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• An evaluation system was constructed more in line with the water resource carrying capacity in the eastern region of the Heilongjiang Province. • The improved TOPSIS model adopts a new method of assigning weights. • It avoids the deviation caused by subjective factors in the traditional analytic hierarchy process. • It avoids the emergence of extreme weights using the anti-entropy weighting method. Assessments and analyses of the water resource carrying capacity provide practical guidance for regional water resource planning and water resource management. The water resource carrying capacity index system and the corresponding level criteria are constructed from the perspective of the carrying capacity subsystem. Additionally, a water resource carrying capacity model is constructed using the improved TOPSIS method. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the water resource carrying capacity in the study area from 2009 to 2018 is conducted, with the eastern part of Heilongjiang as a case study. The results show that the combination of the improved AHP and the anti-entropy weighting method can avoid the bias caused by subjective factors in the traditional AHP and the bias caused by the randomness of data in the entropy weighting method, yielding accurate estimates of the water resource carrying capacity. A new method of assigning weights in TOPSIS models is developed. In addition, the water resource carrying capacity of the studied cities is generally in state III (Moderate) in the eastern region of Heilongjiang, and the multiyear average value obtained from the comprehensive evaluation is 0.4581. The Qitaihe and Hegang areas have higher water resource carrying capacities than other areas. Overall, water resource and societal factors have an obvious influence on the water resource carrying capacity in the eastern region of Heilongjiang, and these factors vary in different areas. The water supply modulus and proportion of water used for agricultural irrigation have the greatest effects on the water resource carrying capacity in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]