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Few data are available on frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection among very young children in low- to middle-income countries (LMIC), with the studies that are available biased towards higher income countries with low reported infection and seroconversion rates. Between February 2019 and March 2021, 388 dried blood spot (DBS) samples were obtained from 257 children less than 30 months of age as part of a prospective observational cohort study of pregnant women and their infants in Haiti; longitudinal samples were available for 107 children. In a subsequent retrospective analysis, DBS samples were tested by ELISA for antibody targeting the receptor binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 S1 protein. Over the course of the study, 16·7% of the infants became seropositive. All seropositive samples were collected after March 19, 2020 (the date of the first reported COVID-19 case in Haiti) with the highest hazards measured in August 2020. Sampling date was the only covariate associated with the hazard of seroconversion. Our data provide an estimate of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates among very young children without prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure during the initial pandemic waves in Haiti, and demonstrate that these children mount a detectable serological response which is independent of patient age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of cholera in the midst of an epidemic is largely driven by direct transmission from person to person, although it is well recognized that Vibrio cholerae is also capable of growth and long-term survival in aquatic ecosystems. While prior studies have shown that aquatic reservoirs are important in the persistence of the disease on the Indian subcontinent, an epidemiological view postulating that locally evolving environmental V. cholerae contributes to outbreaks outside Asia remains debated. The single source introduction of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in Haiti, one of the largest outbreaks occurring this century, with 812,586 suspected cases and 9,606 deaths reported through July 2018, provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the role of aquatic reservoirs and assess bacterial transmission dynamics across environmental boundaries. To this end, we investigated the phylogeography of both clinical and aquatic toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates and show robust evidence of the establishment of aquatic reservoirs as well as ongoing evolution of V. cholerae isolates from aquatic sites. Novel environmental lineages emerged from sequential population bottlenecks, carrying mutations potentially involved in adaptation to the aquatic ecosystem. Based on such empirical data, we developed a mixed-transmission dynamic model of V. cholerae, where aquatic reservoirs actively contribute to genetic diversification and epidemic emergence, which underscores the complexity of transmission pathways in epidemics and endemic settings and the need for long-term investments in cholera control at both human and environmental levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spondweni virus (SPONV) and Zika virus cause similar diseases in humans. We detected SPONV outside of Africa from a pool of Culex mosquitoes collected in Haiti in 2016. This finding raises questions about the role of SPONV as a human pathogen in Haiti and other Caribbean countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cholera outbreak began in Haiti during October, 2010. Spatiotemporal patterns of household-level cholera in Ouest Department showed that the initial clusters tended to follow major roadways; subsequent clusters occurred further inland. Our data highlight transmission pathway complexities and the need for case and household-level analysis to understand disease spread and optimize interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti. Methods: Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions. Results: Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots". Conclusions: Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio-temporal dynamics of the communities. Its simplicity should also be used to encourage local participatory collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cholera has affected humans for at least a millennium and persists as a major cause of illness and death worldwide, with recent epidemics in Zimbabwe (2008-2009) and Haiti (2010). Clinically, evidence exists of increasing severity of disease linked with emergence of atypical Vibrio cholerae organisms that have incorporated genetic material from classical biotype strains into an El Tor biotype background. A key element in transmission may be a recently recognized hyperinfectious phase, which persists for hours after passage in diarrheal feces. We propose a model of transmission in which environmental triggers (such as temperature) lead to increases in V. cholerae in environmental reservoirs, with spillover into human populations. However, once the microorganism is introduced into a human population, transmission occurs primary by "fast" transmission from person to person (taking advantage of the hyperinfectious state), without returning to the aquatic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Altered El Tor Vibrio cholerae O1, with classical cholera toxin B gene, was isolated from 16 patients with severe diarrhea at St. Mark's Hospital, Arbonite, Haiti, <3 weeks after onset of the current cholera epidemic. Variable-number tandem-repeat typing of 187 isolates showed minimal diversity, consistent with a point source for the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was thought to have ended in 2019, and the Prime Minister of Haiti declared the country cholera-free in February 2022. On September 25, 2022, cholera cases were again identified in Port-au-Prince. We compared genomic data from 42 clinical Vibrio cholerae strains from 2022 with data from 327 other strains from Haiti and 1,824 strains collected worldwide. The 2022 isolates were homogeneous and closely related to clinical and environmental strains circulating in Haiti during 2012-2019. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicated that the 2022 clinical isolates shared their most recent common ancestor with an environmental lineage circulating in Haiti in July 2018. Our findings strongly suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 can persist for years in aquatic environmental reservoirs and ignite new outbreaks. These results highlight the urgent need for improved public health infrastructure and possible periodic vaccination campaigns to maintain population immunity against V. cholerae.

Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa was introduced involuntarily into Haiti in October 2010, and virtually all of the clinical strains isolated during the first 5 years of the epidemic were Ogawa. Inaba strains were identified intermittently prior to 2015, with diverse mutations resulting in a common phenotype. In 2015, the percentage of clinical infections due to the Inaba serotype began to rapidly increase, with Inaba supplanting Ogawa as the dominant serotype during the subsequent 4 years. We investigated the molecular basis of the serotype switch and confirmed that all Inaba strains had the same level of mRNA expression of the wbeT genes, as well as the same translation levels for the truncated WbeT proteins in the V. cholerae Inaba isolates. Neither wbeT gene expression levels, differential mutations, or truncation size of the WbeT proteins appeared to be responsible for the successful Inaba switch in 2015. Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that the V. cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains and that a significant increase of diversifying selection at the population level occurred at the time of the Ogawa-Inaba switch. We conclude that the emergence of the Inaba serotype was driven by diversifying selection, independent of the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene. IMPORTANCE Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that Vibrio cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains. Our results support the hypothesis that after an initial Ogawa-dominated epidemic wave, V. cholerae Inaba was able to become the dominant strain thanks to a selective advantage driven by ongoing diversifying selection, independently from the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene.

Coronaviruses have caused three major epidemics since 2003, including the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In each case, the emergence of coronavirus in our species has been associated with zoonotic transmissions from animal reservoirs 1,2 , underscoring how prone such pathogens are to spill over and adapt to new species. Among the four recognized genera of the family Coronaviridae, human infections reported so far have been limited to alphacoronaviruses and betacoronaviruses 3-5 . Here we identify porcine deltacoronavirus strains in plasma samples of three Haitian children with acute undifferentiated febrile illness. Genomic and evolutionary analyses reveal that human infections were the result of at least two independent zoonoses of distinct viral lineages that acquired the same mutational signature in the genes encoding Nsp15 and the spike glycoprotein. In particular, structural analysis predicts that one of the changes in the spike S1 subunit, which contains the receptor-binding domain, may affect the flexibility of the protein and its binding to the host cell receptor. Our findings highlight the potential for evolutionary change and adaptation leading to human infections by coronaviruses outside of the previously recognized human-associated coronavirus groups, particularly in settings where there may be close human-animal contact., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

