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In this paper, according to the characteristics of rock salt deposits and surrounding rock in the Ningjin area of Hebei, China, layered transfer theory and modified probability integral theory are used to conduct an in-depth study and quantitative evaluation of the surface deformation characteristics of the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: the calculation results of the layered transfer model show that as the cavity increases, the settlement of the center point of the surface increases from 59 to 227 mm in the range of 100–1500 m, and the maximum influence area of the surface reaches 1.30 × 107 m2. The calculation results of the modified probability integral theory model show that as the mined cavity increases, the settlement of the surface center point increases from 23 to 351 mm in the range of 100–1500 m, and the maximum surface influence area reaches 1.04 × 107 m2. The results of the two theoretical calculations accurately indicate the relationship between the mining cavern and the surface subsidence and the influence range of the surface, which has important guiding significance for the safe mining of Ningjin salt mines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]