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Biodiversity is profoundly influenced by habitat quality, and Harbin, a provincial capital situated in a cold climate zone, stands out as one of China's regions most susceptible to the repercussions of climate change. To ensure the city's continued sustainable growth, a thorough assessment of habitat quality must be conducted. This study employs a comprehensive approach integrating the InVEST model, the PLUS model, a landscape pattern analysis, geographic detector, and a geographically weighted regression model. The goal is to assess how land use and habitat quality have changed in Harbin City, investigate factors contributing to spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, thoroughly examine evolutionary patterns under the inertial development scenario from 2030 to 2050, and propose spatial optimization strategies. There are four key findings. First, from 2000 to 2020, agricultural land and forest were Harbin City's two most prevalent land use types. The most notable transition occurred from forest to grassland, and the expansion of construction land primarily resulted from its encroachment into agricultural areas. Second, within the area of study, the landscape heterogeneity increased while simultaneously experiencing a decrease in connectivity, and the landscape had a tendency toward a more fragmented spatial distribution. Third, overall habitat quality rose between 2000 and 2020 but declined between 2030 and 2050. There was a "weak in the west and high in the east" distribution pattern in the spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality. Fourth, population density has the most impact on habitat quality, with the NDVI and GDP close behind. Conversely, precipitation and slope had comparatively smaller influences on habitat quality. Natural factors combined had a primarily favorable influence on habitat quality across the research region in terms of spatial distribution. Conversely, population density had a discernibly detrimental impact. Given these findings, this study suggests targeted strategies to optimize habitat quality. These recommendations are relevant not only for biodiversity conservation but also for the development of an ecologically sustainable community, particularly in a cold climate region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]