We report the identification of two orthobunyaviruses, Melao virus (MELV) and Oropouche virus (OROV), in plasma specimens from Haitian children with acute febrile illness who presented during outbreaks caused by alpha- and flaviviruses in 2014. Heretofore not described as a human pathogen, MELV was isolated in cell culture from the plasma of five case patients. OROV RNA was detected in the plasma of an additional child, using an unbiased sequencing approach, with phylogenetic inference suggesting a close relationship with strains from Brazil. Abdominal pain was reported by four case patients with MELV infections, with lymphadenopathy noted in two cases. Our findings document the occurrence of these orthobunyaviruses within the Caribbean region and highlight the critical importance of surveillance with viral genome sequence analyses to identify outbreaks caused by these and other emerging viruses., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-transmitted alphavirus that is being recognized with increasing frequency in South America. As part of on-going surveillance of a school cohort in Haiti, we identified MAYV infections in 5 children across a 7-month time span, at two different school campuses. All had a history of fever, and three had headaches; none complained of arthralgias. On analysis of whole genome sequence data, three strains were genotype D, and two were genotype L; phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis was consistent with at least 3 independent introductions of the virus into Haiti, with ongoing transmission of a common genotype D strain in a single school. Our data highlight the clear potential for spread of the virus in the northern Caribbean and North America., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) is the most common cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in developing countries, including Haiti. Our objective was to detect pathogens found in children with ARI in rural Haiti to help develop evidence-based guidelines for treatment and prevention., Methods: Retrospective study of students with ARI at four schools in rural Haiti. Viral and/or bacterial pathogens were identified by qPCR in 177 nasal swabs collected from April 2013 through November 2015., Results: Most common viruses detected were Rhinovirus (36%), Influenza A (16%) and Adenovirus (7%), and bacteria were Streptococcus pneumoniae (58%) and Staphylococcus aureus (28%). Compared to older children, children aged 3-5 years had more Influenza A (28% vs. 9%, p=0.002) and Adenovirus detected (14% vs. 3%, p=0.01). Similarly, S. pneumoniae was greatest in children 3-5 years old (71% 3-5yrs; 58% 6-15 years; 25% 16-20 years; p=0.008). Children 3-10 years old presented with fever more than children 11-20 years old (22% vs 7%; p=0.02) and were more often diagnosed with pneumonia (28% vs 4%, p<0.001)., Conclusions: Younger children had increased fever, pneumonia, and detection of Influenza A and S. pneumoniae. These data support the need for influenza and pneumococcus vaccination in early childhood in Haiti., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Diffusion of cholera and other diarrheal diseases in an informal settlement is a product of multiple behavioral, environmental and spatial risk factors. One of the most important components is the spatial interconnections among water points, drainage ditches, toilets and the intervening environment. This risk is also longitudinal and variable as water points fluctuate in relation to bacterial contamination. In this paper we consider part of this micro space complexity for three informal settlements in Port au Prince, Haiti. We expand on more typical epidemiological analysis of fecal coliforms at water points, drainage ditches and ocean sites by considering the importance of single point location fluctuation coupled with recording micro-space environmental conditions around each sample site. Results show that spatial variation in enteric disease risk occurs within neighborhoods, and that while certain trends are evident, the degree of individual site fluctuation should question the utility of both cross-sectional and more aggregate analysis. Various factors increase the counts of fecal coliform present, including the type of water point, how water was stored at that water point, and the proximity of the water point to local drainage. Some locations fluctuated considerably between being safe and unsafe on a monthly basis. Next steps to form a more comprehensive contextualized understanding of enteric disease risk in these environments should include the addition of behavioral factors and local insight.

Madariaga virus (MADV), also known as South American eastern equine encephalitis virus, has been identified in animals and humans in South and Central America, but not previously in Hispaniola or the northern Caribbean. MADV was isolated from virus cultures of plasma from an 8-year-old child in a school cohort in the Gressier/Leogane region of Haiti, who was seen in April, 2015, with acute febrile illness (AFI). The virus was subsequently cultured from an additional seven AFI case patients from this same cohort in February, April, and May 2016. Symptoms most closely resembled those seen with confirmed dengue virus infection. Sequence data were available for four isolates: all were within the same clade, with phylogenetic and molecular clock data suggesting recent introduction of the virus into Haiti from Panama sometime in the period from October 2012-January 2015. Our data document the movement of MADV into Haiti, and raise questions about the potential for further spread in the Caribbean or North America., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Despite evidence that education and poverty act through distinct pathways to influence sexually transmitted infection (STI), few studies have examined the unique, independent associations of these socioeconomic vulnerabilities with sexual risk behaviors and STI among women., Methods: From August to October 2013, women at an antenatal clinic in Gressier, Haiti, were interviewed and tested for chlamydial infection, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis (N = 200). We measured low educational attainment as less than 9 years of schooling and currently living in poverty based on crowding, defined as more than 2 people sleeping in one room. We used logistic regression to estimate independent associations between each socioeconomic indicator and outcomes of sexual behaviors and STI., Results: Approximately 29% of the sample had a current STI (chlamydia, 8.0%; gonorrhea, 3.0%; trichomoniasis, 20.5%), with 2.5% testing positive for more than 1 STI. Forty percent of the sample reported low educational attainment and 40% reported current poverty. Low educational attainment was associated with early risk behaviors, including twice the odds of earlier sexual debut (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.09; 95% confidence interval [CI],: 1.14-3.84). Poverty was associated with reporting the current main sexual partner to be nonmonogamous (AOR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.00-4.01) and current STI (AOR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.26-4.98)., Conclusions: Education and poverty seem to independently influence STI behaviors and infection, with low education associated with early sexual risk and poverty associated with current risk and infection. Improving women's educational attainment may be important in improving risk awareness, thereby reducing risky sexual behaviors and preventing a trajectory of STI risk.

