross Value Added (GVA) (by 25%), and higher import dependency in the CCS-including scenario compared to the CCS-excluding scenario, given that biomass with CCS (BECCS) is available. Sector-level results show disproportionally higher differences between the scenarios in GVA and employment for some sectors compared to other sectors. Particularly, sectors providing fuels (here mostly bio-energy) have significantly higher GVA and employment in the CCS scenario. This study thus reveals interesting upstream economic effects, which can be linked to the technology choice. However, the exact quantitative results depend strongly on model assumptions. Results therefore need to be further explored in other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines to what extent climate change policies will alter the effectiveness of agreed-upon or future policies to reduce regional air pollution in Europe and vice versa. And when is it cost-effective to combat regional air pollution with clean technology instead of add-on technology?For this exercise, several extensions were made to the energy model TIMER, to introduce add-on abatement technologies, specified in terms of costs and reduction potentials, in order to be able to calculate cost-effective emission reduction strategies for different scenarios and regions.The results show that add-on technologies to reduce regional air pollution remain necessary throughout the century. The costs to reach the NOx emission reduction targets in Europe are about three times as high as for SO2. Mitigation costs averaged over the century by add-on technologies can be reduced by climate measures by 50–70% for SO2 and around 50% for NOx. The costs of SO2 and NOx mitigation by add-on technology in a world without climate policy are comparable or in some periods even higher than the costs of an integrated mitigation of SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions if a reduction of specific costs by learning is, in contrast with energy technologies, not assumed for abatement technologies. So, the costs of SO2 and NOx add-on measures avoided by climate policies can outweigh the costs of these climate measures. The total annual costs are in the order of 1 or 2% of the present GDP, depending on the scenario. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH3 emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO2 emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

While pesticides are essential to agriculture and food systems to sustain current production levels, they also lead to significant environmental impacts. The use of pesticides is constantly increasing globally, driven mainly by a further intensification of agriculture, despite stricter regulations and higher pesticide effectiveness. To further the understanding of future pesticide use and make informed farm-to-policy decisions, we developed Pesticide Agricultural Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Pest-AgriSSPs) in six steps. The Pest-Agri-SSPs are developed based on an extensive literature review and expert feedback approach considering significant climate and socio-economic drivers from farm to continental scale in combination with multiple actors impacting them. In literature, pesticide use is associated with farmer behaviour and practices, pest damage, technique and efficiency of pesticide application, agricultural policy and agriculture demand and production. Here, we developed PestAgri-SSPs upon this understanding of pesticide use drivers and relating them to possible agriculture development as described by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems (Eur-Agri-SSPs).The Pest-AgriSSPs are developed to explore European pesticide use in five scenarios representing low to high challenges to mitigation and adaptation up to 2050. The most sustainable scenario (Pest-Agri-SSP1) shows a decrease in pesticide use owing to sustainable agricultural practices, technological advances and better implementation of agricultural policies. On the contrary, the Pest-Agri-SSP3 and Pest-Agri-SSP4 show a higher increase in pesticide use resulting from higher challenges from pest pressure, resource depletion and relaxed agricultural policies. Pest-Agri-SSP2 presents a stabilised pesticide use resulting from stricter policies and slow transitions by farmers to sustainable agricultural practices. At the same time, pest pressure, climate change and food demand pose serious challenges. Pest-Agri-SSP5 shows a decrease in pesticide use for most drivers, influenced mainly by rapid technological development and sustainable agricultural practices. However, Pest-Agri-SSP5 also presents a relatively low rise in pesticide use driven by agricultural demand, production, and climate change. Our results highlight the need for a holistic approach to tackle pesticide use, considering the identified drivers and future developments. The storylines and qualitative assessment provide a platform to make quantitative assumptions for numerical modelling and evaluating policy targets. • We develop scenarios for pesticide use in Europe. • The system diagram presents drivers from the farm-to-continental scale with actors. • Agricultural practices, policies and climate change are significant drivers. • Sustainable scenario: Pest Agri SSP1 results in the lowest future pesticide use. • Highlights the need for a holistic approach to tackling pesticide use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread use of chemicals has led to significant water quality concerns, and their use is still increasing. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand the possible future trends in chemical emissions to water systems. This paper proposes a general framework for developing emission scenarios for chemicals to water using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on an emission-factor approach. The proposed approach involves three steps: (i) identification of the main drivers of emissions, (ii) quantification of emission factors based on analysis of publicly available data, and (iii) projection of emissions based on projected changes in the drivers and emission factors. The approach was tested in Europe for five chemical groups and on a national scale for five specific chemicals representing pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. The resulting emission scenarios show widely diverging trends of increased emissions by 240% for ibuprofen in SSP3 (regional rivalry) to a 68% decrease for diclofenac in SSP1 (sustainable development) by 2050. While emissions typically decrease in SSP1, they follow the historical trend in SSP2 (middle-of-the-road scenario) and show an increase in the regional rivalry scenario SSP3 for most selected chemicals. Overall, the framework allows understanding of future chemical emissions trends as a function of the socio-economic trends as captured in the SSPs. Our scenarios for chemical emissions can thus be used to model future aqueous emissions to support risk assessment. While the framework can be easily extended to other pharmaceuticals and pesticides, it heavily leans on the availability and quality of historical emission data and a detailed understanding of emission sources for industrial chemicals., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)