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• Constant ice density assumption produces significant bias. • Glaciers in the Indus are losing mass similar to the rest of Asia. • The western and central Karakoram glaciers are losing negligible mass. • Indus Basin contributes about 0.014 mm a−1 to global sea-level rise. Glaciers in the upper Indus supply more than half of the river water, are experiencing significant melting with a debated fate. The recent melting rate is still contained by considerable uncertainties, hindering to estimate precise glacier mass change. Here we present geodetic mass balance results for the whole Indus Basin using SRTM and ALOS 30 m elevation data, improved glacier inventory, optimized glacier surface density, and validation through in-situ differential GPS and ICESat data. Our glacier inventory and derived by improving RGI6.0 boundaries and separated into debris cover and debris free parts. The derived surface elevation changes were converted into annual mass balances using separated density assumptions (four criteria) for debris-covered ice (900 ± 60 kg m−3), debris-free ice (below 20° and 25° slopes (850 ± 60 kg m−3) and above 20° and 25° slopes (600 ± 60 kg m−3)), respectively. The resulting mass balance biased between −0.20 and 0.09 m water equivalent (w.e.) a-1 using an average (850 ± 60 kg m−3) density assumption throughout the Indus Basin. In the western Himalaya and Hindu Kush, the glacier mass losses are less affected by the average density assumption compared to the Karakoram. The western (Hunza) and central (Shigar) Karakoram glaciers show negligible mass losses of −0.02 ± 0.12 and −0.01 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1 in contrast to the relatively more negative mass balance (−0.26 ± 0.21 m w.e. a−1) in the eastern (Shyok) Karakoram. All the sub-basins exhibit negative mass balances, with the most negative values ranging from −0.34 ± 0.31 to 0.44 ± 0.27 m w.e. a−1 in the Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum sub-basins of the Himalaya. The whole Indus Basin contributes approximately +0.014 ± 0.016 mm a−1 to the global mean sea-level equivalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal and annual water supplies of the rivers originating in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan are important to manage the Indus basin irrigation system for better agricultural production and its dependent agrarian economy. In this study, we simulated the current and future snowmelt runoff in a poorly gauged river basin of the Hindukush region under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) furnished with satellite snow cover maps and hydro-meteorological data were used to simulate the daily river discharge for the period 2000‒2005. The results indicated that SRM has effectually simulated the runoff in Chitral River with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.85 (0.84) and 0.88 (0.83) in the basin-wide (zone-wise) application during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results obtained under future climate change scenario showed ∼14‒19% increase in mean summer discharge under three mid-21st century RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. While an increase of ∼13‒37% is expected under late-21st century RCP scenarios. This study can help water resource managers to plan and manage peak discharges from the Chitral River Basin in the future and can thus prevent major losses due to floods in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]