Motivated by an investigation of the effect of surface water temperature on the presence of Vibrio cholerae in water samples collected from different fixed surface water monitoring sites in Haiti in different months, we investigated methods to adjust for unmeasured confounding due to either of the two crossed factors site and month. In the process, we extended previous methods that adjust for unmeasured confounding due to one nesting factor (such as site, which nests the water samples from different months) to the case of two crossed factors. First, we developed a conditional pseudolikelihood estimator that eliminates fixed effects for the levels of each of the crossed factors from the estimating equation. Using the theory of U-Statistics for independent but non-identically distributed vectors, we show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, but that its variance depends on the nuisance parameters and thus cannot be easily estimated. Consequently, we apply our estimator in conjunction with a permutation test, and we investigate use of the pigeonhole bootstrap and the jackknife for constructing confidence intervals. We also incorporate our estimator into a diagnostic test for a logistic mixed model with crossed random effects and no unmeasured confounding. For comparison, we investigate between-within models extended to two crossed factors. These generalized linear mixed models include covariate means for each level of each factor in order to adjust for the unmeasured confounding. We conduct simulation studies, and we apply the methods to the Haitian data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV), first isolated in Uganda in 1947, is currently spreading rapidly through South America and the Caribbean. In Brazil, infection has been linked with microcephaly and other serious complications, leading to declaration of a public health emergency of international concern; however, there currently are only limited data on the virus (and its possible sources and manifestations) in the Caribbean., Methods: From May, 2014-February, 2015, in conjunction with studies of chikungunya (CHIKV) and dengue (DENV) virus infections, blood samples were collected from children in the Gressier/Leogane region of Haiti who presented to a school clinic with undifferentiated febrile illness. Samples were initially screened by RT-PCR for CHIKV and DENV, with samples negative in these assays further screened by viral culture., Findings: Of 177 samples screened, three were positive for ZIKV, confirmed by viral sequencing; DENV-1 was also identified in culture from one of the three positive case patients. Patients were from two different schools and 3 different towns, with all three cases occurring within a single week, consistent with the occurrence of an outbreak in the region. Phylogenetic analysis of known full genome viral sequences demonstrated a close relationship with ZIKV from Brazil; additional analysis of the NS5 gene, for which more sequences are currently available, showed the Haitian strains clustering within a monophyletic clade distinct from Brazilian, Puerto Rican and Guatemalan sequences, with all part of a larger clade including isolates from Easter Island. Phylogeography also clarified that at least three major African sub-lineages exist, and confirmed that the South American epidemic is most likely to have originated from an initial ZIKV introduction from French Polynesia into Easter Island, and then to the remainder of the Americas., Conclusions: ZIKV epidemics in South America, as well as in Africa, show complex dissemination patterns. The virus appears to have been circulating in Haiti prior to the first reported cases in Brazil. Factors contributing to transmission and the possible linkage of this early Haitian outbreak with microcephaly remain to be determined.

In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.

Since the identification of the first cholera case in 2010, the disease has spread in epidemic form throughout the island nation of Haiti; as of 2014, about 700,000 cholera cases have been reported, with over 8,000 deaths. While case numbers have declined, the more fundamental question of whether the causative bacterium, Vibrio cholerae has established an environmental reservoir in the surface waters of Haiti remains to be elucidated. In a previous study conducted between April 2012 and March 2013, we reported the isolation of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from surface waters in the Ouest Department. After a second year of surveillance (April 2013 to March 2014) using identical methodology, we observed a more than five-fold increase in the number of water samples containing culturable V. cholerae O1 compared to the previous year (1.7% vs 8.6%), with double the number of sites having at least one positive sample (58% vs 20%). Both seasonal water temperatures and precipitation were significantly related to the frequency of isolation. Our data suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 are becoming more common in surface waters in Haiti; while the basis for this increase is uncertain, our findings raise concerns that environmental reservoirs are being established.

