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Appropriate training can only be developed if training needs for specific skills are carefully identified. This paper, further to an aggregate model developed previously, aims to forecast the occupational share of the aggregate manpower demand for the construction industry of Hong Kong. The forecast, based on existing manpower statistics, is divided into two levels: broad occupations and detailed occupations. The broad occupational demand forecasting model is formulated using a time-series regression analysis to derive the relationship between the occupational share and the construction output cycle, technology, and various work-mix variables; whereas exponential smoothing technique is used to forecast the share of detailed occupations. This occupational demand estimation can provide solid information to facilitate manpower planning. It enables the policymakers to foresee the trends of occupational manpower demand and formulate policies and training and retraining programs tailored to deal effectively with the industry’s human resource requirements in this critical sector of the economy. Although the study focuses on developing models for the Hong Kong construction labor market, the adopted methodology can be applied in other labor markets to develop such models for manpower planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of construction in economic development is an important issue facing the construction research community, government and international development agencies. Based on empirical analyses, the complexities of the relationship between construction activity and stage of economic development in Hong Kong were examined. With time series data, Granger causality test results show that the construction output particularly the infrastructure sector drives the economic growth of Hong Kong, and not vice versa. Findings further indicate that the role of the local construction industry changes as the economy matures from newly industrializing country (NIC) to advanced industrialized country (AIC) status, as revealed by the diminishing rate of capacity addition by construction as well as the growing maintenance and repair sector. This complies with Bon's inverted U-shaped relationship between construction activity and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the proposition of 'volume follows share' is not supported since the indigenous construction investments still sustain for the service-oriented economy which inevitably needs commercial development and logistics infrastructure to provide the services. The results may be significant for policy makers in NICs, in the long run, to formulate corporate and industrial policies to chart out a viable and sustainable course to revive the vigour of the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on appraisal bias and summarizes three hypotheses for systematic bias: behavior contention, options-value, and different-base-of-valuation. A case study based in Hong Kong is presented that portrays empirical evidence of appraisal bias in land premiums. Land premium appraisals are analyzed because they can help keep the depreciation factor constant and provide good pairs of transaction price and estimate. These appraisals are collected from published estimates, which eliminate the client-agent heuristic. Among the 343 appraisals of land premiums for 109 auctions of land in Hong Kong from 1991 to 1999, evidence of an 8% systematic appraisal downward bias is found in appraisers' estimates against the final bid prices. Although it can be explained plausibly by appraiser-behavior contention, there is also empirical evidence supporting the other two hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efficient manpower planning has been recognized as a critical aspect for the development of an economy. In 2001, the Works Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government (predecessor of Environment, Transport and Works Bureau) commissioned an HKPolyU consultancy team to develop a computer-based model to estimate the demand for different categories of construction personnel. This article presents the concept and features of the manpower demand-forecasting model developed for the construction industry of Hong Kong. The forecasting model is formulated on the basis of the labour multiplier approach by deriving the relationship between the number of workers required and the project expenditure in the given project duration. Multipliers for 61 project types were derived for 38 labour trades using completed project data. The labour demand by occupation for each project can then be estimated by multiplying the corresponding multipliers and the estimated project expenditure. Several unique features of the model have been developed, including 'normalization' and 'contract cost adjustment factor'. Normalizing the labour multipliers can facilitate the prediction of occupational labour requirements at different stages of a construction project. The adjustment factor is introduced to eliminate the discrepancy between the original estimates and final contract values so as to enhance the estimation accuracy. The model can also be used to predict the number of jobs created for a given level of investment. The government can apply this model to check and compare which project types will generate most jobs before committing public money. This model could be easily adopted and adapted by foreign construction authorities while planning manpower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labour resources are invaluable assets in the construction industry. Nurturing a quality workforce and promoting stable employment for construction personnel have often been advocated as part and parcel of an industrial policy. Yet, the future labour market of the industry is always uncertain, and there is a need for estimating future labour market conditions as an aid to policy formulation and implementation. The Box‐Jenkins approach has been applied to develop Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to analyse and forecast five key indicators in the construction labour market of Hong Kong: employment level, productivity, unemployment rate, underemployment rate and real wage. This approach can be adopted in more complex and diverse labour markets subject to the properties of the utilized data series. Quarterly time‐series statistics over the period 1983–2002 are used in this study. The predictive adequacy of the models derived is evaluated with out‐of‐sample forecasts in comparison with actual data, based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's U statistics. The results indicate that except for construction employment, the proposed forecasting models have reasonably good predictive performance. Among the five case studies, the most accurate is the construction real wages model. In addition, we conclude that univariate projection is not an appropriate method for forecasting construction employment in Hong Kong. Multivariate structural forecasting analysis should be adopted in order to obtain more accurate estimates. The developed models can be used to provide benchmark estimates for further analysis of the construction labour market and the projections offer valuable information and early signals to training providers and employment policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry is a very competitive high-risk business. Many problems, such as little cooperation, lack of trust, and ineffective communication resulting in adversarial relationships between contracting parties, are facing the construction industry. Partnering is perhaps one of the most innovative developments in delivering a project efficiently and reducing construction disputes. It provides a sound basis for a “win-win” climate and synergistic teamwork. Project partnering in the Hong Kong construction industry has gained in popularity since 1994. A number of potential factors contributing to partnering success have emerged and deserve further study. This paper presents a review of the development of the partnering concept in general and identifies critical success factors for partnering projects from the Hong Kong perspective in particular. Through a postal questionnaire survey geared toward project participants with hands-on partnering experience, the opinions of various parties—clients, consultants, and contractors were sought and evaluated in relation to partnering success factors. The relationship between the perception of partnering success and a set of success factors hypothesized in the study was derived using factor analysis and multiple regression. The results indicated that certain requirements must be met for partnering to succeed. In particular, the establishment and communication of a conflict resolution strategy, a willingness to share resources among project participants, a clear definition of responsibilities, a commitment to a win-win attitude, and regular monitoring of partnering process were believed to be the significant underlying factors for partnering success. Such an identification of success factors could well formulate effective strategies for minimizing construction conflicts and improving project performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines whether real estate and financial assets in Hong Kong can hedge against inflation. Comparison between inflation rates and rates of return; Details of cointegration techniques for hedging inflation in the territory.