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A previous study documented a correlation between Atlantic Cod ( Gadus morhua) recruitment in the Gulf of Maine and an annual index of the north component of May winds. This correlation was supported by modeling studies that indicated strong recruitment of Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod results from high retention of spring-spawned larvae in years when winds were predominately out of the north, which favor downwelling. We re-evaluated this relationship using updated recruitment estimates and found that the correlation decreased between recruitment and wind. The original relationship was largely driven by two recruitment estimates, one of which (2005 year-class) was highly uncertain because it was near the terminal year of the assessment. With additional data, the updated assessment estimated lower recruitment for the 2005 year-class, which consequently lowered the correlation between recruitment and wind. We then investigated whether an environmentally-explicit stock recruit function that incorporated an annual wind index was supported by either the original or updated assessment output. Although incorporation of the annual wind index produced a better fitting model, the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and the implied unexploited conditions were not appropriate for providing management advice. These results suggest the need for caution in the development of environmentally-explicit stock recruitment relationships, in particular when basing relationships and hypotheses on recruitment estimates from the terminal years of stock assessment models. More broadly, this study highlights a number of sources of uncertainty that should be considered when analyzes are performed on the output of stock assessment models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We put forward a combined observing and modeling strategy for evaluating effects of environmental forcing on the dynamics of spatially structured cod populations spawning in the western Gulf of Maine. Recent work indicates at least two genetically differentiated complexes in this region: a late spring spawning, coastal population centered in Ipswich Bay, and a population that spawns in winter inshore and on nearshore banks in the Gulf of Maine and off southern New England. The two populations likely differ in trophic interactions and in physiological and behavioral responses to different winter and spring environments. Coupled physical–biological modeling has advanced to the point where within-decade forecasting of environmental conditions for recruitment to each of the two populations is feasible. However, the modeling needs to be supported by hydrographic, primary production and zooplankton data collected by buoys, and by data from remote sensing and fixed station sampling. Forecasts of environmentally driven dispersal and growth of planktonic early life stages, combined with an understanding of possible population-specific predator fields, usage of coastal habitat by juveniles and adult resident and migratory patterns, can be used to develop scenarios for spatially explicit population responses to multiple forcings, including climate change, anthropogenic impacts on nearshore juvenile habitat, connectivity among populations and management interventions such as regional fisheries closures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]