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Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean-atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 m/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14 % supplementary weakening in 2080-2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006-2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimental set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released freshwater in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman pumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8 % of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8 % is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent increase in the rate of the Greenland ice sheet melting has raised with urgency the question of the impact of such a melting on the climate. As former model projections, based on a coarse representation of the melting, show very different sensitivity to this melting, it seems necessary to consider a multi-model ensemble to tackle this question. Here we use five coupled climate models and one ocean-only model to evaluate the impact of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 m/s) of freshwater equally distributed around the coast of Greenland during the historical era 1965-2004. The ocean-only model helps to discriminate between oceanic and coupled responses. In this idealized framework, we find similar fingerprints in the fourth decade of hosing among the models, with a general weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Initially, the additional freshwater spreads along the main currents of the subpolar gyre. Part of the anomaly crosses the Atlantic eastward and enters into the Canary Current constituting a freshwater leakage tapping the subpolar gyre system. As a consequence, we show that the AMOC weakening is smaller if the leakage is larger. We argue that the magnitude of the freshwater leakage is related to the asymmetry between the subpolar-subtropical gyres in the control simulations, which may ultimately be a primary cause for the diversity of AMOC responses to the hosing in the multi-model ensemble. Another important fingerprint concerns a warming in the Nordic Seas in response to the re-emergence of Atlantic subsurface waters capped by the freshwater in the subpolar gyre. This subsurface heat anomaly reaches the Arctic where it emerges and induces a positive upper ocean salinity anomaly by introducing more Atlantic waters. We found similar climatic impacts in all the coupled ocean-atmosphere models with an atmospheric cooling of the North Atlantic except in the region around the Nordic Seas and a slight warming south of the equator in the Atlantic. This meridional gradient of temperature is associated with a southward shift of the tropical rains. The free surface models also show similar sea-level fingerprints notably with a comma-shape of high sea-level rise following the Canary Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948–1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of 90Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface 90Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface 90Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980–1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the 90Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released 90Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2×CO2). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released 90Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Arctic is of fundamental importance in the climate system because of the key atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks that occur here. Added to this, global warming has caused intense changes in Arctic climate, with a rise in temperatures during recent decades that is close to twice that of other regions. These rapid changes are a challenge to communities already at risk from many other aspects that have to do with society as whole, in particular with regard to economic and political factors, as well as climatic effects. Loss of sea ice is particularly relevant, with a direct and immediate effect on Arctic communities, in the form of potential increased shipping (and attendant risks) as well as the complex issues involved in Arctic oil and gas exploration, together with effects on fisheries and marine mammals. The ARCPATH project addresses these issues by focusing on changes that will happen in the near future, with the overarching goal of fostering responsible and sustainable development. As well as considering specific aspects of climate and sea-ice changes, the project will focus on socio-economic changes in specific coastal communities in Iceland, Greenland and northern Norway. The project thus needs to take into account both natural and social science perspectives. ARCPATH will focus on knowledge gaps in: 1) improving Arctic climate prediction by reducing uncertainties originating from changes in sea ice and the ocean; 2) increasing understanding and reducing uncertainties regarding how changes in climate interact with many factors relating to local communities, including the development of local and international adaptation measures; and 3) supplying this knowledge as potential pathways to action through innovative adaptation plans for responsible development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]