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The paper shows that visions of the future can be used as a predictor of cooperation and division between actors in their efforts to shape the institutional environment, specifically policy in socio‐technical systems. Accordingly, the paper suggests a new method to analyze visions: a virtual solution space in which visions can be grouped according to their similarity. The similarity of visions is calculated based on cluster analysis. Empirically, the paper focuses on the networks between industry associations in the heating transition in the German building sector. It shows that actors whose visions of future socio‐technical system developments overlap are more likely to cooperate with each other. It also suggests that the fragmentation of the residential heating system in Germany is reflected in a fragmented actor network. Furthermore, the authors show that shared technological interests can outweigh similar visions. These fragmented technological interests hinder meaningful cooperation. This is potentially one reason why a powerful low‐carbon heating coalition in Germany that could facilitate an accelerated deployment of low‐carbon heat systems by driving policy change has not emerged to date. The paper contributes to a better understanding of how niche actors in sustainability transitions use their agency and specifically strategize to bring about institutional change. In this respect, the authors discuss how differing levels of system‐fragmentation influence transition dynamics in general and institutional change dynamics in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decarbonizing the heat sector is a major challenge in the energy transition in Germany and elsewhere. District heating systems could play an important role in this context. However, the diffusion of the technology in Germany has been very slow. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the technological innovation system (TIS) to enhance understandings of the impediments to the diffusion of non-urban district heating systems. Due to its strong local context dependence, district heating can be understood as a configurational technology, and the TIS in which it is embedded as a configurational TIS. The paper contributes to the literature by developing policy suggestions that could lead to an acceleration of the diffusion of locally context-dependent technologies. The author recommends that policymaking in configurational TIS should aim at designing smart innovation system structures that can manage a high level of context specificity and facilitate vertical and horizontal knowledge exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]