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Mangroves are endemic forest communities in tropical and subtropical coastal zones. China's Hainan Island is very rich in mangrove plant species. In recent years, due to climate change and human disturbance, the living environment of many mangrove distribution areas has been seriously threatened. This study used land satellite series remote sensing images from 1990 to 2020 to monitor the coverage and area changes of mangroves on Hainan Island. The spatial distribution pattern and change trend of mangroves were explored using the standard deviation ellipse method, and the CA–Markov model was used to predict the possible changes of mangroves in the study area in 2025 and 2030. The development trend of mangroves in the future and the driving factors affecting the evolution of mangroves were also analyzed. Over the past 30 years, the area of mangroves has witnessed fluctuations. It decreased from 4578 hectares in 1990 to its lowest at 3870 hectares in 2005 and then rebounded to 4474 hectares by 2020, indicating an initial decline followed by a gradual increase. Although conservation and restoration efforts have yielded success, specific areas have witnessed a decline in mangrove coverage. From 1990 to 2020, mangrove areas in Huiwen decreased from 1055 hectares to 904 hectares, areas in Guannan decreased from 227 hectares to 167 hectares, areas in Xinyinggang decreased from 328 hectares to 298 hectares, areas in Yangpugang decreased from 747 hectares to 682 hectares, areas in Huachangwan decreased from 355 hectares to 327 hectares, and areas in Puqian decreased from 170 hectares to 141 hectares. In particular, the growth in the Eastern and Mayao port areas is especially significant. Additionally, data analysis has revealed the spatial distribution characteristics of mangroves in different regions, such as the mangrove area in Dongzhaigang, which remained relatively stable from 1990 to 2020, while in other areas like Huiwen and Guannan, the mangrove area decreased during these 20 years. By calculating the standard deviation ellipse, we observed that the overall change of mangroves on Hainan Island from 1990 to 2020 was relatively slow, mainly distributed along the northern coastal area of Hainan Island. Furthermore, the standard deviation ellipse and SDE center point of each mangrove growth area have visualized the growth trends of the mangroves. The Markov chain simulation results show that future changes in mangroves will mainly be concentrated in the marginal areas of the mangroves. These areas may be affected by rising sea levels, climate change, soil salinity, and human activities. In the future, mangrove areas are expected to display a dynamic equilibrium, experiencing periods of expansion and reduction, ultimately moving towards a more consistent state. To protect and restore mangroves, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and management of their ecological environment and socio-economic factors and improve their stability and diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]