1. The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics.
- Author
-
Dimeglio, Chloé, Loubes, Jean-Michel, Miedougé, Marcel, Herin, Fabrice, Soulat, Jean-Marc, and Izopet, Jacques
- Subjects
COVID-19 ,EPIDEMIOLOGICAL models ,SEROPREVALENCE ,STAY-at-home orders - Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient's symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF