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Small‐to‐moderate volcanic eruptions can lead to significant surface cooling when they occur clustered, as observed in recent decades. In this study, based on new high‐resolution ice‐core data from Greenland, we produce a new volcanic forcing data set that includes several small‐to‐moderate eruptions not included in prior reconstructions and investigate their climate impacts of the early 19th century through ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find that clustered small‐to‐moderate eruptions produce significant additional global surface cooling (∼0.07 K) during the period 1812–1820, superposing with the cooling by large eruptions in 1809 (unidentified location) and 1815 (Tambora). This additional cooling helps explain the reconstructed long‐lasting cooling after the large eruptions, but simulated regional impacts cannot be confirmed with reconstructions due to a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. This study highlights the importance of small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate simulations as their impacts can be comparable with that of solar irradiance changes. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions can influence global climate through the emission of sulfuric acids shielding Earth from incoming solar radiation. Previous volcanic reconstructions based on ice‐cores from the polar regions, however, only considered very strong volcanic eruptions. In this study, based on new ice‐core measurements from Greenland, we reconstruct for the first time volcanic sulfur emissions from small to medium‐sized eruptions and investigate their impact on climate in the early 19th century through experiments with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We find that clustering of small to medium‐sized eruptions can cause significant global surface cooling (∼0.07 K), which during the 1812–1820 period amplified the cooling caused by the two known large eruptions of the period (1809 unidentified and 1815 Tambora). This additional surface cooling from small eruptions helps explain the long‐lasting cooling after the two strong eruptions generally found in the reconstruction, but the simulated regional impacts cannot be fully confirmed with reconstructions that are too noisy. This study highlights the importance of including small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate model simulations as their impacts are comparable with that of solar irradiance forcing. Key Points: A new ice‐core based reconstruction of volcanic sulfate in the atmosphere (1733–1895) includes small‐to‐moderate eruptionsSmall‐to‐moderate eruptions can induce significant surface cooling and help explain the long‐lasting cooling in the early 19th centuryRegional cooling from small‐to‐moderate eruptions may be influenced by the circulation changes from the 1815 Tambora for over 10 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the mid-6th century was one of the coldest during the last 2 millennia based on multiple paleo-proxies. While the onset of this cold period can be clearly connected to the volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 Common Era (CE), the duration, extent, and magnitude of the cold period are uncertain. Proxy data are sparse for the first millennium, which compounds the uncertainties of the reconstructions. To better understand the mechanisms of the prolonged cooling, we analyze new transient simulations over the Common Era and enhance the representation of mid-6th to 7th century climate by additional ensemble simulations covering 520–680 CE. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to apply the external forcing as recommended in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4. After the four large eruptions in 536, 540, 574, and 626 CE, a significant mean surface climate response in the NH lasting up to 20 years is simulated. The 2 m air temperature shows a cooling over the Arctic in winter, corresponding to the increase in Arctic sea ice, mainly in the Labrador Sea and to the east of Greenland. The increase in sea-ice extent relates to a decrease in the northward ocean heat transport into the Arctic within the first 2 years after the eruptions and to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which peaks 10 years after the eruptions. A decrease in the global ocean heat content is simulated after the eruptions that does not recover during the simulation period. These ocean–sea-ice interactions sustain the surface cooling, as the cooling lasts longer than is expected solely from the direct effects of the volcanic forcing, and are thus responsible for the multi-decadal surface cooling. In boreal summer, the main cooling occurs over the continents at midlatitudes. A dipole pattern develops with high sea level pressure and a decrease in both precipitation and evaporation poleward of 40 ∘ N. In addition, more pronounced cooling over land compared to ocean leads to an enhanced land–sea contrast. While our model ensemble simulations show a similar ∼20 -year summer cooling over NH land after the eruptions as tree ring reconstructions, a volcanic-induced century-long cooling, as reconstructed from tree ring data, does not occur in our simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of whether ocean dynamics are relevant for basin-scale North Atlantic decadal temperature variability is the subject of ongoing discussions. Here, we analyze a set of simulations with a single climate model consisting of a 2000-yr preindustrial control experiment, a 100-member historical ensemble, and a 100-member ensemble forced with an incremental CO2 increase by 1% yr−1. Compared to previous approaches, our setup offers the following advantages: First, the large ensemble size allows us to robustly separate internally and externally forced variability and to robustly detect statistical links between different quantities. Second, the availability of different scenarios allows us to investigate the role of the background state for drivers of the variability. We find strong evidence that ocean dynamics, particularly ocean heat transport variations, form an important contribution to generate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Particularly the northwest North Atlantic is substantially affected by ocean circulation for the historical and preindustrial simulations. Anomalies of the Labrador Sea deep ocean density precede a change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and heat advection to the region south of Greenland. Under strong CO2 forcing, the AMV–SST regression pattern shows crucial changes: SST variability in the northwestern part of the North Atlantic is strongly reduced, so that the AMV pattern in this scenario is dominated by the low-latitude branch. We found a connection to changes in the deep-water formation that cause a strong reduction of the mean AMOC and its variability. Consequently, ocean heat transport convergence becomes less important for the SST variability south of Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]