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In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health-care workers (HCWs) are an epidemiological group with increased exposure to tuberculosis (TB), especially at health-care facilities (HCFs) with poor TB infection control in high-TB-burden settings. China is a high-TB-burden country, and the comprehensive measures for stopping TB transmission at some HCFs were not implemented well owing to limited resources and other factors. The purpose of this study was to review risk of occupational exposure to TB among HCWs and its change trend, and identify epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among HCWs in Henan, central part of China.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2010 to 2017. All HCWs and teachers in Henan were enrolled to the study as exposed group and non-exposed control group, respectively. Relative risk (RR), attributable risk (AR) and AR percent (AR%) were used to measure the association between the occupational exposure and PTB, and estimated with Poisson regression.Results: The study results showed a total of 1663 cases of PTB were reported among the HCWs in Henan, accounting for 3.2‰ of all PTB cases reported in the whole population, and annual incidence rate of PTB among HCWs declined by 34% from 2010 to 2017. Over the eight years, the incidence rate of PTB among HCWs was 43.7 cases per 100,000 person-years (PYs), significantly higher than that among teachers (18.8 cases/100,000 PYs), and RR, AR and AR% were estimated to 2.3, 24.9 cases per 100,000 PYs and 57%, respectively. Among HCWs, males were more likely to suffer from PTB than females (adjusted RR: 1.3; 95%CI: 1.2-1.4), and HCWs aged under 25 years had the highest relative risk over all age groups with adjusted RR equaling to 8.3 (95%CI: 6.9-9.9) calculated with those aged 45-54 years as the reference.Conclusions: Although overall incidence rate of PTB among HCWs showed decreasing temporal trends over the period of 2010-2017, attributable risk of occupational exposure to TB among HCWs did not decrease in Henan, and TB infection at HCFs for males, young or senior HCWs, especially for young HCWs is of much concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2013, a tuberculosis (TB) outbreak occurred in a middle school in Henan province of China. An outbreak survey was carried out in the school. Objectives: This study was undertaken to investigate the detection rate of TB cases and those with strong Mantoux positive (SMP), defined as tuberculin skin test (TST) indurations of 15mm or larger and/or blisters, necrosis or lymphangitis, and to identify their risk factors. Methods: The TST, chest x-ray/radiography, and TB-suspicious symptoms interview were used to screen for TB cases. Their diagnosis was made by sputum smear microscopy, liquid culture, computed tomography (CT), and diagnostic therapy if necessary. We retrospectively analyzed the outbreak survey data of 4082 students and 278 staff in the school. Logistic regression models were used to identify the risk factors associated with SMP and TB disease. Results: Approximately 3.55% of students and 16.55% of staff were SMP. SMP rate in students was significantly lower than that in staff (p<0.001). 55 TB cases in students and none in staff were identified in the school from February to November, 2013, with a detection rate of 1.35% for students. SMP and TB case detection rates were 20.29% and 41.77%, respectively, in the index class, both significantly higher than that in the other classes (3.26% and 0.55%, respectively; both p<0.001). In the index class, TB case detection rate over the study period in students with SMP was not significantly higher than that with TST indurations of <15mm (38.18% vs 21.43%, p = 0.24), but it was significantly higher in the other classes (7.81% vs 0.18%, p<0.001). Risk factors independently associated with SMP and TB cases shared the following with the index case: same dormitory-floor (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 5.36, 95% CI 3.02–9.48, p<0.001 for SMP; AOR 2.67; 95% CI 1.03–6.96, p = 0.044 for TB cases), same classroom (AOR 4.01; 95% CI 1.95–8.26, p<0.001 for SMP; AOR 165.08; 95% CI 66.88–407.47, p<0.001 for TB cases), same teaching-floor in different classroom (AOR 5.41; 95% CI 3.02–9.71, p<0.001 for SMP; AOR 11.24; 95% CI 3.71–34.03, p<0.001 for TB cases) and same teaching-building on different floor (AOR 1.81; 95% CI 1.16–2.85, p = 0.009 for SMP; AOR 3.30; 95% CI 1.16–9.42, p = 0.025 for TB cases). The closer the contact was with the index case, the larger the AORs for SMP and TB cases were. Conclusion: Same dormitory-floor, same classroom, same teaching-floor and same teaching-building with the index case were all risk factors for both TB infection and disease for students in the outbreak, and the closer the contact was with the index case, the higher the risk was observed. Attention should also be paid to students with TST indurations <15mm, as well as to those with that ≥15mm for the index class in dealing with the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline, the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence should be 20 and 50% in 2020 and 2025, respectively. The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9% of the global total in 2018, which ranked the second high in the world. From 2007 to 2019, 854 672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province, China. This study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province. Methods: The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019, registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025, which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones. The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016, and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019. The Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the model. The statistically significant level is α = 0.05. Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 2020 to 2025 were predicted. Results: High active PTB registration rates in March, April, May and June showed the seasonal variations. The exponential smoothing winter's multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model. The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019. The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1 (95% CI: 36.2–62.0) per 100 000 population and 34.4 (95% CI: 18.6–50.2) per 100 000 population in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015, the reduction will reach 23.7% (95% CI, 3.2–44.1%) and 46.8% (95% CI, 21.4–72.1%) in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Conclusions: The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province. Without regard to the CI, the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved. However, the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]