Unlabelled: Phylodynamic analysis of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data is a powerful tool to investigate underlying evolutionary processes of bacterial epidemics. The method was applied to investigate a collection of 65 clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae from Haiti collected between 2010 and 2012. Characterization of isolates recovered from environmental samples identified a total of four toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates, four non-O1/O139 isolates, and a novel nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolate with the classical tcpA gene. Phylogenies of strains were inferred from genome-wide SNPs using coalescent-based demographic models within a Bayesian framework. A close phylogenetic relationship between clinical and environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains was observed. As cholera spread throughout Haiti between October 2010 and August 2012, the population size initially increased and then fluctuated over time. Selection analysis along internal branches of the phylogeny showed a steady accumulation of synonymous substitutions and a progressive increase of nonsynonymous substitutions over time, suggesting diversification likely was driven by positive selection. Short-term accumulation of nonsynonymous substitutions driven by selection may have significant implications for virulence, transmission dynamics, and even vaccine efficacy., Importance: Cholera, a dehydrating diarrheal disease caused by toxigenic strains of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, emerged in 2010 in Haiti, a country where there were no available records on cholera over the past 100 years. While devastating in terms of morbidity and mortality, the outbreak provided a unique opportunity to study the evolutionary dynamics of V. cholerae and its environmental presence. The present study expands on previous work and provides an in-depth phylodynamic analysis inferred from genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of clinical and environmental strains from dispersed geographic settings in Haiti over a 2-year period. Our results indicate that even during such a short time scale, V. cholerae in Haiti has undergone evolution and diversification driven by positive selection, which may have implications for understanding the global clinical and epidemiological patterns of the disease. Furthermore, the continued presence of the epidemic strain in Haitian aquatic environments has implications for transmission., (Copyright © 2014 Azarian et al.)

In October, 2010, epidemic cholera was reported for the first time in Haiti in over 100 years. Establishment of cholera endemicity in Haiti will be dependent in large part on the continued presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in aquatic reservoirs. The rugose phenotype of V. cholerae, characterized by exopolysaccharide production that confers resistance to environmental stress, is a potential contributor to environmental persistence. Using a microbiologic medium promoting high-frequency conversion of smooth to rugose (S-R) phenotype, 80 (46.5%) of 172 V. cholerae strains isolated from clinical and environmental sources in Haiti were able to convert to a rugose phenotype. Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated at the beginning of the epidemic (2010) were significantly less likely to shift to a rugose phenotype than clinical strains isolated in 2012/2013, or environmental strains. Frequency of rugose conversion was influenced by incubation temperature and time. Appearance of the biofilm produced by a Haitian clinical rugose strain (altered biotype El Tor HC16R) differed from that of a typical El Tor rugose strain (N16961R) by confocal microscopy. On whole-genome SNP analysis, there was no phylogenetic clustering of strains showing an ability to shift to a rugose phenotype. Our data confirm the ability of Haitian clinical (and environmental) strains to shift to a protective rugose phenotype, and suggest that factors such as temperature influence the frequency of transition to this phenotype.

An epidemic of cholera infections was documented in Haiti for the first time in more than 100 years during October 2010. Cases have continued to occur, raising the question of whether the microorganism has established environmental reservoirs in Haiti. We monitored 14 environmental sites near the towns of Gressier and Leogane during April 2012-March 2013. Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor biotype strains were isolated from 3 (1.7%) of 179 water samples; nontoxigenic O1 V. cholerae was isolated from an additional 3 samples. All samples containing V. cholerae O1 also contained non-O1 V. cholerae. V. cholerae O1 was isolated only when water temperatures were ≥31°C. Our data substantiate the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in the aquatic environment in Haiti. These isolations may reflect establishment of long-term environmental reservoirs in Haiti, which may complicate eradication of cholera from this coastal country.

Cholera is still a major public health problem. The underlying bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae) is evolving and some of its mutations have set the stage for outbreaks. After V. cholerae acquired the mobile elements VSP I & II, the El Tor pandemic began and spread across the tropics. The replacement of the O1 serotype encoding genes with the O139 encoding genes triggered an outbreak that swept across the Indian subcontinent. The sxt element generated a third selective sweep and most recently a fourth sweep was associated with the exchange of the El Tor ctx allele for a classical ctx allele in the El Tor background. In Kenya, variants of this fourth selective sweep have differentiated and become endemic residing in and emerging from environmental reservoirs. On a local level, studies in Bangladesh have revealed that outbreaks may arise from a nonrandom subset of the genetic lineages in the environment and as the population of the pathogen expands, many novel mutations may be found increasing the amount of genetic variation, a phenomenon known as a founder flush. In Haiti, after the initial invasion and expansion of V. cholerae in 2010, a second outbreak occurred in the winter of 2011-2012 driven by natural selection of specific mutations.

Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating models and the need to tailor models for different outbreak scenarios.

Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (R(0)). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. R(0) varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an (R(0)) <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.