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• Narcotraffickers clear forest to claim territory and build airstrips along transit routes • Profits from cocaine transit are sometimes laundered by clearing forested land for agribusiness • Increased narcotrafficking showed a causal effect on forest loss in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala • Including narcotrafficking variables in forest loss models increased explained variance by 5-9% • News media data can serve as a proxy for illicit transaction when official data is inadequate over time and space Illegal activity, such as deforestation for illicit crops for cocaine production, has been inferred as a cause of land change. Nonetheless, illicit activity is often overlooked or difficult to incorporate into causal inference models of land change. Evidence continues to build that narcotrafficking plays an important, yet often unreported, role in forest loss. This study presents a novel strategy to meet the challenge of estimating the causal effect of illicit activity in land change using consolidated news media reports to estimate the relationship between drug trafficking and accelerated forest loss in Central America. Drug trafficking organizations engage in illegal land transactions, money laundering, and territorial control that can manifest as forest conversion to agriculture or pasture land uses. Longitudinal data on 50 sub-national units over a period of 16 years (2001-2016) are used in fixed effects regressions to estimate the role of narcotrafficking in forest loss. Two narcotrafficking activity proxies were developed as explanatory variables of forest loss: i) an "official" proxy from drug seizures data within 14 sub-national units; and, ii) an "unofficial" proxy developed from georeferenced news media accounts of narcotrafficking events. The effect of narcotrafficking was systematically compared to the other well-known causes of forest loss, such as rural population growth and other conventional drivers. Both proxies indicate narcotrafficking is a statistically significant (p<0.01) contributor to forest loss in the region, particularly in Nicaragua (p<0.05, official proxy), Honduras (p<0.05, media proxy), and Guatemala (p<0.05, media proxy). Narcotrafficking variables explain an additional 5% (media proxy) and 9% (official proxy) of variance of forest loss not captured by conventional models. This study showed the ability of news media data to capture the signal of illicit activity in land use changes such as forest loss. The methods employed here could be used to estimate the causal effect of illicit activities in other land and environmental systems. Our results suggest that current drug policy, which concentrates drug trafficking in remote areas of very high cultural and environmental value, has helped to accelerate the loss of Central America's remaining forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The narco-deforestation observed in PAs represents an institutional shift as DTOs enter landscapes, undermine existing conservation institutions, and establish forms of rule within territories designated for conservation. • Drug trafficking impacts conservation governance in three primary ways: 1) violence and corruption undermine long standing conservation coalitions; 2) drug profits capitalize extractive economic booms inside protected lands; and 3) trafficking organizations erode territorial control of conservation institutions and exploit strict "fortress" conservation governance models. • Conservation models may better resist DTO influence when institutions are arranged to support local decision-making about resources, and incentivize local leadership in conservation with strong expectations of land tenure. This research is motivated by the compelling finding that the illicit cocaine trade is responsible for extensive patterns of deforestation in Central America. This pattern is most pronounced in the region's large protected areas. We wanted to know how cocaine trafficking affects conservation governance in Central America's protected areas, and whether deforestation is a result of impacts on governance. To answer this question, we interviewed conservation stakeholders from key institutions at various levels in three drug-trafficking hotspots: Peten, Guatemala, Northeastern Honduras, and the Osa Peninsula in Costa Rica. We found that, in order to establish and maintain drug transit operations, drug-trafficking organizations compete with and undermine conservation governance actors and institutions. Drug trafficking impacts conservation governance in three ways: 1) it undermines long standing conservation coalitions; 2) it fuels booms in extractive activities inside protected lands; and 3) it erodes the territorial control that conservation institutions exert, exploiting strict "fortress" conservation governance models. Participatory governance models that provide locals with strong expectations of land tenure and/or institutional support for local decision-making may offer resistance to the impacts on governance institutions that we documented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]